Heat Advisory 3, NWS New York, NY

802 
WWUS71 KOKX 051934
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
334 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

CTZ009-061000-
/O.EXB.KOKX.HT.Y.0003.210706T1500Z-210708T0000Z/
Southern Fairfield-
334 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values 95-98 expected.

* WHERE...Southern Fairfield County.

* WHEN...From 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat 
  illnesses to occur.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The highest temperatures and heat indices 
  are expected between 1 PM and 5 PM each afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory is issued when the combination of heat and
humidity is expected to make it feel like it is 95 to 99 degrees
for two or more consecutive days, or 100 to 104 degrees for any
length of time.

Seniors and those with chronic health problems or mental health
conditions are at an increased risk. Homes without air
conditioning can be much hotter than outdoor temperatures.

Use air conditioning to stay cool at home or go to a place that
has air conditioning. Check on vulnerable friends, family members
and neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and
Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency! In cases of heat stroke call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ004-006-103>108-NYZ069>071-177-179-061000-
/O.EXT.KOKX.HT.Y.0003.210706T1500Z-210708T0000Z/
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-Northern Nassau-
Southern Nassau-
334 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 100 expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New 
  York.

* WHEN...From 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat 
  illnesses to occur.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The highest temperatures and heat indices
  are expected between 1 PM and 5 PM each afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory is issued when the combination of heat and
humidity is expected to make it feel like it is 95 to 99 degrees
for two or more consecutive days, or 100 to 104 degrees for any
length of time.

Seniors and those with chronic health problems or mental health
conditions are at an increased risk. Homes without air
conditioning can be much hotter than outdoor temperatures.

Use air conditioning to stay cool at home or go to a place that
has air conditioning. Check on vulnerable friends, family members
and neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and
Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency! In cases of heat stroke call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

NYZ072>075-176-178-061000-
/O.EXT.KOKX.HT.Y.0003.210706T1500Z-210708T0000Z/
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern Queens-
334 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 100 expected.

* WHERE...New York (Manhattan), Richmond (Staten Island), Bronx,
  Kings (Brooklyn), and Queens Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat 
  illnesses to occur.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The highest temperatures and heat indices
  are expected between 1 PM and 5 PM each afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory is issued when the combination of heat and
humidity is expected to make it feel like it is 95 to 99 degrees
for two or more consecutive days, or 100 to 104 degrees for any
length of time.

New York City residents should call 3-1-1 to identify cooling
center locations and obtain "Beat the Heat" safety tips.

Seniors and those with chronic health problems or mental health
conditions are at an increased risk. Homes without air
conditioning can be much hotter than outdoor temperatures.

Use air conditioning to stay cool at home or go to a place that
has air conditioning. Check on vulnerable friends, family members
and neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and
Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency! In cases of heat stroke call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

663 
WWUS71 KOKX 060806
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
406 AM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

CTZ005>007-010-NJZ002-NYZ067-068-078-080-062030-
/O.EXA.KOKX.HT.Y.0003.210706T1500Z-210708T0000Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Southern New Haven-Western Passaic-Orange-Putnam-
Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-
406 AM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 100 expected.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Western Passaic County. In Connecticut, 
  Northern Fairfield, Northern New Haven, Northern Middlesex and 
  Southern New Haven Counties. In New York, Orange, Putnam, 
  Northwest Suffolk and Southwest Suffolk Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat 
  illnesses to occur.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The highest temperatures and heat indices
  are expected between 1 PM and 5 PM each afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory is issued when the combination of heat and
humidity is expected to make it feel like it is 95 to 99 degrees
for two or more consecutive days, or 100 to 104 degrees for any
length of time.

Seniors and those with chronic health problems or mental health
conditions are at an increased risk. Homes without air
conditioning can be much hotter than outdoor temperatures.

Use air conditioning to stay cool at home or go to a place that
has air conditioning. Check on vulnerable friends, family members
and neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and
Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency! In cases of heat stroke call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

CTZ009-NJZ004-006-103>108-NYZ069>071-177-179-062030-
/O.CON.KOKX.HT.Y.0003.210706T1500Z-210708T0000Z/
Southern Fairfield-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-
Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-
Eastern Union-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau-
406 AM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to lower 100s.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New 
  York.

* WHEN...From 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat 
  illnesses to occur.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The highest temperatures and heat indices
  are expected between 1 PM and 5 PM each afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory is issued when the combination of heat and
humidity is expected to make it feel like it is 95 to 99 degrees
for two or more consecutive days, or 100 to 104 degrees for any
length of time.

