Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
151 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Showers are finally starting to blossom across Middle TN. In
fact, at forecast time, we've finally seen our first CtG lightning
strike. Most of today's activity is going to be weak and
meaningless, much like it's been the last few days. Maybe a wind
gust to 40 mph and some very heavy rain. We've been lacking shear
(which we still are today), but the other thing we've been missing
is a lifting mechanism. We might actually have one today. Cloud
cover west to east across Middle TN is causing a fairly tight
temperature gradient and this differential heating boundary could
be one of those tripping mechanisms we need for a few stronger
storms to develop. Again, it won't be widespread as organization
is very unlikely, but worth keeping an eye to the sky this
afternoon and into the evening hours. Storms should start to wane
by midnight, but as they do, we could see some fog start to
develop. Some areas could be patchy and dense.

Rain chances are expected to fall off after today. Will they go
completely away? Not until next week, but this weekend's rain
chances should be fairly minimal as we lose the influence of upper
troughing over the region. Problem is, less rain/clouds means
it's going to heat up pretty significantly and it won't be at the
expense at humidity. Heat Index values will be pushing 100 degrees
in a few spots Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

Two waves of dry air are still expected to swing through the mid-
state this week. After some 90s Sat-Sun-Mon, mid 80s with much
lower humidity is still expected by Wed-Thu. The best part is
we'll have an opportunity to dry out a bit, as well.

Extended guidance has been persistent in developing something
tropical in the northern Gulf of Mexico towards the end of the
week. Timing/strength/realism is still up in the air, but one
thing I would expect is the heat and humidity to return by next
weekend. PoPs are still up in the air.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue today before
the influence of a slow moving upper trough finally moves east
tonight into Saturday. Where rain falls, it could be very heavy.
Shower and storm coverage will be greatest at CSV and lowest at
CKV. As showers and storms taper off after 00Z, areas of fog and
stratus will form and impact all sites through the night. All
sites will improve quickly to VFR after 14Z. Winds will be out of
the west this afternoon, becoming north tonight, generally less
than 10KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      71  91  71  91  68 /  40  20  10  20  10
Clarksville    70  90  70  89  66 /  20  20  20  20  10
Crossville     66  83  66  84  65 /  60  20  10  20  10
Columbia       70  90  71  90  68 /  40  20  10  20  10
Lawrenceburg   70  89  69  90  68 /  40  20  10  20  10
Waverly        71  89  71  89  67 /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
515 AM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-121015-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
515 AM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A couple strong thunderstorms with heavy downpours which could cause
localized flooding and gusty winds are possible along and east of
I-65.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
431 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

TNZ006-025-026-112200-
Dickson TN-Cheatham TN-Montgomery TN-
431 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL DICKSON...CENTRAL
MONTGOMERY AND NORTHWESTERN CHEATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 431 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Clarksville, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clarksville, Pleasant View, Cunningham and Cheatham Dam.

This includes Interstate 24 between mile markers 7 and 17.

LAT...LON 3659 8720 3648 8712 3646 8713 3644 8710
      3632 8700 3630 8743 3654 8745
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 332DEG 19KT 3652 8733

Whitehead

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
432 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

TNZ008-028-112215-
Wilson TN-Sumner TN-
432 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SUMNER AND CENTRAL WILSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 431 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Gallatin to 7 miles northwest of Lebanon.
Movement was south at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Gallatin, Lebanon, Bledsoe Creek State Park and Cottontown.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 231 and 242.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 72 and 76.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3651 8641 3629 8631 3611 8615 3603 8633
      3643 8658
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 348DEG 8KT 3638 8647 3630 8641

FB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
501 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

TNZ006-025>027-112245-
Dickson TN-Davidson TN-Cheatham TN-Montgomery TN-
501 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL DAVIDSON...CENTRAL
DICKSON...SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY AND CHEATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM
CDT...

At 501 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles south of Clarksville, moving south at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dickson, Ashland City, Clarksville, White Bluff, Kingston Springs,
Pegram, Pleasant View, Charlotte, Vanleer, Slayden, Cheatham Dam,
Bells Bend and Cunningham.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 199 and 201.
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 16 and 17.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 8713 3611 8687 3608 8749 3649 8743
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 353DEG 17KT 3637 8728

Barnwell