Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
200 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

.DISCUSSION...

It's another soupy day for most across Middle TN, however, some have
found relief in the way of the remnants of Danny this afternoon. In
fact, the northern edge of Danny has tapped into some pretty
unstable air, allowing for a few storms to produce hail close to
severe limits. Rainfall totals have been healthy, too, with some
getting a quick inch and a half or better. These storms should
continue to translate to the west and northwest over the next
several hours and with plenty of instability along and north of
I-40 to tap into, a few strong to severe storms will be possible
for the next few hours. Quarter sized hail and gusty winds will be
the main concerns. Scattered showers are possible through early
evening even behind these heavier storms, but once we lose the
heating of the day, the spigot should turn off for the night.
While coverage should be a little less than we've seen so far
today, Wednesday should bring diurnal chances of showers and
thunderstorms once again. The good news, tomorrow should be the
last of the 90+ degree days for the rest of the week. The bad
news, that'll be because of additional storms expected in here
Thursday and Thursday night.

Models continue to show an unseasonable cold front is expected to
push through the region late Thursday night/Friday morning. Ahead of
said front, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected.
Rainfall totals will be up there, with anywhere from 1 to 3 inches
expected with the front. Some totals could be slightly higher than
that because of elevated PWs (2+ inches) as the front moves through,
bringing efficient rainfall to the mid-state. I don't expect any
widespread issues, but I wouldn't be surprised to hear of some
localized flooding issues by Friday morning. Beyond the rain,
forecast soundings still look pretty tame. Bulk shear values are
slightly higher than yesterday (25-30 kts) but on the whole, there
doesn't seem to be the organizational aspects needed for a severe
threat. That said, Thursday could provide a strong storm or two. It
is summer and any heat added to the lifting forces of a front means
there's at least a chance.

After frontal passage on Friday, those who dislike summer are going
to be thrilled. Much drier air and temperatures several degrees
below normal are expected for your Independence Day weekend. We'll
start to warm back towards 90 Monday and Tuesday, so if you like it
cooler, get out and take advantage this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Mostly VFR conditions with occasional MVFR expected with passing
storms this afternoon. With only isolated showers and a few storms
around the Plateau, CSV may be able to get by without any direct
impacts. BNA, MQY, and CKV are likely to see some passing storms
with brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds between now and 01z.
Conditions will become calm overnight with scattered to broken mid
clouds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  89  73  86  70 /  40  60  30  80  80
Clarksville    71  87  71  83  66 /  30  60  40  80  80
Crossville     66  83  67  80  66 /  30  60  30  80  90
Columbia       69  88  70  87  70 /  30  50  30  80  80
Lawrenceburg   69  87  70  87  70 /  30  50  30  80  90
Waverly        70  86  71  84  67 /  40  60  30  80  80

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
157 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-301900-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
157 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon, with
some storms being strong and able to produce some gusty winds, hail
and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will move in Wednesday through
Friday, with some strong storms possible during the afternoon
Wednesday and again Thursday afternoon and evening. Gusty winds and
heavy rain will be the main threats. Any area that sees multiple
rounds of heavy rain today through Friday could see some minor
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

27

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
211 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

TNZ024-056-057-291945-
Hickman TN-Humphreys TN-Perry TN-
211 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY...SOUTHERN HUMPHREYS AND
NORTHWESTERN HICKMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 210 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Hurricane Mills to 7 miles southwest of
Linden. Movement was west at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Linden, New Johnsonville, Hurricane Mills, Lobelville, Mousetail
Landing State Park, Bucksnort and I-40 Near The Tennessee River.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 136 and 152.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3566 8802 3572 8804 3577 8798 3583 8797
      3587 8794 3592 8793 3594 8793 3594 8798
      3595 8801 3597 8802 3600 8800 3602 8800
      3594 8762 3554 8783 3555 8800 3562 8804
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 106DEG 16KT 3591 8781 3556 8795

Schaper

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
217 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 S CENTERVILLE         35.68N  87.44W
06/29/2021                   HICKMAN            TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREE DOWN ON SWANN CREEK ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2100553

UNGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
228 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

TNZ025-292000-
Dickson TN-
228 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DICKSON COUNTY UNTIL 300
PM CDT...

At 227 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Burns, or over Dickson, moving west at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dickson, White Bluff, Burns, Charlotte and Vanleer.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 165 and 178.
 Interstate 840 near mile marker 1.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3602 8755 3605 8755 3625 8746 3612 8717
      3610 8717 3597 8728 3600 8754 3602 8754
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 106DEG 16KT 3605 8733

Schaper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
253 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

TNZ028-030-064-292030-
Wilson TN-De Kalb TN-Smith TN-
253 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SMITH...NORTHWESTERN
DE KALB AND EASTERN WILSON COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 253 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Watertown, or 13 miles southwest of Carthage, moving west at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lebanon, Watertown, Gordonsville, Alexandria, Dowelltown, Liberty,
Cedars Of Lebanon State Park, Tuckers Crossroads and Dickerson Chapel
Recreation Area.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 240 and 258.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3618 8594 3601 8596 3603 8632 3631 8623
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 108DEG 16KT 3612 8611

Schaper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
321 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

TNZ005-023-024-292100-
Stewart TN-Humphreys TN-Houston TN-
321 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN STEWART...HOUSTON AND
NORTH CENTRAL HUMPHREYS COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 321 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tennessee Ridge, or near Erin, moving northwest at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Waverly, Dover, Erin, Tennessee Ridge, Cumberland City and Houston
County Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3655 8780 3637 8759 3634 8759 3634 8755
      3631 8752 3607 8775 3613 8792 3617 8792
      3618 8793 3622 8795 3626 8794 3631 8796
      3635 8798 3637 8800
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 117DEG 19KT 3623 8775

Schaper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
325 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

TNZ006-025-026-292115-
Dickson TN-Cheatham TN-Montgomery TN-
325 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DICKSON...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY AND NORTHERN CHEATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM
CDT...

At 325 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ashland City, moving west at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ashland City, Clarksville, Pleasant View and Cheatham Dam.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3636 8697 3622 8705 3624 8739 3653 8732
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 110DEG 16KT 3633 8709

Schaper