Gale Watch 14, NWS New York, NY

352 
WHUS71 KOKX 250504
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
104 AM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

ANZ355-251815-
/O.EXT.KOKX.SC.Y.0089.000000T0000Z-211026T1200Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.A.0014.211026T1200Z-211027T1000Z/
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
104 AM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, south winds 10 to 20 kt 
  with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 3 to 6 feet. For the Gale 
  Watch, north winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 
  6 to 9 feet possible.

* WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 8 AM EDT Tuesday. 
  For the Gale Watch, from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday 
  night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and seas.

&&

$$

ANZ350-353-251815-
/O.EXT.KOKX.SC.Y.0089.211025T0600Z-211026T1200Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.A.0014.211026T1200Z-211027T1000Z/
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
104 AM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, south winds 10 to 20 kt 
  with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 4 to 7 feet expected. For the 
  Gale Watch, northeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt 
  and seas 6 to 11 feet possible.

* WHERE...Fire Island Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 8 AM EDT Tuesday. 
  For the Gale Watch, from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday 
  night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and seas.

&&

$$

ANZ345-251815-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0089.211025T0600Z-211025T1800Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.A.0014.211026T1200Z-211027T1000Z/
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
104 AM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, south winds 10 to 15 kt 
  and waves 1 to 2 feet expected. For the Gale Watch, northeast 
  winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and waves 1 to 2 feet 
  possible.

* WHERE...The Long Island south shore bays.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 2 PM EDT this 
  afternoon. For the Gale Watch, from Tuesday morning through 
  late Tuesday night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and seas.

&&

$$

ANZ331-332-335-338-340-251815-
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.A.0014.211026T1200Z-211027T1000Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
104 AM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet possible.

* WHERE...Long Island Sound, New York Harbor, and Peconic and 
  Gardiners Bays.

* WHEN...From Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine

953 
WHUS71 KOKX 250758
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
358 AM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

ANZ345-252000-
/O.CAN.KOKX.SC.Y.0089.000000T0000Z-211025T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KOKX.GL.A.0014.211026T1200Z-211027T1800Z/
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
358 AM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...GALE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  waves 1 to 2 feet possible.

* WHERE...The Long Island south shore bays.

* WHEN...From Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and seas.

&&

$$

ANZ355-252000-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0089.000000T0000Z-211026T1200Z/
/O.EXT.KOKX.GL.A.0014.211026T1200Z-211027T1800Z/
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
358 AM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY...
...GALE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, south winds 10 to 20 kt 
  with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 3 to 6 feet. For the Gale 
  Watch, north winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 
  6 to 9 feet possible.

* WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 8 AM EDT Tuesday. 
  For the Gale Watch, from Tuesday morning through Wednesday 
  afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

ANZ350-353-252000-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0089.000000T0000Z-211026T1200Z/
/O.EXT.KOKX.GL.A.0014.211026T1200Z-211027T1800Z/
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
358 AM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY...
...GALE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, south winds 10 to 20 kt 
  with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 4 to 7 feet. For the Gale 
  Watch, northeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and 
  seas 7 to 12 feet possible.

* WHERE...Fire Island Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 8 AM EDT Tuesday. 
  For the Gale Watch, from Tuesday morning through Wednesday 
  afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and seas.

&&

$$

ANZ331-332-340-252000-
/O.EXT.KOKX.GL.A.0014.211026T1200Z-211027T1800Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
358 AM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...GALE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and 
  seas 3 to 6 feet possible.

* WHERE...Long Island Sound east of Port Jefferson and New 
  Haven, and Peconic and Gardiners Bays.

* WHEN...From Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and seas.

&&

$$

ANZ335-338-252000-
/O.EXT.KOKX.GL.A.0014.211026T1200Z-211027T1200Z/
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-
358 AM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...GALE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  seas 2 to 4 feet possible.

* WHERE...Long Island Sound west of Port Jefferson and New 
  Haven, and New York Harbor.

* WHEN...From Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and seas.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine

682 
WHUS71 KOKX 251959
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
359 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

ANZ355-261000-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0089.000000T0000Z-211026T1200Z/
/O.UPG.KOKX.GL.A.0014.211026T1200Z-211027T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.GL.W.0021.211026T1200Z-211027T1800Z/
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
359 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 2 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, northeast winds 20 to 30 kt with 
  gusts up to 45 kt and seas 6 to 11 feet expected. For the 
  Small Craft Advisory, southeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts 
  up to 30 kt and seas 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 8 AM Tuesday to 2 PM EDT 
  Wednesday. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 8 AM EDT 
  Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ353-261000-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0089.000000T0000Z-211026T1200Z/
/O.UPG.KOKX.GL.A.0014.211026T1200Z-211027T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.GL.W.0021.211026T1200Z-211027T1800Z/
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
359 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 2 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, northeast winds 25 to 35 kt with
  gusts up to 45 kt and seas 7 to 12 feet expected. For the Small
  Craft Advisory, southeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30
  kt and seas 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 8 AM Tuesday to 2 PM EDT 
  Wednesday. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 8 AM EDT 
  Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ331-332-340-345-261000-
/O.UPG.KOKX.GL.A.0014.211026T1200Z-211027T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.GL.W.0021.211026T1200Z-211027T1800Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
359 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 2 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and
  seas 3 to 6 feet expected on eastern Long Island Sound.

