Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1138 AM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Current forecast is on track and just updated to remove the early
morning wording. Scattered showers and thunderstorms on the radar
will continue to fill in through the day. Deep moisture to the
southwest. PW values from the 12 sounding were 1.66" for
us...1.74" for BMX and 2.02" for JAN. Even with scattered
thunderstorms heavy rainfall will be possible. Storm motion should
be 20-25 kts so unless storms train across the same location
widespread flash flooding should not be an issue today. Afternoon
high temperatures will be a bit warmer than yesterday...mid 80s
for the plateau to around 90 elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...We start the day with VLIFR conditions at CSV,
which should improve considerably by 13Z. Already an area of
mainly light showers is drifting across West Tennessee and will
cross the Tennessee River shortly, but the HRRR suggests that this
batch of rain will dissipate rather quickly. Stronger cells will
develop over West Tennessee this afternoon and will spread into
Middle Tennessee, so we'll handle this with TEMPO TSRA/CB's for
now. A shortwave approaching Middle Tennessee from the west looks
to intensify as it enters the mid state overnight, so look for
another round of showers and low ceilings after 06Z. Winds will
stay generally light/calm thru the TAF period.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......12
AVIATION........08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
716 AM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-191030-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
716 AM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a marginal risk of severe storms today, particularly during
the afternoon. The primary risk is strong to severe wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a high probability of showers and thunderstorms lasting
through Saturday night. Significant rainfall accumulations are
possible in areas that are affected by multiple rounds of storms, and
some flooding may occur, especially in areas near the Alabama state
line.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1206 PM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021

TNZ027-028-181745-
Davidson TN-Wilson TN-
1206 PM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central
Davidson and central Wilson Counties through 1245 PM CDT...

At 1206 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Mount Juliet, or 9 miles west of Lebanon, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lebanon, Mount Juliet, Belinda City, Rural Hill, Green Hill and
Gladeville.

Wilson County Fair Matrix will also be impacted.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 222 and 244.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 67 and 76.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3630 8617 3603 8619 3608 8649 3610 8652
      3609 8652 3610 8659 3627 8657 3628 8656
      3628 8652 3629 8643
TIME...MOT...LOC 1706Z 273DEG 13KT 3619 8650

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

FB