Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
213 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Convection beginning to take place upstream across the Mo bootheel
northeastward along the Ohio River. Latest Hrrr data has the
activity reaching our far northwestern corner around 3-4 pm. A svr
tstm watch is now in effect to our west. Severe wx parameters do
indeed look better across that area and not as favorable here.
Therefore, it looks as though the severe weather potential in our
western areas will largely be momentum dependent. That said, recent
storm history upstream will be key. So far, no reports of wind or
hail but a few warnings have been issued across the bootheel. For
our area, wind and hail are the primary threats for primarily those
areas west of i-65. The weakening convection will end across our
Plateau by 10pm - midnight.

Moving on, Friday is looking partly cloudy and nice with highs 65 to
70. Conditions will begin to change on Saturday as a warm front
begins to work northward. Low shower chances will return early
Saturday and continue into Saturday night. On Sunday, the warm front
will be north of the mid state and destabilization will be on the
increase. A cold frontal passage is expected Sunday evening. Prior
to this, frontal and pre frontal forcing will attempt to tap into
the instability and increasing shear. Another round of severe storms
will be possible. Note however that at this time we are not
outlooked. That will likely change to at least a marginal as we
approach Sunday.

For our near term temps, below normal values are expected. However,
we will be close to the normal, upper 70s highs, on Sunday, in
advance of that boundary.

In the ext fcst, after the fropa on Sunday evening, temperatures
will cool down to 7-10 degrees below normal for the entire week. The
subtropical jet will become active and send an inverted sfc trough
our way by Wednesday. So the week as a whole will be on the
unsettled side with low shower chances, except somewhat higher
chances for Wednesday.

Qpf amounts are not looking too bad. Looks like 1 to 1 1/2 inches
over the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR conditions through the first half of the day. -SHRA/-TSRA
will move through the area beginning with CKV as early as 20Z and
end with CSV by 05Z. Periods of decreased vis/cigs will
be possible if shower/storm passes directly over a terminal.

Winds will become predominantly W/NW by this afternoon and
continue through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      46  70  51  65  56 /  70   0  20  40  20
Clarksville    44  69  50  64  55 /  30   0  30  50  40
Crossville     42  62  46  58  50 /  30   0  20  40  20
Columbia       44  71  50  68  57 /  60   0  20  40  10
Lawrenceburg   45  70  50  70  57 /  60   0  20  30  10
Waverly        45  69  51  66  56 /  40   0  30  50  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
509 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-071015-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
509 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
into this evening mainly across our northwestern counties. Main
concerns are damaging wind gusts and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following
all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

09

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
344 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021

TNZ005-006-023-062130-
Stewart TN-Montgomery TN-Houston TN-
344 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...STEWART
AND NORTHWESTERN HOUSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 342 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles south of Land Between The Lakes Area
to 6 miles southwest of McKenzie. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Dover, Tennessee Ridge, Big Rock, Land Between The Lakes, Houston
County Airport and Indian Mound.

LAT...LON 3666 8785 3663 8785 3664 8755 3623 8786
      3624 8794 3631 8796 3645 8806 3649 8806
      3652 8804 3656 8803 3668 8807
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 267DEG 36KT 3670 8813 3607 8860

10