Special Weather Statement, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
356 PM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through late tonight into Monday morning.
Weak high pressure then regains control through most of Tuesday.
A cold front approaches late in the day and passes through
during Tuesday night. A series of cold fronts will pass through
the area for the second half of the week with high pressure
returning next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
In the warm sector of a frontal system, showers and some
thunderstorm development remains possible through this afternoon
and evening with a marginal risk for thunderstorms to be strong
to severe. However, as a result of more persistent cloud cover
during the day, temperatures have not risen as high as expected
so that has cut back on some instability. Any thunderstorms can
produce heavy rain with PWATs in the 1.5 - 1.7 inch range. WPC
does have portions of NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley in a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall, though this will only be
realized if there are training thunderstorms.

Otherwise, the cold front approaches and passes through tonight and
into early Monday morning. Low temperatures tonight will be in the
middle 60s for inland areas to the low 70s for coastal areas. Some
patchy fog development tonight is possible with a moist BL and
generally clearing skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front slowly sinks south on Monday with any early
patchy fog burning off mid-morning. A mix of sun and clouds in
the morning will become increasingly clear during the afternoon
and evening as a weak high pressure tries to move in from the
west. High temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s and
potentially low 90s for portions of the NYC metro and NE NJ. Dew
points will be generally in the low 60s though so heat index
values will not be much more than the actual air temperature.

Skies remain mostly clear into Monday night with low
temperatures in the middle 60s for the interior to low 70s for
the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Not a whole lot of change the last 24h as global models are in
relatively good agreement with establishing a mean upper trough
across the Northeast. A series of disturbances in the NW flow aloft
will then send a couple of cold fronts through the area during this
time, the first moving through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
and the second Thursday night into Friday. At the same time, a large
upper high will encompass the western half of the country.

A round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected along and ahead
of each cold frontal passage. Post-frontal showers and/or an
isolated thunderstorm will be possible Wednesday afternoon.
Upper trough is not strong this go around and airmass is not quite
as unstable (mid level lapse rates less than 6C) as it was 24h ago.
Warm advection showers and few thunderstorms will be a possible
Thursday ahead of what looks to be nighttime cold frontal passage
Thursday night into Friday morning. High pressure builds in for the
start of next weekend.

After a very warm Tuesday, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s,
more seasonable temperatures are expected for the second half of the
week heading into next weekend, with highs generally in the 80s and
lows in the 60s to around 70. Cooler conditions are possible
overnight well inland with the possibility of radiational cooling,
but that will be dependent on cloud coverage an wind speeds.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak cold front approaching will move across late tonight and move
south of the terminals Monday.

A few terminals with lingering MVFR stratus this afternoon will
eventually scatter out late this afternoon into start of this
evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop and move
southeast across terminals late this afternoon into early this
evening. Confidence is higher on thunderstorm occurrence at western
terminals where there is a tempo group and for NYC terminals this is
between 21 and 00Z.

Unsure of how well thunderstorms hold together thereafter so no
tempos for thunder after 00Z and east of NYC terminals.
Thunderstorms could bring a brief period of MVFR to IFR as well as
gusty winds of 30-40 kt. An isolated severe storm could also move
through with gusts of 50+ kt, but there is a very low chance of this
occurring. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions expected for remainder
of TAF period with exception being terminals outside of NYC late
tonight into early Monday morning with some patchy fog and MVFR
conditions.

S to SW winds will be around 10-15 kt, with gusts up to near 20
kt into early evening. S to SW winds subside to 5-10 kt this
evening and will shift more to the W late tonight at around 5
kt. Winds become NW Monday morning near 5 kt and then sea
breezes are expected for Monday afternoon with wind speeds near
10 kt.

  ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
MVFR end time could be off by 1-2 hours. Timing of thunderstorms may
be off by 1-2 hours. IFR possible outside of NYC terminals late
tonight into early Monday morning.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Monday afternoon...VFR. Sea breeze for KEWR/KTEB/KHPN/KISP
late in the day. Wind speed near 10 kt.
.Tuesday...Mainly VFR. W/SW winds, afternoon sea breeze. MVFR
possible afternoon into the night. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms afternoon for interior. Chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms at night.
.Wednesday...A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms during the
day and into early evening. A chance of showers late Wednesday
night. MVFR possible.
.Thursday...Chance of MVFR with a chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms. SW winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt afternoon
into early evening.
.Friday...VFR. NW flow 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt
afternoon into early evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90&&

.MARINE...
Steady winds ahead of a cold front will allow winds
to gust up to 30kt on the ocean and eastern sound and bays
through this evening. SCA conditions persist on the ocean
tonight and into early monday as seas gradually begin to come
down. Waves fall below SCA threshold by late morning or early
afternoon on Monday. Winds and waves are expected to remain
below SCA criteria Monday afternoon through mid-week.

A strengthening southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold
front will bring SCA conditions to the ocean waters late
Thursday into Thursday night. Seas will gradually subside on
Friday in a post-frontal NW flow. Elsewhere, conditions are
forecast to remain below SCA criteria.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Although storm motion with any thunderstorms this afternoon and
tonight won't be too slow, there is a threat of training cells along
with high moisture content. There is therefore a threat of minor
urban and poor drainage flooding, and even a low threat of flash
flooding.

It is too early to know if thunderstorms mid to late week could
pose any hydrologic impacts.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high rip current risk continues through this evening due to a
strong onshore flow and a building southerly swell. This will be
followed by a moderate rip current risk on Monday as winds weaken
with a lingering southerly swell.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
     332-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DW/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DW/MW
HYDROLOGY...DW/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
336 PM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021

NYZ075-080-081-178-179-261945-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
336 PM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>074-078-079-176-177-261945-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-
336 PM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-261945-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
336 PM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
543 PM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021

NYZ067-068-252230-
Putnam-Orange-
543 PM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021

...A CLUISTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN
ORANGE AND WESTERN PUTNAM COUNTIES...

At 542 PM EDT, an area of thunderstorms located near Montgomery, or
near Walden, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Newburgh, Walden, West Point, Cold Spring, New Windsor, Gardnertown,
Montgomery, Woodbury, Orange Lake, Washingtonville, Firthcliffe,
Highland Falls, Vails Gate, Balmville and Cornwall On Hudson.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4156 7398 4153 7400 4151 7400 4150 7399
      4146 7400 4144 7398 4149 7393 4150 7381
      4133 7390 4132 7398 4131 7400 4144 7437
      4161 7430
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 288DEG 17KT 4151 7424

DW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
607 PM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021

NYZ067-252245-
Orange-
607 PM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ORANGE COUNTY...

At 607 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Highview to near Bloomingburg to
Howells to Otisville. Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Newburgh, Middletown, Monroe, Walden, West Point, Warwick, Goshen,
Howells, New Windsor, Gardnertown, Chester, Montgomery, Greenwood
Lake, Florida and Harriman.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4163 7425 4160 7425 4159 7414 4153 7399
      4146 7400 4144 7398 4140 7396 4140 7395
      4135 7396 4132 7399 4114 7423 4116 7427
      4142 7458 4150 7456 4150 7448 4157 7441
      4160 7433 4163 7427
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 303DEG 22KT 4158 7438 4152 7442 4147 7448 4145
7453

DW