Special Weather Statement, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
436 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will pass through by early this evening. High
pressure will follow later tonight into Thursday, then weaken
Thursday night. A weak disturbance will pass through on Friday,
with high pressure returning for Saturday. A frontal system
will approach Saturday night into Sunday, and may linger into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Severe tstm watch continues for srn CT and Long Island, and has
been cancelled elsewhere. Best moisture/lift for tstms is mostly
to the south attm. HRRR still indicates potential for tstms
development across coastal CT and Long Island as a cold front
moving into the area interacts with any leftover boundaries
from earlier storms and possibly a sea breeze toward evening,
but even there potential does not look as great as earlier.

As N-NW flw ensues this evening, any remaining activity should
end after sunset, with dewpoints getting down in the more
comfortable 50s, and low temps 55-60 inland and lower/mid 60s
NYC metro/coast. Haze should also diminish with the change of
air mass.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Weak high pressure will settle in on Thursday providing
seasonably warm and dry conditions. Sun will be filtered
through a returning upper level smoke layer across NE NJ and NYC
metro in the morning, and throughout in the afternoon, and fcst
soundings imply some increase in clouds during the afternoon.
Can't totally rule out a passing shower Thu evening right along
the shoreline of SE CT and eastern Long Island Thu evening, for
now kept any potential offshore. Low temps Thu night should be
similar to those fcst for tonight, 55-60 inland and lower/mid
60s NYC metro/coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
There aren't many significant changes to the long term forecast.
The long term is predominantly influenced by an upper level
trough allowing generally weak disturbances to move through the
area followed by weak high pressure systems.

Surface high pressure generally in the area on Friday will give
way to a weak disturbance that moves through during the
afternoon. Most of the area should primarily be dry with perhaps
an isolated shower or thunderstorm for areas to the north. The
high builds in more strongly over the area by Saturday with
clear skies and high temperatures about average for this time of
the year, generally in the middle 80s.

The next frontal system approaches the area from the west
Saturday night as the high pressure shifts offshore and allows
southerly flow to advect moisture into the area. Though timing
is a bit uncertain, the chance for showers can begin as early as
late Saturday evening into early Sunday. Daytime heating on
Sunday should allow for enough instability to produce some
thunderstorms in addition to the showers. As the frontal system
approaches, it slows and may eventually stall somewhere in the
area. This will mean the chance for showers and thunderstorms
persisting through the day on Monday, though capped the
probability at a low chance to account for the uncertainty. Kept
Tuesday and Wednesday dry as the front looks to push a little
more south allowing for a weak high pressure system to build in
from the northwest, however, there is considerable uncertainty
at this time range.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will move through into early evening. High pressure
builds in from the west tonight into Thursday.

TSRA possible mainly for KEWR/KJFK/KISP. Can't rule out a TSTM at
other terminals, but confidence not high enough to include in TAFs.

Winds mostly NNE-NNW rest of aftn. Strong gusts in TSTMs possible.
Outside of TSTMs, winds around 10 kt for the rest of the day
with some gusts up to around 20 kt possible. Winds bcmg lighter
tonight NNW-NW, increasing back to around 10 kt Thursday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

TSTMs may remain south of KJFK/KEWR, but still be within 10 miles.
Winds potentially shift southerly for an hour at KJFK starting near
2030z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Thursday...VFR. NW winds.
.Friday...Mainly VFR, with a slight chance of an afternoon and
evening shower and thunderstorm.
.Saturday...VFR.
.Saturday Night into Sunday...Chance of showers and
thunderstorms with frontal system.
.Monday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
With lack of any significant synoptic flow, winds and seas look
to remain below SCA through at least the beginning of the
weekend. An approaching cold front will likely cause a rise to
both winds and seas to near SCA, mainly for the ocean waters, on
Sunday. While winds will diminish by Monday, seas may take a
bit longer to subside so SCA conditions may continue into
Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Downpours from showers and thunderstorms into early this
evening, mainly across Long Island and coastal CT,may lead to
localized nuisance flooding.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tide levels have risen with the approach of a full
moon later in the week. Isolated minor coastal flooding is
expected along the south shore back bays of Queens/Nassau toward
evening, and appears likely with the early evening high tides
cycles Thu-Sat as well. Could also see water levels just barely
touching minor thresholds along parts of the SW CT coast later
this week.

A low rip current risk continues at the ocean beaches for
Wednesday and Thursday. This may need to be re-evaluated due to
greater than usual to tidal fluctuations with the full moon.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BG
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BG/MW
HYDROLOGY...BG/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG/MW

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
316 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0156 PM     HAIL             HAMDEN                  41.37N 72.90W
07/21/2021  M1.00 INCH       NEW HAVEN          CT   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
428 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

NYZ176>179-212115-
Northern Queens-Southern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau-
428 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT QUEENS AND NASSAU COUNTIES...

At 428 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Jamaica, moving
southeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jamaica, Levittown, Freeport, Valley Stream, Long Beach, Garden City,
Massapequa, Lynbrook, Mineola, Woodmere, Westbury, Great Neck,
Kennedy Airport, Jones Beach and Forest Hills.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4057 7374 4065 7386 4067 7386 4069 7387
      4068 7390 4071 7392 4080 7377 4083 7374
      4071 7343 4065 7342 4063 7342 4062 7343
      4062 7342 4061 7342 4061 7341 4060 7341
      4057 7357
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 297DEG 22KT 4071 7377

DS

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