Seniors and those with chronic health problems or mental health
conditions are at an increased risk. Homes without air
conditioning can be much hotter than outdoor temperatures.

Use air conditioning to stay cool at home or go to a place that
has air conditioning. Check on vulnerable friends, family members
and neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and
Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency! In cases of heat stroke call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

NYZ072>075-176-178-062030-
/O.CON.KOKX.HT.Y.0003.210706T1500Z-210708T0000Z/
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern Queens-
406 AM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to lower 100s.

* WHERE...New York (Manhattan), Richmond (Staten Island), Bronx, 
  Kings (Brooklyn), and Queens Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat 
  illnesses to occur.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The highest temperatures and heat indices
  are expected between 1 PM and 5 PM each afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory is issued when the combination of heat and
humidity is expected to make it feel like it is 95 to 99 degrees
for two or more consecutive days, or 100 to 104 degrees for any
length of time.

New York City residents should call 3-1-1 to identify cooling
center locations and obtain "Beat the Heat" safety tips.

Seniors and those with chronic health problems or mental health
conditions are at an increased risk. Homes without air
conditioning can be much hotter than outdoor temperatures.

Use air conditioning to stay cool at home or go to a place that
has air conditioning. Check on vulnerable friends, family members
and neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and
Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency! In cases of heat stroke call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

188 
WWUS71 KOKX 061925
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
325 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

CTZ005>007-009-010-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>071-078-080-177-
179-071100-
/O.CON.KOKX.HT.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-210708T0000Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Northern Nassau-
Southern Nassau-
325 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 100.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut 
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat 
  illnesses to occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory is issued when the combination of heat and
humidity is expected to make it feel like it is 95 to 99 degrees
for two or more consecutive days, or 100 to 104 degrees for any
length of time.

Seniors and those with chronic health problems or mental health
conditions are at an increased risk. Homes without air
conditioning can be much hotter than outdoor temperatures.

Use air conditioning to stay cool at home or go to a place that
has air conditioning. Check on vulnerable friends, family members
and neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and
Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency! In cases of heat stroke call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

NYZ072>075-176-178-071100-
/O.CON.KOKX.HT.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-210708T0000Z/
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern Queens-
325 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 100.

* WHERE...New York (Manhattan), Bronx, Southern Queens, Richmond 
  (Staten Island), Kings (Brooklyn) and Northern Queens Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat 
  illnesses to occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory is issued when the combination of heat and
humidity is expected to make it feel like it is 95 to 99 degrees
for two or more consecutive days, or 100 to 104 degrees for any
length of time.

Seniors and those with chronic health problems or mental health
conditions are at an increased risk. Homes without air
conditioning can be much hotter than outdoor temperatures.

Use air conditioning to stay cool at home or go to a place that
has air conditioning. Check on vulnerable friends, family members
and neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and
Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency! In cases of heat stroke call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

391 
WWUS71 KOKX 070829
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
429 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

CTZ005>007-009-010-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>071-078-080-177-
179-072000-
/O.CON.KOKX.HT.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-210708T0000Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Northern Nassau-
Southern Nassau-
429 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 101.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut 
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat 
  illnesses to occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory is issued when the combination of heat and
humidity is expected to make it feel like it is 95 to 99 degrees
for two or more consecutive days, or 100 to 104 degrees for any
length of time.

Seniors and those with chronic health problems or mental health
conditions are at an increased risk. Homes without air
conditioning can be much hotter than outdoor temperatures.

Use air conditioning to stay cool at home or go to a place that
has air conditioning. Check on vulnerable friends, family members
and neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and
Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency! In cases of heat stroke call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

NYZ072>075-176-178-072000-
/O.CON.KOKX.HT.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-210708T0000Z/
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern Queens-
429 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 102.

* WHERE...New York (Manhattan), Bronx, Southern Queens, Richmond 
  (Staten Island), Kings (Brooklyn) and Northern Queens Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat 
  illnesses to occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory is issued when the combination of heat and
humidity is expected to make it feel like it is 95 to 99 degrees
for two or more consecutive days, or 100 to 104 degrees for any
length of time.

Seniors and those with chronic health problems or mental health
conditions are at an increased risk. Homes without air
conditioning can be much hotter than outdoor temperatures.

