Special Weather Statement, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
206 PM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move across the area this afternoon
into early this evening. A frontal wave along the front will
rapidly deepen, while passing to the west today, heading up into
the Canadian Maritimes tonight into Thursday. At the same time,
high pressure will build to the south and west of the area
Thursday into Friday, passing offshore on Saturday. Low pressure
approaches from the southwest Saturday night, passing just to
the south on Sunday. High pressure then builds back into the
area for the start of the new work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for the entire region
until 6PM this evening. Main threat is for damaging winds. The
strong cold front will make for fast moving showers and
thunderstorms, so any heavy rain will be very brief in duration.
Therefore, no flooding is expected.

This is a low CAPE high shear environment. The low attached to
the cold front will be deepening through the afternoon as it
moves through New England. Bulk shear 0-6 km around 50 kt and
surface CAPE of about 300-600 J/kg will be enough to give these
thunderstorms the threat to produce damaging winds. The main
mode for cells will be a squall line. Winds ahead of the line
with the strengthening southerly synoptic flow ahead of the cold
front are gusting up to 25 to 30 mph, especially along the
coast.

Mesoscale models generally indicate that by around 4PM the main
squall line of showers and thunderstorms will be across
Southwest Connecticut and Western Long Island and just exiting
the forecast region east of New London Connecticut and Eastern
Long Island around 6PM.

Temperatures ahead of the line of thunderstorms will generally
stay in the 60 to 70 degree range. The clouds and showers and
thunderstorms will limit the temperatures.

Following the cold front, strong cold advection with a sharp
shift of winds to the NW and deep cyclonic flow will allow for
good mixing and gusty west winds (up to 35 mph).

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Any lingering showers will pass to the east early this evening.
Clearing skies and gusty west winds will prevail. This combined
with an unseasonably cold night across the region will give a
winter-like feel. Overnight lows across the interior will drop
to around 30, with the lower to mid 30s elsewhere. The freeze
watch for Western Passaic, Orange, Putnam, Fairfield, and
northern Middlesex have been upgraded to a freeze warning.
Ironically, today is considered the start date for the growing
season across this area.

Gusty winds continue on Thursday as the low pressure
strengthens while moving over the Canadian Maritimes. High
pressure also builds to our south and west, creating a strong
pressure gradient over the region. W-NW wind gusts 25 to 35 mph
are likely, and could reach 40 mph near the coast. Highs on
Thursday will be well below normal in the upper 40s inland to
the lower 50s near the coast. Winds weaken some Thursday night,
but should still remain gusty enough to preclude frost again.
Lows will be in the middle to upper 30s for most locations.

High pressure will build to the south and west through Friday
and then off the Mid Atlantic coast Saturday. Temperatures will
moderate back to near normal levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure to the south moves farther offshore on Saturday as an
amplifying trough and associated surface low over the Mississippi
Valley begin to approach the region. While clouds will increase, the
daylight hours are expected to remain dry.

Precipitation rapidly overspreads the area Saturday night as the low
approaches and then passes over or just south of the region during
the day on Sunday. Rain then gradually tapers off from southwest to
northeast Sunday afternoon. As the low moves off to the northeast,
gusty northwest flow is expected Sunday night into Monday as high
pressure begins to build in from the west. Dry conditions are
expected Monday and Tuesday as the high becomes more
established.

After above normal temperatures on Saturday, highs on Sunday and
Monday are expected to remain near to slightly below normal as the
low impacts the area. Above normal temperatures will then return on
Tuesday with plenty of sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A strong cold front will move across the region this afternoon.
High pressure then builds toward the area tonight into
Thursday.

A line of scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed
and are expected to cross the area between 18Z-22Z, with MVFR
ceilings and IFR visibilities possible in any thunderstorms.
Conditions then quickly improve back to VFR this evening.

South to southwest winds will gust to 20 to 25 kt as the front
crosses the area this afternoon, winds will quickly shift to the
NW and increase in speed, with gusts 30-35 kt possible through
tonight behind the front. Gusts to over 40 kt are possible in
any thunderstorms this afternoon. Winds will remain gusty
through Thursday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments are possible this afternoon for timing of
showers/thunderstorms.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY....
.Thursday...VFR. WNW gusts 25-35kt.
.Friday...VFR. WNW gusts 20-25kt.
.Saturday...VFR.
.Saturday night-Sunday...MVFR/IFR in rain.
.Monday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
S flow increases ahead of a strong cold front this afternoon,
with SCA conditions on the ocean waters and on all waters. The
cold front moves across much of the waters by evening, clearing
the easternmost waters of the forecast region early this
evening. Gale Warning remains in effect on the ocean for
frequent gusts over 34 knots tonight into Thursday. The SCA on
the non ocean waters continues Wednesday night and will continue
into Thursday.

Lingering SCA conditions likely on Friday in a gradually
diminishing west flow, especially on the ocean.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on Saturday before both winds and
seas increase Saturday night into Sunday as low pressure crosses the
waters. Gusts to 25 kt are possible on all waters, especially Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night as flow turns to the northwest behind
the departing low. Seas on the ocean will increase to 5 ft Sunday
morning, then to 6-8 ft late Sunday into Sunday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Both Thursday and Friday may pose an elevated risk of wildfire
spread due to low RH and gusty west winds. Rainfall amounts
today will be on the order of 0.25 to 0.50 inches. This will
likely factor into how quickly fine fuels can dry out. So, the
greater risk may come on Friday. Land managers will be contacted
today to discuss forecast fuel moisture during this time

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall through early this evening will have amounts ranging
from around a quarter to half an inch. No hydrologic impacts
are expected through the week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for CTZ005-006.
NY...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ067-068.
NJ...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ331-332-
     335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...FEB
AVIATION...Fig
MARINE...FEB/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...FEB/DW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
1235 PM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021

CTZ007>012-NJZ004-006-103>108-NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179-221645-
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-
Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
1235 PM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation according to Standard Operating Procedures is
requested and appreciated. Please safely report significant weather
conditions while following local, state, and CDC guidelines.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ005-006-NJZ002-NYZ067-068-221645-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Western Passaic-Orange-Putnam-
1235 PM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
   Freeze Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Freeze Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation according to Standard Operating Procedures is
requested and appreciated. Please safely report significant weather
conditions while following local, state, and CDC guidelines.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-221645-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
1235 PM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation according to Standard Operating Procedures is
requested and appreciated. Please safely report significant weather
conditions while following local, state, and CDC guidelines.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ350-353-355-221645-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
1235 PM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation according to Standard Operating Procedures is
requested and appreciated. Please safely report significant weather
conditions while following local, state, and CDC guidelines.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
250 PM EDT WED APR 21 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     HAIL             2 SE MIDTOWN MANHATTAN  40.75N 73.94W
04/21/2021  M0.75 INCH       QUEENS             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DSR

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