* WHERE...Long Island Sound east of Port Jefferson and New 
  Haven, Peconic and Gardiners Bays, and South Shore Bays from 
  Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay.

* WHEN...From 8 AM Tuesday to 2 PM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ335-338-261000-
/O.UPG.KOKX.GL.A.0014.211026T1200Z-211027T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.GL.W.0021.211026T1200Z-211027T1200Z/
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-
359 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt.

* WHERE...Long Island Sound west of Port Jefferson and New 
  Haven, and New York Harbor.

* WHEN...From 8 AM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ350-261000-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0089.000000T0000Z-211026T1200Z/
/O.UPG.KOKX.GL.A.0014.211026T1200Z-211027T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.SR.W.0002.211026T1200Z-211027T1800Z/
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
359 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 2 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Storm Warning, northeast winds 25 to 35 kt with 
  gusts up to 50 kt and seas 7 to 12 feet expected. For the 
  Small Craft Advisory, southeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts 
  up to 30 kt and seas 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...For the Storm Warning, from 8 AM Tuesday to 2 PM EDT 
  Wednesday. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 8 AM EDT 
  Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Gusts during the daytime hours are more
  likely to be around 40 to 45 kt, but some gusts up to 50 kt will
  be possible during the afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
442 PM EDT Sun Oct 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will pass north of the region tonight, then drop
south late Monday as low pressure begins to rapidly develop
south of Long Island. Strong low pressure affects the region
Monday night into Wednesday. Weak high pressure will briefly
return Wednesday night and Thursday before another large and
slow moving low pressure system impacts the area Thursday night
into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sfc analysis shows a developing warm front across PA. As high
pres over the cwa drifts offshore, the warm front will approach
tngt and provide a focus for rainfall. The models have been in
good agreement centering the best rain chances and highest
amounts across the nrn half of the cwa, and this consensus was
followed for the fcst.

With the warm front progged to be just north of the area on Mon,
low clouds and lgt rain or dz invof the front will be a fcst
challenge. For now, we have trended the fcst towards the NAM,
but not all the way as the NAM does tend to hold onto too much
llvl moisture at times. The srn third of the cwa is expected to
break out of the clouds by aftn which would allow temps to shoot
up into the mid 70s. Where the clouds and lgt pcpn do not clear,
temps will stay in the low 60s and even upr 50s. Most of the
area attm is expected to break out by late aftn per the model
consensus, but with a sharp boundary the consensus may not be
good enough. As previously mentioned, the fcst has been hedged
cooler with the NAM, and a temp bust on either side is possible.

Pwats will increase to around 200 percent of normal on Mon ngt.
At the same time, an h5 low over the midwest and one over
Canada are progged to merge and approach the area. This scenario
would result in the blossoming of hvy rainfall across the area.
Model time heights, particularly the NAM, show deep, intense
lift which would support hvy rainfall rates given the moist
environment. Given this scenario and the potential for
additional rainfall as the storm intensifies on Tue, a flash
flood watch has been issued.

Embedded tstms possible Mon ngt, but attm they are expected to
be elevated with the llvls stabilizing, so the SPC outlook of
mrgnl or less looks appropriate.

Winds begin to increase late Mon ngt as the low begins to deepen
south of LI. Speeds however are expected to remain blw 25-30 mph
thru Mon ngt.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The parent low moving into the area from the west redevelops into a
coastal low that rapidly deepens just to the southeast of the area
on Tuesday. Through the day, the low strengthens and then
retrogrades closer to the coast bringing with it periods of rain,
which may be moderate to potentially heavy at times. Winds from the
Northeast likely increase significantly into Tuesday afternoon with
sustained winds along Long Island and the coast from 20 to 35 mph
with gusts potentially upwards of 50mph. The strength and westward
extent of these strong winds and gusts are highly dependent on the
low positioning where a closer low will allow stronger winds to push
farther westward. As of now, the strongest winds appear to be for
the eastern portions of the area and along the coast.

The low pressure spins just south or southeast of Long Island
Tuesday night and into early Wednesday before it begins to pull away
from the area. Widespread light to moderate rain will likely
continue through much of Tuesday night with strong winds persisting
into Wednesday. As the low pulls away Wednesday, western areas look
to dry out by late morning where eastern areas will continue to have
the chance of showers through Wednesday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The omega block developing as a result of the early week system
impacting the local area and energy moving across the western CONUS
should slowly translate east during the period. The western leg of
this block should then bring the area another shot or prolonged and
possibly heavy rain late this week into the weekend. Attm most
likely time frame for heavy rain appears to be Fri night into Sat AM
via combo of upper level difluence/divergence and low level Atlantic
inflow. Medium range models are in fair enough agreement with this
idea (with the GFS a fast outlier) to go with NBM forecast with only
minor adjustments; that said would not be surprised to see the
timing of this system and its impacts trend later with subsequent
forecasts. Temps should be above normal through the period,
especially at night give cloud cover and precip.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
     Potential High Impact Coastal Storm Late Monday Night into
Tuesday...

