Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
223 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Pesky upper low/trough expected to remain key feature as least
into mid-week. Closed upper low currently over MO will wobble
around that vicinity well into Mon before finally opening late in
the day. This looks to bring a weak frontal boundary to near the
MS river Mon afternoon. The opening upper trough late Mon does
slowly dampen and move east through Tue, but really doesn't push
the SFC boundary through the mid-state, as it looks to wash out
later Mon as well. With really no significant SFC/LL features,
shear and for that matter instability remain so-so...although
instability does jump up a bit in the afternoons. Moisture does
remain quite deep thus fairly widespread showers/storms will
remain in the forecast late today into Tues...but will finally
see development decreasing mid-week. As said, severe parameters
are low-end and while a strong storm or two is possible, do not
expect to see widespread organized develop as this trough passes.

We do get that brief break mid-week from at least widespread
longer duration development as we see some moderate drying. But
late week and over next weekend, yet another ML/UL trough drops
into the MS river valley, strong moisture advection again gets in
gear, and a cycle similar to ours now starts all over again. This
pattern will also bring a more diurnal boost to our instability,
but shear looks to remain low-end right now. Regardless, we will
see an uptick in pcpn development on Fri, and then scattered to
numerous showers/storms over next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Scattered TSRA/SHRA continues to move across the area. If
TSRA/SHRA moves directly over a terminal, expect temporary
decrease in vis to MVFR/IFR. By 07Z to 08Z tomorrow, should see a
small break in SHRA activity and lowering cigs will bring all
airports down to MVFR with some IFR cigs/vis developing at CSV by
11Z. Probably won't see improvements to VFR until around 18Z or
later tomorrow. S/SW winds will be gusty mainly in the afternoons,
with gusts upwards of 15 to 20 kts and sustained winds around 10
kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      70  84  71  84  70 /  60  80  60  70  20
Clarksville    69  83  70  83  68 /  50  60  50  70  20
Crossville     66  80  67  78  66 /  50  60  60  70  40
Columbia       69  83  70  83  68 /  70  80  60  70  20
Lawrenceburg   69  82  69  82  67 /  60  80  70  70  20
Waverly        69  82  69  83  69 /  60  80  50  70  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......07
AVIATION........Adcock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
513 AM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-121015-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
513 AM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few strong storms will be possible this afternoon and overnight.
Strong winds and heavy downpours will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

11

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
437 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021

TNZ065-078-080-112200-
Van Buren TN-Warren TN-White TN-
437 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN VAN BUREN...
NORTHEASTERN WARREN AND SOUTHERN WHITE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 436 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of McMinnville, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
McMinnville, Sparta, Spencer, Doyle, Virgin Falls State Natural Area,
Rock Island State Park and Fall Creek Falls State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3556 8560 3568 8578 3583 8566 3583 8565
      3585 8563 3586 8564 3600 8553 3583 8527
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 218DEG 24KT 3569 8564

Rose