Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
105 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Making a few changes with this morning's update. First deals with
the showers that are already popping up on the Plateau. Added some
PoP in for these unexpected showers. Still expecting more coverage
today than we've seen the last couple of days, however, the latest
hi-res guidance is going fairly conservative on the rain chances
today -- in fact, what we've been seeing in all of our major
models for the last several days is being contradicted in the last
couple runs of the HRRR. Not wholly sure what to make of this just
yet, but will continue to suggest more widespread activity for
tonight and the weekend for now and if we need to adjust, will do
so with this afternoon's package. For now, with the lack of
increasing clouds this morning, I've also bumped afternoon highs a
couple of degrees. Updates out shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Scattered storms are expected to continue through around 00z at
CSV. Other sites should remain precip free until late
tonight/early Saturday morning when a weakening line of storms
approaches from the west and impacts CKV, BNA, and MQY. Uncertain
as to how far east the line will push, but additional storm
development is expected close to 18z Saturday. Cigs are expected
to be mainly VFR with occasional MVFR at CSV Saturday morning.
Winds will be out of the southwest and gusty at times.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
320 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-170830-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
320 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across
the area today and early tonight. A few storms could be strong with
gusty winds and locally heavy rain...especially across the west.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across
Middle Tennessee Saturday and Sunday as well. A few storms could be
strong with gusty winds and locally heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not likely at this time.

07

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
143 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

TNZ028-030-064-161915-
Wilson TN-De Kalb TN-Smith TN-
143 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN SMITH...NORTHWESTERN DE
KALB AND SOUTHEASTERN WILSON COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

At 143 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Watertown, or 11 miles north of Woodbury, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Watertown, Gordonsville, Hickman, South Carthage, Alexandria,
Dowelltown, Liberty, Auburntown, Center Hill Lake and Edgar Evans
State Park.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 252 and 266.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3616 8580 3613 8581 3610 8579 3609 8577
      3608 8578 3607 8577 3593 8598 3596 8602
      3596 8608 3597 8609 3596 8610 3596 8615
      3595 8615 3596 8616 3596 8618 3598 8624
      3625 8599
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 222DEG 24KT 3599 8610

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