Dense Fog Advisory 2, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
403 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure drags a cold front through the area this evening
and pulls northeast tonight. High pressure will prevail
thereafter through Tuesday night with another frontal system
affecting the area for midweek. A strong cold front will move
through the area to end the week, with high pressure returning
for next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Much of the area is entrenched in the warm sector of a low
pressure system to our northwest with the associated warm front
just to our north. Southerly flow will continue to strengthen
ahead of an approaching cold front from the west this evening.
Much of the rainfall from earlier has ceased with the passage of
the warm front. While there may be scattered showers through the
rest of the afternoon, they should be brief. Patchy dense fog is
possible through the afternoon and early evening ahead of the
cold front, especially closer to the coastline.

It's not until the cold front and the associated convective
squall line approaches the area around 6-7PM where the next
round of widespread rainfall occurs. This squall line should
result in a brief period of heavy rain with potentially gusty
winds as it is fairly narrow. There is a chance of some thunder
with this line as there is some low level instability.

Behind the cold frontal passage, some scattered showers will
linger as the wind begins to pick up and shifts to the west.
The pressure gradient tightens behind the front as a strong high
pressure begins to move in from the west. Winds overnight will
continue to increase with gusts upwards of 50 mph expected for
much of the area. With strong low level winds at the top of the
BL, it's possible to mix down some stronger gusts upwards of 60
mph, but these will be fairly localized and more likely to
occur in areas of higher terrain in CT and the Lower Hudson
Valley.

The gusty winds continue overnight and into the early morning as
skies become clear and conditions dry out. Lows tonight will be
in the lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Strong gusty winds will continue for much of the day Monday
under mostly sunny skies as the pressure gradient still remains
tight over the area. As we progress through the day, the
pressure gradient gradually weakens so gusty winds should start
to fall off late afternoon and early evening. Highs on Monday
will be in the low 50s.

High pressure positions itself overhead for Monday night. Fairly
light winds and clear skies should result in a fairly efficient
radiative cooling night which will allow temperatures to drop
into the 20s for the Interior and most prone areas. Elsewhere
along the coast, low temperatures will only drop into the
middle to upper 30s and potentially low 40s near the NYC metro.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Northern stream trough axis moves across the area Monday morning and
offshore Monday evening with shallow upper ridging building in on
Tuesday. Upper ridge axis sharpens and slides east Tuesday Night
ahead of the next deep northern stream trough sliding into the
Central US. This trough will gradually sharpen and slide towards the
east coast by Wednesday Night, likely closing as it slowly slides
across the NE US to end the week.

At the surface, strong low pressure will track NE through SE Canada,
with high pressure building into the Mid Atlantic and southern US. In
between, a tight pressure gradient will likely have wind gusts of 35
to 45 mph continuing into Mon morning, and then gradually weakening
through the afternoon. Temps will be near seasonable in downslope
flow and weak caa (mid 50s coastal plain, around 50 interior).

Ridging surface and aloft builds in for Mon Night and gradually east
Tuesday into Tuesday Night. Dry conditions expected, with return
flow bringing temps moderating above seasonable for Tuesday. Some
uncertainty on how far NW the sea breeze boundary works Tue (NW of
entire NYC/NJ metro or straddling it). For the coastal plain, a
SE backing of winds will likely keep temps in the 50s, rising
to lower 60s for NYC/NJ metro. For areas to the N & W of NYC/NJ
metro, temps should be able to rise well into the 60s with deep
mixing and southerly flow.

The next frontal system approaches on Wednesday, with potential for
another soaking rainfall with frontal wave development along it.
GEFS/ECE indicating an inner quartile range (25-75th percentile) of
1/4 to 3/4 inch rainfall, with reasonable worse case of 1 to 1 1/2
inches. NBM, a robust superensemble, is generally about 1/4" lower
than this.

In its wake, drying conditions but unseasonably chilly
conditions for the start of April with a polar shot of caa for
Thu/Fri ushered in on breezy NW flow as low pressure deepens in
eastern Canada. Temps on Thu will may only top out in the 40s for
most areas, and then possibly only upper 30s to lower 40s on Friday
as heart of polar air works down (10-15 degrees below seasonable).

Gradual moderation to seasonable and possibly above seasonable
through the weekend as the closed low slides east and surface high
pressure builds to the south.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An approaching warm front should lift to the northeast ahead of
a cold front this evening. Timing of warm fropa uncertain
especially to the northeast of the NYC metros. IFR/LIFR conds
prevail on the cool side of the front, and it is possible the
NYC metros except for perhaps KJFK could improve to MVFR before
a line of showers/tstms with the cold front arrives this
evening.

Cold fropa timing is more certain, either 22Z-23Z at KSWF, 23Z-
00Z at the NYC metros and KHPN, 00Z-01Z KBDR/KISP, and 02Z-03Z
KGON. Strong wind gusts are possible with the fropa. LLWS with
S-SW winds 40-55 kt at 2kft AGL should also continue until cold
fropa.

Conds should rapidly improve to VFR after cold fropa, while W
winds increase to 20-25G30-35kt overnight, and perhaps to
25-30G35-40kt daytime Mon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD likely for changing conditions this afternoon and to fine-
tune timing/impacts with cold fropa, and post-frontal winds
tonight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Monday afternoon and night...VFR. NW winds gradually
diminishing.
.Tuesday...VFR. S winds 10-15G20kt late afternoon at the NYC
metros.
.Wednesday...Rain with MVFR or lower cond. S winds 10-15G20kt at
the NYC metros and along the coast, becoming NW G25kt throughout
late at night.
.Thursday...MVFR possible, with chance of snow/rain showers at
KSWF and rain showers elsewhere. NW winds G25-30kt.
.Friday...VFR. NW winds G25-30kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gale Warnings are in effect tonight and through much of Monday
for all waters, then gradually subsiding to SCA Monday
afternoon, and then below SCA Mon Night. Seas of 8-10 ft Monday
morning, predominantly wind wave driven, will subside through
the day Monday into Mon Night in offshore flow.

High pressure builds in for Monday Night into Tuesday with sub SCA
conds.

Persistent southerly flow (around 15kt) Tue into Wed will have a
gradual ramp up of seas towards SCA level on Wed into Wed Night.
Better chance of SCA winds on all water late Wed Night into Thu in
wake of a strong cold front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Additional rainfall from this frontal system should amount of
another 1/4 - 3/4 of and inch. Any flooding should be limited
to nuisance minor localized flooding with the heavier rain in
any poor drainage and low lying areas.

Moderate potential for 1/4 to 3/4 inch rainfall Wed/Thu.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Strong offshore flow could then produce blowout tides along the
shores of western Long Island Sound Monday morning.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Monday for
     CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Monday for
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Monday for
     NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ330-335-338-340-345-
     350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NV/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...NV/MW
HYDROLOGY...NV/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
147 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

CTZ009>012-NYZ071-073-075-078>081-176>179-290000-
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Southern New London-Southern Westchester-Bronx-Kings (Brooklyn)-
Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-
Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
147 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

Areas of fog are moving in off the adjacent waters through the
afternoon and may at times become locally dense. Be on the
lookout for rapidly changing visibilities, use low beam
headlights, and allow extra breaking distance in case a sudden
stop is needed. Conditions may worsen and spread farther in from
the coast.