Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
220 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.DISCUSSION...

currently a weak frontal boundary is situated just north of I40,
and this boundary is expected to meander around the mid-state
through Mon. Moisture will remain pretty deep as PWATs go over
2...and instability will gets boosted during the afternoon/early
evenings. Thus later today and again on Sun and Mon, we will
again see scattered to numerous showers/storms develop. Our
chances of strong to severe storms remains low but our setup is
quite favorable for heavy rain and isolated brief flooding really
through Mon.

Early Mon however, TS Fred is expected to move onto the NWFL coast,
and slowly weaken. Its remants will move northeast into mid-week,
and while our frontal boundary will wash out, plenty of moisture
will remain over the region. At minimum, scattered showers/storms
will continue to develop Tue/Wed but our setup however will
remain such that our pcpn will be largely diurnal, and a few
storms may cause brief localized flooding. Again with the track
of this remnants shear quite low, with instability marginal in the
afternoons. Severe threat remains lower-end.

On Thu behind what is left of the tropical system, a weak upper
trough will swing by and that will keep the numerous shower/storm
development train rolling. But on Fri, weak ridging will build
aloft and that will reduce the threat of rain some for the
beginning of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Abundant moisture along with a surface front stalled out over the
area will lead to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. The
probability of impacting the terminals is high enough to include
in a tempo group. Storm activity will start to decrease after
15/00z. With the low level moisture in place, fog and low cigs
will be likely after midnight. Vis and cigs will gradually improve
during the morning as mixing increases. Winds will be variable
for the forecast period and generally under 5 kts unless a
terminal is impacted by a storm which could produce gusts in
excess of 25 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      71  88  71  84  70 /  40  70  70  90  40
Clarksville    68  84  69  83  69 /  30  40  50  80  30
Crossville     67  82  67  81  66 /  50  80  70  90  40
Columbia       70  87  70  83  70 /  50  70  60  90  30
Lawrenceburg   70  87  70  83  69 /  40  80  70  80  30
Waverly        69  85  69  84  69 /  40  60  50  80  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......07
AVIATION........Reagan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
527 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-151030-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
527 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the mid state.
Some of these storms may produce strong wind gusts and heavy
rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

08

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
132 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

TNZ034-141845-
Fentress TN-
132 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Fentress County through 145 PM CDT...

At 132 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Jamestown, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Allardt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3639 8469 3637 8470 3638 8472 3637 8473
      3635 8473 3635 8474 3634 8474 3633 8476
      3633 8477 3631 8479 3638 8488 3653 8477
      3652 8473 3644 8469 3641 8466 3640 8466
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 302DEG 14KT 3643 8475

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
323 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

TNZ033-142100-
Overton TN-
323 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Overton
County through 400 PM CDT...

At 323 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Livingston, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Livingston and Standing Stone State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 8521 3624 8525 3630 8546 3630 8547
      3631 8548 3631 8550 3633 8550 3648 8546
      3649 8545
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 281DEG 6KT 3639 8540

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
426 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

TNZ009-010-029>031-142200-
Trousdale TN-Clay TN-Jackson TN-Macon TN-Smith TN-
426 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Smith,
western Jackson, northwestern Clay, Macon and central Trousdale
Counties through 500 PM CDT...

At 426 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Lafayette to 7 miles east
of Hartsville. Movement was southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lafayette, Carthage, Hartsville, Red Boiling Springs, Bugtussle,
Dixon Springs and Pleasant Shade.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3662 8572 3621 8581 3637 8621 3664 8614
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 303DEG 11KT 3662 8598 3637 8603

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

13