Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1224 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The forecast is in good shape and no significant changes are
expected through this evening.

At 8 PM CDT, skies were clear to partly cloudy across Middle
Tennessee. Temperatures were mild, in the 60s to lower 70s with
south breezes gusting over 20mph at times. We continue to look
west where some severe storms are forming across the Ozarks. Low
pressure was over northeast Missouri with a trailing cold front
back into Oklahoma. The pressure gradient will continue to
tighten up tonight as these features approach, so we can expect
more frequent gusty winds through the night.

Short range models continue to support a broken band of showers
and storms coming into the northwest corner of the Mid State
starting around 3 AM CDT. The most likely time (+/- an hour) for
thunder with gusty winds for Clarksville will be around 4 AM CDT,
Nashville around 6 AM CDT, and Cookeville about 9 AM CDT. Wind
fields are strong and shear is favorable for rotating storms, but
instability will be quite low, so the overall severe risk is low.
Still, some strong wind gusts could be brought briefly to the
surface. A brief spinup tornado cannot be ruled out, mainly west
of I-65.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR conditions are expected early in the TAF period before a line
of SHRA/TSRA brings MVFR vis/cigs to all airports later this
morning. Precipitation should only last a few hours at each
airport with all rain over by 17Z, but MVFR cigs will continue
for the remainder of the TAF period. Gusty south winds and LLWS
up to 50 knots will affect airports early this morning, with
surface winds veering to westerly then northwesterly by this
afternoon.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......13
AVIATION........Shamburger

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
253 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-252000-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
253 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move into Middle
Tennessee during the pre-dawn hours on Monday morning. A few storms
within the line could become strong to severe with damaging winds
the main threat, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
Areas west of Nashville are most likely to be affected during the
pre-dawn hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A line of showers and thunderstorms will move across Middle
Tennessee on Monday morning until around noon. A few storms within
the line could become strong to severe with damaging winds the main
threat, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The best
chance for any strong to severe storms during daylight hours will be
along the Cumberland Plateau.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

08

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
212 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

TNZ005-006-250800-
Stewart TN-Montgomery TN-
212 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern
Montgomery and Stewart Counties through 300 AM CDT...

At 210 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Martin, Tennessee to near Cadiz, Kentucky.
Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Dover, Clarksville, Big Rock, Cumberland City, Land Between The
Lakes, Indian Mound and Woodlawn.

This includes Interstate 24 between mile markers 1 and 2.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3666 8785 3663 8785 3664 8729 3637 8759
      3637 8772 3635 8774 3633 8778 3633 8788
      3635 8794 3635 8798 3645 8806 3647 8805
      3649 8806 3651 8804 3655 8803 3668 8807
TIME...MOT...LOC 0710Z 276DEG 39KT 3699 8774 3649 8849

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Shamburger