Use air conditioning to stay cool at home or go to a place that
has air conditioning. Check on vulnerable friends, family members
and neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and
Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency! In cases of heat stroke call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

269 
WWUS71 KOKX 071951
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
351 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

CTZ005>007-009-010-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>071-078-080-177-
179-080000-
/O.CON.KOKX.HT.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-210708T0000Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Northern Nassau-
Southern Nassau-
351 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 101.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut 
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat 
  illnesses to occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory is issued when the combination of heat and
humidity is expected to make it feel like it is 95 to 99 degrees
for two or more consecutive days, or 100 to 104 degrees for any
length of time.

Seniors and those with chronic health problems or mental health
conditions are at an increased risk. Homes without air
conditioning can be much hotter than outdoor temperatures.

Use air conditioning to stay cool at home or go to a place that
has air conditioning. Check on vulnerable friends, family members
and neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and
Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency! In cases of heat stroke call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

NYZ072>075-176-178-080000-
/O.CON.KOKX.HT.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-210708T0000Z/
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern Queens-
351 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 102.

* WHERE...New York (Manhattan), Bronx, Southern Queens, Richmond 
  (Staten Island), Kings (Brooklyn) and Northern Queens Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat 
  illnesses to occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory is issued when the combination of heat and
humidity is expected to make it feel like it is 95 to 99 degrees
for two or more consecutive days, or 100 to 104 degrees for any
length of time.

Seniors and those with chronic health problems or mental health
conditions are at an increased risk. Homes without air
conditioning can be much hotter than outdoor temperatures.

Use air conditioning to stay cool at home or go to a place that
has air conditioning. Check on vulnerable friends, family members
and neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and
Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency! In cases of heat stroke call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
134 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure slides east overnight before settling over
the Western Atlantic Monday into Tuesday. The next frontal
system approaches late Tuesday into Wednesday, stalling near the
region late in the week, possibly into next weekend. The
remnants of Elsa may track well to the south and east of Long
Island Thursday night into Friday. Please refer to the latest
forecast and track information on Elsa from the National
Hurricane Center.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
Patchy dense fog has developed in parts of Eastern Long Island
and Southeast CT. More patchy fog is expected to develop in
parts of the region from New Haven through New London and
Suffolk County NY. SPS issued for this and goes until 7am.

Otherwise, made some slight adjustments to hourly temperatures
and dewpoints to better match observed trends. Minimum
temperatures were adjusted downward slightly for a few
locations. Added in patchy fog for almost the entire region
except for NYC.

High pressure slides offshore overnight, with a weak warm front
sitting just to the SW of the region. Weak onshore flow will
bring potential for areas of low stratus development later
tonight, particularly for areas north and west of New York City.

Under mainly partly skies, overnight lows will range from the
upper 50s well north to the mid 60s in and around New York City.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
More seasonable conditions will return on Monday as heights
begin to rise aloft. After morning clouds, more sunshine is
expected by afternoon as the ridge begins to build across the
region. Highs will still remain a few degrees below normal,
ranging from the lower 70s across far eastern Connecticut and
Long Island to the lower 80s across New York City and northeast
New Jersey. Can't rule out an afternoon or evening shower as a
warm front lifts across the area, but overall moisture and
instability continue to look limited. With the warm front north
of the area, overnight lows will only fall to around 70 for the
city and coast, and into the mid 60s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Increasing heat and humidity for Tuesday and Wednesday will be
the main story to start the long term. Tuesday looks to be the
warmest day as 500 mb heights range between 585dm and 588dm. 850
mb temperatures continue to range between 18 and 20C. This
should yield high temperatures in the lower to potentially
middle 90s in the NYC metro, NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley,
interior SW CT, and interior NW Long Island. Afternoon sea
breezes should cap high temperatures in the middle and upper 60s
across southeast Connecticut and central and eastern Long
Island. Maximum heat indices look to range from the middle and
upper 90s when temperatures combine with dew points in the upper
60s to around 70. A few locations in urban NE NJ may approach
100-102 heat index in the afternoon.

A subtle middle level shortwave may pass across New England
Tuesday evening. A weak surface trough should be present as
well. Convection chances remain low, but a few showers and
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out inland late Tuesday with one
or two possible near the coast in the evening. The passage of
this shortwave may lower heights closer to 585 dm on Wednesday.
As a result, 850 mb temperatures on Wednesday could be 1-2
degrees cooler. This may lower air temperatures by a degree or
so compared to Tuesday with highs in the lower 90s away from the
immediate coast. Dew points should be similar overall on
Wednesday, but could mix out a bit into the middle 60s in the
warmer urban NE NJ and NYC metro corridor where the sea breeze
holds off till late in the day. If dew points do mix out a bit,
then max heat indices would end up closer to actual air
temperatures. Current forecast max heat indices in the NYC metro
are around 93-96 degrees and 94-98 in urban NE NJ. A heat
advisory may be needed here, but confidence is not high enough
at this point to issue.

