Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
236 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Showers are beginning to develop along the surface low which is
centered over the western part of the CWA. Current RAP analysis
shows 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE over the southwestern third of the
CWA with mid level lapse rates between 7-7.5 degrees Celsius. HRRR
has continued to show some storms developing in the next hour or
two. Right now, no thunder has been noted with echo tops only
around 22 kft. Thinking has not changed much in regards to severe
potential. One or two storms could be strong with gusty winds and
small hail. The activity will move to the west by 03z leaving
Middle Tennessee dry for the next several days.

We will start a warming trend tomorrow and temperatures for most
of the area will be in the 80s by Monday. Strong upper ridging
will develop on Monday with surface high pressure off the east
coast of the Carolinas. I bumped highs up a degree or two from NBM
Tuesday and Wednesday which could allow some locations to creep
into the mid 80s both days. Euro and GFS are not on the same page
with the system that approaches late Wednesday. GFS has a more
progressive solution while the Euro hangs the southern trough
behind the northern stream. Both solutions keep the bulk of the
rain out of the area until Thursday, but the GFS solution would
produce more rain than the Euro solution. In fact, the trough
would not clear our area until late next weekend according to the
Euro solution while the GFS solution has a nice weekend in store
for us. Given the discrepancy, forecast confidence is low from
Thursday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR cigs will affect airports this afternoon as
additional -SHRA and VCTS move across the area. All rain should
end by 25/00Z with MVFR cigs at BNA/MQY overnight and IFR/LIFR
cigs with MVFR vis at CKV/CSV. East to southeast winds this
afternoon will switch to northwest later this afternoon into the
evening as an area of low pressure shifts eastward through the
region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      47  69  46  81  58 /  20   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    46  68  47  80  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
Crossville     45  64  43  75  54 /  50   0   0   0   0
Columbia       47  69  45  81  57 /  20   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   48  69  46  80  56 /  30   0   0   0   0
Waverly        47  71  49  82  59 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Reagan
AVIATION........Shamburger

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
457 AM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-251000-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
457 AM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

While the probability is low, a strong thunderstorm or two is
possible this afternoon for areas south of I-40, especially closer to
the Alabama state line. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph and small hail
are the main concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

27

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
439 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             LEWISBURG               35.45N  86.79W
04/24/2021  E0.75 INCH       MARSHALL           TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2100439

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
441 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     HAIL             FRANKLIN                35.93N  86.84W
04/24/2021  E0.75 INCH       WILLIAMSON         TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2100440

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
442 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             MURFREESBORO            35.85N  86.39W
04/24/2021  E0.75 INCH       RUTHERFORD         TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2100441

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
443 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     HAIL             THOMPSON'S STATION      35.81N  86.91W
04/24/2021  E0.75 INCH       WILLIAMSON         TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2100442

21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
447 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

TNZ061-095-242215-
Giles TN-Marshall TN-
447 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MARSHALL AND
SOUTHERN GILES COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 446 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Pulaski, moving east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pulaski, Ardmore, Elkton, Minor Hill, Goodspring, Frankewing and
Prospect.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 1 and 17.

LAT...LON 3500 8717 3512 8719 3533 8668 3530 8668
      3525 8675 3526 8683 3499 8684
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 258DEG 43KT 3509 8705

21

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