Freeze Watch 4, NWS New York, NY

823 
WWUS71 KOKX 222011
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
411 PM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

CTZ005-006-NJZ002-NYZ067-068-230900-
/O.UPG.KOKX.FZ.A.0004.210423T0500Z-210423T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.FZ.W.0004.210423T0500Z-210423T1300Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Western Passaic-Orange-
Putnam-
411 PM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 expected.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Western Passaic County. In Connecticut, 
  Northern Fairfield and Northern New Haven Counties. In New 
  York, Orange and Putnam Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other
  sensitive vegetation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. 

&&

$$

CTZ007-008-NJZ004-103-NYZ069-070-230900-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FZ.W.0004.210423T0500Z-210423T1300Z/
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Eastern Passaic-
Western Bergen-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
411 PM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing temperatures as low as 32 expected.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Eastern Passaic and Western Bergen 
  Counties. In Connecticut, Northern Middlesex and Northern New 
  London Counties. In New York, Rockland and Northern 
  Westchester Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other
  sensitive vegetation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
718 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Deepening low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will slowly
lift north and east today, becoming nearly stationary tonight,
then slowly weakening and resuming its trek northward on Friday.
At the same time, high pressure builds to the south and west,
passing offshore on Saturday. Low pressure approaches from the
southwest late Saturday and passes to the south and east on
Sunday. High pressure then builds in from the west Sunday night
into Monday before settling over the area on Tuesday. The high
shifts offshore on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A few flurries or very light snow showers have been able to
reach the ground early this morning across portions of the New
York City metro area and interior southern Connecticut. This
activity should quickly come to an end this morning.

Gusts have been lost in some locations and those that are
gusting seeing about 20 to 25 mph. Winds will ramp back up in
the new few hours as heating ensues and the depth of the mixed
layer increases.

Deepening low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes and high
pressure building to the south and west will maintain a strong
pressure gradient across the region. This will result in strong
west winds with gusts up to 35 mph (a few higher gusts possible).

Deep-layered cyclone flow will allow for instability clouds to
form above 5000 ft late this morning into this afternoon. A
mostly sunny start will transition to partly to mostly cloudy.

At the same time, an unseasonably cold airmass will be in place
for late April, with highs struggling to get much above 50.
This will be about 10 degrees below normal and will feel even
colder with the gusty west winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Winds will slacken somewhat tonight with the loss of the deep
daytime mixing. Still though, gusts up to 25 mph will be
possible and even with mostly clear skies, the radiational
cooling component will be hindered. The airmass will moderate
somewhat as well. Confidence for freezing or lower temperatures
is not sufficient enough at this time to issue another freeze
watch or warning, but it's not out of the possibility. The best
chance at this time would be across the western half of Orange
County in the Lower Hudson Valley.

Friday will continue to be gusty, but less so than prior day,
and temperatures will to seasonable levels with highs generally
in the lower 60s.

As low pressure weakens Friday into Saturday, gusts will be
lost Friday night and high pressure will build in from the
southwest. Conditions will remain dry and mild on Saturday as
the high builds offshore and winds turn around to the south in
the afternoon.

Global models remain in good agreement with a progressive
southern branch low that interacts with a northern branch
shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes. There has been
no indication at this time of phasing of the two branches. Rain
from the system will overspread the area from SW to NE during
the evening and into the overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The upper trough crosses the area on Sunday, with its associated
surface low passing south of Long Island during the day. After a wet
start to the day, rain will taper off from west to east during the
afternoon as the low moves east of the area. Gusty northwest flow
then develops Sunday night into Monday as the pressure gradient
tightens between the departing low and high pressure building to the
west.

The high builds over the area on Tuesday before shifting offshore on
Wednesday. With rising heights aloft, this should lead to a gradual
warming trend. After near normal temperatures on Sunday and Monday,
temperatures return to above normal Tuesday, and by Wednesday
temperatures may be as much as 10 degrees above seasonal
normals.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure continues to exit to the northeast. High pressure
builds towards the area today.

VFR conditions through the TAF period.

WNW winds will increase this morning with gusts to 30-35 kt from
late this morning through the afternoon. Winds then decrease
this evening, with gusts falling to 25 kt or less at coastal
terminals. Gusts may come to an end entirely for a few hours
very late tonight into early Friday morning at outlying
terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY....
.Friday...VFR. WNW winds G20-25kt.
.Saturday...VFR.
.Saturday night-Sunday...MVFR/IFR in rain.
.Monday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Marginal gales will continue across all waters today and into
this evening, ending on the non-ocean waters first. There is
the possibility that the gales will need to be lowered earlier
as the gusts may become more occasional at 35 kt late in the
day. SCA conditions will remain across the waters on Friday
with only lingering 5 ft seas on the ocean Friday night as high
pressure builds in from the southwest. Sub-SCA conditions are
forecast across all waters Saturday and Saturday night.

SCA conditions will develop on Sunday as both winds and seas
increase in response to deepening low pressure passing south of Long
Island. As the low moves off to the northeast, winds will shift to
the NW with SCA gusts continuing Sunday night before gradually
diminishing during the day on Monday. By Monday night, both winds
and seas will likely fall below SCA levels on all waters as high
pressure begins to build across the waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An SPS has been coordinated with the state of CT for the
mention of elevated risk of wildfire spread should ignition
occur.

Both today and Friday will pose an elevated risk of wildfire
spread due to low RH and gusty west winds. Min RH values both
days will generally be less than 30 percent.

Rainfall amounts on the order of 0.25 to 0.50 inches from
Wednesday will likely factor into how quickly fine fuels can
dry out. This should occur quickly though due to strong west
winds and low RH values. The greater risk for potential fire
spread appears to be on Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ005>008.
NY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ067>070.
NJ...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ002-004-103.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345.
     Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FEB/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...FEB
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...FEB/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...FEB/DW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
422 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

CTZ005>008-NJZ002-004-103-NYZ067>070-230830-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-
Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
422 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Freeze Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ009>012-NJZ006-104>108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-230830-
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Southern New London-Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-
Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-
Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
422 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-230830-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
422 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ350-353-355-230830-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
422 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
443 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

CTZ005>012-230000-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-
443 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

...Elevated Risk of Wildfire Spread Today...

There is an elevated risk of wildfire spread today across
Southern Connecticut. This is due to relative humidity levels
dropping to 25 to 30 percent, and frequent wind gusts of 30 to 35
mph. While much of the area received one-quarter to one-half inch
of rainfall on Wednesday, the strong winds and low relative
humidity will allow fine fuels to dry out quickly. Similar
conditions are likely on Friday with wind gusts a bit lower.