Weak high pressure continues to retreat to the east this afternoon.
At the same time, a warm front approaches from the southwest
and lifts north of the area by daybreak, stalling just north of
the area. The front may actually begin to sag back toward the
area Monday evening.

VFR for the remainder of this afternoon into early this evening.
Ceilings will then gradually lower overnight to MVFR at the
coastal terminals and IFR for the inland terminals. Rain will be
spotty at the coast but steadier and more widespread to the
north.

Once the warm front lifts to the north, conditions are forecast
to improve to VFR. It's possible that MVFR conditions linger
into the morning, especially inland.

S-SW winds less than 10 kt, back to the SSE ahead of the warm
front this evening. Coastal terminals will see winds increase
to 10-15 kt after midnight with gusts to around 20 kt. A 35-40
kt LLJ will impact the coastal terminals as the warm front works
through the area. For the time, have left LLWS out of the
forecast as boundary layer looks sufficiently mixed.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of MVFR ceilings overnight may vary by 1-2 hours. Chance
of LLWS after midnight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Monday Afternoon...Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR inland.
.Monday Night-Tuesday...IFR or lower conditions with rain. N-NE
winds increasing on Tuesday to 15-25kt G25-35kt. Strongest
winds and gusts at the coast. There remains a good deal of
uncertainty with the low track at this time and this forecast
will likely change.
.Wednesday...MVFR or lower possible with rain possible. N wind
gusts 20-25 kt possible.
.Thursday...Mainly VFR.
.Friday...Chance of MVFR or lower in rain. E winds 10-15 kt
G20-25kt, highest at the coast.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
South winds increase late tngt as a warm front lifts north of
the waters. A sca remains in effect for the ocean and the South
Shore Bays. Elsewhere, winds are expected to stay blw criteria.
Winds drop blw sca lvls on Mon, but seas remain abv 5 ft thru
Mon ngt on the ocean. Winds will increase on all waters Mon ngt
and a sca will likely be needed.

Low pressure approaches Monday night and strengthens a coastal low
near or over the waters into Tuesday. Gale conditions likely on all
waters Tuesday through Wednesday with gusts upwards of 35-45kt.

Gales out east should come to an end Wed evening, with SCA conds on
most remaining waters. Thereafter expect a prolonged period of SCA
conds on the ocean waters from Thu through Fri as seas subside but
remain above 5 ft for much of daytime Thu, then start to build Thu
night ahead of the next low pressure system as onshore flow
increases. SCA conds may also be possible on the south shore bays
and lower NY Harbor during the peak of onshore flow late day Fri
into Fri evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rainfall Mon ngt thru Tue is expected to bring 2 to 4
inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts possible. Exact
totals will depend on where the heaviest rain develops Mon ngt,
and the position and intensity of offshore low pres on Tue.
Lesser amounts are possible if the storm tracks further east
than currently forecast.

RFC QPF was used for the grids.

Rainfall of at least 1-2 inches and possibly as high as 2-4
inches possible with the low pressure system late this week into
this weekend. Time frame for heaviest rain attm looks to be Fri
night into Sat morning. Impacts will depend greatly on
antecedent conditions after the early week system. Would expect
at least minor impacts attm given the magnitude of rainfall from
this sys alone.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Potential Nor-Easter will bring heavy rains and strong N/NE
winds to the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. Astronomical
tides are low at this time with most locations needing to 2 to
3 ft of surge (plus anomaly) to reach minor coastal flood
benchmarks. Much of the operational guidance falls just shy of
these levels. However, the upper end of the Steven's Ensemble
does get solidly into minor across LI sound, Lower NY Harbor,
and the south shore back bays of western LI. Hudson Bay and
Lindenhurst even touch moderate with the 95th percentile.
Current thinking is that coastal flooding will be minor based on
the wind trajectory with the potential for localized moderate.

Furthermore, the north shore of LI and the north fork will also
be suspect to wave action and beach erosion which could
exacerbate any coastal flood issues. Large waves on the
oceanfront could reach 6 to 10 ft, resulting in minor dune
erosion.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flash Flood Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday
     afternoon for CTZ005>012.
NY...Flash Flood Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday
     afternoon for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Flash Flood Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday
     afternoon for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Monday for ANZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ350-353.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMC/Goodman/MW
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...Goodman
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/Goodman/MW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/Goodman/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
326 PM EDT Sun Oct 24 2021

CTZ005>008-NJZ002-004-103>108-NYZ067>070-251930-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-
Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-
Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
326 PM EDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation according to Standard Operating Procedures is
requested and appreciated.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-251930-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
326 PM EDT Sun Oct 24 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Gale to storm force winds are possible Tuesday into Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ009>012-NJZ006-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-251930-
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Southern New London-Hudson-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-
Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
326 PM EDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

In addition to the rainfall threat, there is the potential for minor
coastal flooding around the times of high tide on Tuesday, as well as
strong northeasterly winds Tuesday into Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation according to Standard Operating Procedures is
requested and appreciated.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.