Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1057 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms already starting to fire ahead of the
cold front off to our northwest. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s
and even some peeks at the sun this morning are providing plenty
of heat and moisture, and models indicating high instability for
these storms. CAMs have brought activity a bit earlier than the
previous forecast, and the storms that have fired off to the west
are even earlier still. With the slow storm motions around 10
knots, and PWAT values above 2 inches, flooding potential remains
high, and any shower or storm will be able to put down very heavy
rain in a short timeframe. With the instability and shear in
place, damaging winds will be the main threat with severe
thunderstorms, and an isolated tornado can not be ruled out with
such strong instability. But, will have to monitor rain rates and
training of heavy showers and storms for flooding potential across
the mid state, especially this afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR begin the TAF, except at CSV, where MVFR CIGs have developed.
Low-level cu have blossomed there, but -SHRA chances will stay
low for now. An approaching cold front sparks TSRA by 17z-18z at
CKV, moving into BNA/MQY by 20z-21z, and CSV by 23z-00z. Expect
VIS/CIG reductions to IFR with LIFR possible. Activity moves east
overnight, exiting CSV by 12z Tue.

SW wind continues to increase and may gust 20-25 kts ahead of the
front. Winds slow and become NW behind the front after 21z-03z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........Schaper

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
524 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-221030-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
524 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few strong to possibly severe storms are expected this afternoon
and evening. The main threats will be damaging straight line winds
and isolated flooding if storms repeatedly track over the same areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

11

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1218 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

TNZ008-009-211745-
Sumner TN-Macon TN-
1218 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SUMNER AND
NORTHWESTERN MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM CDT...

At 1217 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Westmoreland, or 13 miles west of Lafayette, moving northeast at 30
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Westmoreland.

LAT...LON 3662 8590 3649 8628 3659 8637 3665 8631
TIME...MOT...LOC 1717Z 238DEG 28KT 3658 8626

Barnwell