River Flood Advisory 93, NWS Nashville, TN

472 
WGUS84 KOHX 041432
FLSOHX

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Nashville TN
932 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

...The Flood Advisory is replaced with a River Flood Warning for the 
following rivers in Tennessee...

  Buffalo River Near Lobelville affecting Perry County.

TNC135-041545-
/O.CAN.KOHX.FL.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-210504T1432Z/
/LBVT1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
932 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

...The Flood Advisory for the Buffalo River Near Lobelville has been 
replaced...

The Flood Advisory is replaced by a river flood warning for
  the Buffalo River Near Lobelville.
* At 8:30 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 13.6 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late 
  this morning and continue rising to 16.5 feet just after midnight 
  tonight. Additional rises are possible thereafter.


&&

LAT...LON 3600 8789 3600 8783 3579 8774 3565 8778
      3565 8785 3579 8782

$$

07

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
231 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Complex system in place, with mid-state getting several rounds of
showers/storms through Tue evening. Widespread development this
morning was largely associated a passing warm front and an upper
wave. This warm front now well up in the OH valley and the upper
wave has pushed off to the east, thus we are seeing a brief lull.

Low-level jet dynamics have dropped off a bit but now being in
the warm sector, we will see our instability climb with breaks in
the clouds and dewpoints in the low/mid 60s. Later this afternoon
CAPE values expected to be 2000+ and shear will be pretty good as
well. And these type parameters will remain well into Tues
before finally dropping off a good bit late in the day.

Tight SFC low and decent upper trough currently over the plains
will make its way slowly east, finally dragging a cold front
across the area Tues night. In the meantime, threat of severe
storms will continue, especially into Tues afternoon. Our next
rounds of showers/storms may occur as early as this evening.
Activity will increase late this afternoon to our northwest, and
those storms may ride down into the mid-state after sunset and
move across though the late evening. The next bigger round of
showers/storms is likely to start toward dawn around the TN river,
then move east throughout the morning. SFC low at this point
already working into the MS river valley. With our severe
parameters remaining quite elevated, both of these rounds likely
to see at minimum isolated strong/severe storms, with damaging
wind/hail main threats. Even following these, Tues afternoon we
may see yet another episode of storms as the cold front get set to
push through. However late in the day severe parameters not quite
as favorable. LLJet structure is weaker and instability less, but
isolated severe still seeming in the picture, maybe into the
early evening.

Finally late Tues night, the frontal boundary and upper wave
pass and we will get a break from these waves of rain and storms
into next weekend when the next decent system is set to affect us.
We will even see a brief cool down into mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR to VFR is being restored across the terminals for this
afternoon. RA is ending with only an isolated TS possible thru
00z. Developing TS are possible after 02z-03z and may continue
intermittently thru the TAF period. MVFR to IFR can be expected as
storms pass near the sites. Otherwise, WSW winds will again become
SSW this evening. CKV/BNA/MQY may continue gusting to 15-20 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      67  80  55  69  47 /  70  80  90   0   0
Clarksville    65  78  51  66  45 /  70  90  70   0   0
Crossville     62  76  54  65  45 /  50  80  90  20   0
Columbia       65  80  53  69  47 /  70  80  80   0   0
Lawrenceburg   66  79  55  68  47 /  70  80  80  10   0
Waverly        64  79  51  68  47 /  70  90  70   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......07
AVIATION........Schaper

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
500 AM CDT Mon May 3 2021

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-041000-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
500 AM CDT Mon May 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Some severe storms are possible early this morning and again tonight
across Middle Tennessee, mainly after midnight. Main threats are
damaging winds and large hail. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected on Tuesday in
the late morning and afternoon hours. Some severe storms are
possible with damaging winds and large hail the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following
all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

08