Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
833 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Updated suite of forecast products to reflect issuance of Tornado
Watch 54 through 1 AM CDT Friday. Blended latest NAMNest,
CONSShort, and HRRR models per best initialization and evolution
of main line of showers and thunderstorms moving across mid state
region during these early to mid evening hours. Tweaked hourly
temperature, dewpoint, and wind speed/direction grids. Remainder
of forecast continues to be on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CKV/BNA/MQY/CSV...Several admendments probable for rounds of
shwrs/tstms across mid state region thru 26/04Z. Generally VFR
ceilings and vsbys expected thru 26/24Z. With continuing
uncertainty of tstms moving across terminals, continue to mention
vcnty tstm at terminals thru 26/04Z. With strong low level jet
dynamics in place, wind shear at top of 2 Kft layer 45-55kts.
During relatively same time frame, surface wind gusts to around
30kts possible. Initial sustained southerly winds 7-12kts will
veer to west thru 26/24Z. Convection should end across mid state
region by no later than 26/06Z. Surface pressure gradient
influences should weaken by around 26/10Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-
Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-
Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-
Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van
Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.

Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for Bedford-Cannon-Cheatham-
Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Fentress-Giles-
Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-
Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-Putnam-Robertson-
Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-Wayne-
White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......JB Wright
AVIATION........JB Wright

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Nashville TN
438 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-261000-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
438 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Remainder of this Afternoon and Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are likely across Middle Tennessee remainder
of this afternoon into evening hours. Severe thunderstorms will be
capable of producing damaging wind gusts of 60 mph or greater, large
hail, and tornadoes, of which a couple could be long-track.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for all of Middle Tennessee until
1 AM CDT Friday. Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will cause
excessive rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher
amounts of around 4 inches possible.

A Wind advisory is in effect for all of Middle Tennessee until
4 AM CDT Friday. Southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph are expected
with localized gusts to around 40 mph possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday across all of Middle
Tennessee. Damaging wind gusts and hail are the main threats with
these storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS while
following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

Spotter Thunderstorm Reporting Criteria...
Tornado
Funnel Cloud
Flooding
Hail >= 1/2 Inch
Winds > 50 MPH (Measured)
Structural Damage
Trees or Power Lines Down

JB Wright

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
640 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

TNZ007-260000-
Robertson TN-
640 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ROBERTSON COUNTY
UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 640 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Springfield, moving northeast at 80 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Springfield and Orlinda.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for Middle
Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3665 8670 3649 8685 3659 8703 3665 8699
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 214DEG 68KT 3661 8689

Rose

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
655 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

TNZ025>027-057-059-260030-
Hickman TN-Williamson TN-Dickson TN-Davidson TN-Cheatham TN-
655 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DAVIDSON...
SOUTHEASTERN DICKSON...NORTHWESTERN WILLIAMSON...SOUTH CENTRAL
CHEATHAM AND CENTRAL HICKMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 655 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Centerville, moving northeast at 65 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dickson, Centerville, White Bluff, Kingston Springs, Pegram, Burns,
Fairview, Bon Aqua, Primm Springs, Lyles and Nunnelly.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 171 and 193.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 1 and 12.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for Middle
Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3621 8720 3604 8694 3584 8718 3585 8721
      3585 8722 3580 8722 3562 8743 3562 8747
      3563 8750 3563 8753 3570 8764
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 219DEG 54KT 3571 8750

Rose

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
739 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

TNZ008-027>029-059-060-062-260115-
Rutherford TN-Williamson TN-Davidson TN-Wilson TN-Maury TN-
Trousdale TN-Sumner TN-
739 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DAVIDSON...
NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD...NORTHERN MAURY...SOUTHEASTERN SUMNER...
CENTRAL WILLIAMSON...WESTERN WILSON AND SOUTHWESTERN TROUSDALE
COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 739 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Hermitage to near Franklin to 10 miles
north of Mount Pleasant. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Lebanon, Hartsville, Hendersonville, Smyrna, Brentwood, La
Vergne, Spring Hill, Mount Juliet, Nolensville, Forest Hills, Oak
Hill, Lakewood, Thompson's Station, Hermitage, Rural Hill, Antioch,
Belinda City, Berry Hill and Dickerson Chapel Recreation Area.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for Middle
Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3644 8608 3605 8640 3574 8687 3564 8733
      3565 8733 3589 8697 3624 8669
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 251DEG 34KT 3620 8668 3592 8691 3570 8724

Rose

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1022 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

TNZ011-032>034-065-066-078-080-260400-
Putnam TN-Cumberland TN-Fentress TN-Overton TN-Pickett TN-
Van Buren TN-Warren TN-White TN-
1022 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OVERTON...PICKETT...NORTHWESTERN
CUMBERLAND...NORTHERN VAN BUREN...NORTHEASTERN WARREN...WHITE...
EASTERN PUTNAM AND FENTRESS COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

At 1022 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Cookeville, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Crossville, Sparta, Livingston, Jamestown, Spencer, Byrdstown,
Monterey, Allardt, Pleasant Hill, Doyle, Grimsley, Virgin Falls State
Natural Area, Rock Island State Park, Rickman, Pall Mall, Clarkrange,
Crawford and Fall Creek Falls State Park.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 290 and 318.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for Middle
Tennessee. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 100 AM CDT
for Middle Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3660 8480 3629 8486 3621 8491 3615 8491
      3614 8489 3576 8526 3575 8570 3662 8517
TIME...MOT...LOC 0322Z 237DEG 47KT 3606 8540

07

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1037 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

TNZ034-065-066-080-260415-
Cumberland TN-Fentress TN-Van Buren TN-White TN-
1037 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CUMBERLAND...NORTHEASTERN VAN
BUREN...SOUTHEASTERN WHITE AND SOUTHWESTERN FENTRESS COUNTIES UNTIL
1115 PM CDT...

At 1036 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Crossville, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Crossville, Fairfield Glade, Crab Orchard, Pleasant Hill, Grimsley,
Lake Tansi, Cumberland Mountain State Park, Slate Springs, Indian
Rock Lake, Clarkrange, Virgin Falls State Natural Area and Fall Creek
Falls State Park.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 310 and 340.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for Middle
Tennessee. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 100 AM CDT
for Middle Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3586 8473 3576 8492 3575 8502 3577 8504
      3576 8507 3577 8516 3576 8527 3575 8526
      3576 8541 3627 8500 3625 8488 3621 8491
      3615 8491 3613 8487 3608 8483 3610 8482
      3609 8480 3600 8472 3592 8468
TIME...MOT...LOC 0336Z 237DEG 49KT 3596 8505

07

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1037 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

TNZ078>080-260400-
Van Buren TN-Grundy TN-Warren TN-
1037 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL VAN BUREN...SOUTHEASTERN
WARREN AND GRUNDY COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

At 1037 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Spencer, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Spencer, Gruetli-Laager, Altamont, Coalmont, Palmer, Beersheba
Springs, Fall Creek Falls State Park and Pelham.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for Middle
Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3528 8591 3575 8544 3576 8526 3572 8527
      3557 8542 3555 8546 3553 8561 3552 8559
      3549 8554 3543 8554 3542 8551 3541 8551
      3541 8549 3536 8551 3532 8556 3530 8566
      3529 8569
TIME...MOT...LOC 0337Z 237DEG 49KT 3570 8540

07