Model trends appear to hold off much of the shower and
thunderstorm activity Wednesday until late in the day, which
should have limited impact on temperatures. A more well defined
middle and upper shortwave sets up across the Great Lakes
Wednesday and then slides east towards the area on Thursday. A
pre-frontal trough settles over the area Wednesday evening with
possible showers and storms. This feature will remain over the
area into Thursday as the actual cold front nears the region.
With falling heights aloft and more organized surface
convergence, coverage of showers and thunderstorms should be
greater than on Wednesday. High temperatures look to be in the
lower to middle 80s.

The official NHC forecast track takes Elsa, or the remnants of
Elsa, well south and east of the area Thursday night into
Friday. There is always uncertainty in the forecast this far out
in time, but the general consensus of the model guidance shows
the system passing well south and east of the area. Questions
remain on how much, if any, moisture interacts with the slow
moving frontal boundary. Please refer to the latest forecast and
track information on Elsa from the National Hurricane Center.

A consensus of the models Friday into next weekend show broad
troughing weakening and lifting northward. Another shortwave may
approach late in the weekend. The frontal boundary may lift
back north as heights aloft rise on the weekend. Temperatures in
the lower to middle 80s trend warmer by next weekend with
readings back into the middle and upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weak high pressure over the area gradually slides offshore
overnight, with a weak warm front developing just to the SW of
NYC/NJ terminals. This front likely lifts north of the southern
terminals in the afternoon, and the north of the northern
terminals Monday night.

Potential for MVFR to IFR ceilings to develop for morning push
with isolated patchy fog, particularly for northern terminals.
Conditions should improve to VFR for southern terminals by mid
morning, but could linger into afternoon for northern terminals.

Light and variable winds overnight will return to the SE Monday
morning at less than 10kt. Hybrid S/SE seabreeze could have
winds increase to 10 to 15 kt for S coastal terminals late
aft/early eve push.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Potential for MVFR cigs for morning push. Hybrid S/SE seabreeze
could have winds increase to 10 to 15 kt for late aft/early eve
push for KLGA and KJFK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Monday Night...Mainly VFR. Isolated shower possible Monday
night, particularly NW terminals.
.Tuesday...VFR. Chance showers and thunderstorms, primarily
north of the NYC terminals afternoon into early evening.
.Wednesday-Friday...MVFR or lower possible in showers and
thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters through Monday
night with high pressure in control over the western Atlantic.
Seas on the ocean will generally be 3-4 feet, mainly in S
swell. Winds will increase out of the south late Monday into
Monday night with gusts to 15-20 kt.

Potential exists for SCA conditions on the ocean Tuesday into
Tuesday night with increasing S-SW flow. The flow may weaken
some on Wednesday as a frontal boundary nears the waters,
keeping conditions below SCA. Ocean seas may then build to 5-6
ft as S-SE swells build.

Marginal SCA wind gusts are possible Tuesday afternoon. A
strong inversion above the surface may prevent winds from
gusting much higher than 25 kt in the late afternoon and
evening. Building SE swells should allow seas to become 5-6 ft
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. These seas may subside a
bit on Wednesday as winds look to be a bit weaker. SE swells
from Elsa may occur Thursday into Friday with potential for
ocean seas to reach 5 ft. Please refer to the latest forecast
and track information on Elsa from the National Hurricane
Center.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through Tuesday. Specific
impacts, if any, are unknown at this time from potential showers
and thunderstorms Wednesday through the end of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip currents on Monday.

There is a high risk of rip currents at the ocean beaches on
Tuesday due to 4-5 ft S wind waves and a mixture of long period
SE swells.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FEB/DS
NEAR TERM...FEB/JM/NV
SHORT TERM...FEB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DJ/NV
MARINE...FEB/DS
HYDROLOGY...FEB/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
342 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021

NYZ075-080-081-178-179-051945-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
342 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at ocean beaches on Monday.
There is a high risk of rip currents at ocean beaches on Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>074-078-079-176-177-051945-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-
342 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-051945-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
342 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
1252 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

CTZ006>008-010>012-NYZ078>081-051100-
Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-
Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-
Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-
Southeast Suffolk-
1252 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

...PATCHY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

Patchy dense fog in parts of the region overnight into the early
morning will reduce visibilities down to a quarter mile or less.

If driving and encountering this fog, slow down, allow extra space
between vehicles and use low beam headlights.

JM