Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
632 AM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A shortwave trough axis is currently centered over western
Missouri into the Ozarks. Closer to home, a few showers with some
heavy downpours are moving across the eastern half. Models show
widespread showers and storms will work across the area today as
the trough axis approaches. Precipitable water values will be
around the 95th percentile leading to some heavy downpours. The
activity will be progressive enough that flooding will not be a
major concern. There should be enough cloud cover during the day
to limit the instability and any strong storm chances.

Drier air will slide into the area this evening bringing rain
chances to an end from west to east. Enough residual low level
moisture will linger for areas of fog to develop after midnight.
On Monday, a bulk of upper level energy will be diving south out
of the northern plains with a closed low developing over Arkansas
by the evening. Rain chances will be lower on Monday relative to
today, but a couple scattered showers or storms will be possible.
The closed low will be around the Mississippi Delta region on
Tuesday with a slug of moisture lifting north on the eastern side
of the low. This will ramp up rain and storm chances in our area
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning.

The global models slowly lift the upper low to the northwest on
Wednesday. The Euro leaves our area in a dry slot for most of the
day on Wednesday, while the GFS continues to have ample moisture
for us to work with. Rain chances continue on Thursday as the low
slowly drags northward. It looks like rain chances end on Friday
as the general large trough axis is east of the area. High temperatures
this week will be in the 70s with lows in the upper 50s to lower
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Radar trends indicate -SHRA and isolated -TSRA activity will
increase during the early part of the forecast period. Still are
expecting just isolated VCTS at all sites, with steady -SHRA to
SHRA until after 00Z when the frontal passage will make its way
through the mid-state. Amendments will likely be needed for any
stronger storms due to possible MVFR VIS and CIGS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Reagan
AVIATION........05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
502 AM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-041015-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
502 AM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
829 AM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021

TNZ007-025>027-031400-
Robertson TN-Dickson TN-Davidson TN-Cheatham TN-
829 AM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Davidson, northeastern Dickson, Cheatham and southwestern Robertson
Counties through 900 AM CDT...

At 829 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ashland City, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Springfield, Ashland City, Greenbrier, Coopertown, Joelton, Pleasant
View, Cheatham Dam, Beaman Park and Whites Creek.

This includes Interstate 24 between mile markers 19 and 41.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3627 8677 3612 8727 3636 8727 3639 8723
      3641 8720 3641 8718 3643 8717 3642 8716
      3642 8715 3643 8715 3659 8686
TIME...MOT...LOC 1329Z 236DEG 32KT 3627 8715

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Barnwell