Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
623 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

We are currently seeing isolated cells develop across Middle
Tennessee in what remains a warm, moist and unstable air mass.
Expect convective development to dissipate by sunset, with the
remainder of the night largely rain-free. Look for showers and a
few storms to begin developing across Middle Tennessee throughout
the day tomorrow as the outer bands from Hurricane Ida begin
spreading into the mid state. The heaviest rainfall from the
tropical system looks to hold off until late Monday night and all
day Tuesday, then starting to ease off after 00Z Wednesday. At
this time, the GFS looks to be the fastest model, with the Euro
and NAM lagging behind. At 00Z Wednesday, the GFS places the low
center just north of CSV, with the remaining pair of solutions
keeping the low center well south of BNA. Regardless, once the low
center exits the mid state, drying should be somewhat rapid, and
rainfall amounts after 12Z Wednesday will be minuscule. High
pressure will be quick to build into Middle Tennessee beginning
Wednesday night, with a broad, persistent area of subsidence
bringing dry, cooler weather to the region for the remainder of
the week and through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Scattered TSRA impacting BNA/MQY are will dissipate with sunset.
The overnight hours will feature VFR, except MVFR late night fog
at CSV. Winds will be light.

Monday will have mainly VFR, but isold-sct SHRA/TSRA will form in
the afternoon as bands of moisture from Hurricane Ida begin to
move into the area. Winds will be SSE around 7KT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from Monday evening through late Tuesday night
for Bedford-Cheatham-Clay-Davidson-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston-
Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-
Perry-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne-
Williamson-Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......08
AVIATION........13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
518 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-301000-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
518 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hurricane Ida is forecast to make landfall in Louisiana sometime
this afternoon or early evening, and then turn northeast and weaken
to a Tropical Depression as it moves near or across Middle Tennessee
Tuesday into Wednesday. Actual rainfall amounts across mid state
received will be highly dependent on eventual Ida track, current
indications through are showing that 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with
locally higher amounts, will be possible. This could lead to flash
flooding on already saturated ground conditions, especially for
locations around and west of I-65 Corridor. In addition, damaging
wind gusts and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out as the remnant
low crosses our area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following
all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

JB Wright

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
526 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

TNZ059-292300-
Williamson TN-
526 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Williamson County through 600 PM CDT...

At 526 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Franklin, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Brentwood, Nolensville and Oak Hill.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 61 and 74.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3604 8682 3604 8679 3601 8673 3601 8671
      3600 8669 3584 8676 3584 8693 3603 8697
      3605 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 180DEG 13KT 3591 8683

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Schaper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
632 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

TNZ093>095-300015-
Lawrence TN-Wayne TN-Giles TN-
632 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Wayne, Lawrence and
southwestern Giles Counties through 715 PM CDT...

At 631 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Collinwood to 9 miles southeast of
Lawrenceburg. Movement was north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lawrenceburg, Waynesboro, Loretto, Collinwood, St. Joseph, Minor
Hill, Ethridge, Leoma, Westpoint, Iron City, Cypress Inn and Lutts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3501 8790 3516 8799 3529 8798 3530 8802
      3533 8802 3538 8720 3500 8710
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 157DEG 17KT 3513 8783 3515 8721

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Schaper