River Flood Advisory 76, NWS Nashville, TN

776 
WGUS84 KOHX 311415
FLSOHX

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Nashville TN
915 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021

...The Flood Advisory is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Tennessee...

  Duck River At Columbia affecting Maury County.

TNC119-311515-
/O.CAN.KOHX.FL.Y.0076.000000T0000Z-210331T1415Z/
/COLT1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
915 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021

...The Flood Advisory for the Duck River At Columbia has been 
cancelled...

The Flood Advisory is cancelled for
  the Duck River At Columbia.
* At 8:00 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 25.9 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 32.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 27.9 feet 
  tomorrow evening, which would keep it below of Action stage, which 
  is 28.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3565 8732 3577 8721 3563 8682 3552 8689

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
912 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Showers continue to develop to our west as a surface frontal
boundary lifts northward. Evening balloon here at the office
highlighted PWAT values of 1.12", little instability, and shear
values around 20-30kts. In terms of severe weather potential, the
better dynamics appears to be south of I-40 closer to the AL/TN
border and our southwestern counties where some instability could
creep in overnight behind the warm front. Can't rule out damaging
wind gusts or an isolated tornado, but the overall threat appears
to be low. Our main concern heading into the rest of the evening
is the flash flooding potential. PWAT values are already up to
1.2" with values as high as 1.6" closer to Memphis. Latest MRMS
data from West TN has some rainfall rates of 1" per hour, which
would be concerning for our area. Our FFG is very low given our
saturated grounds and it will not take a lot to overwhelm some
local creeks and streams. Heaviest band of showers will likely
enter our NW counties in the next few hours, reach downtown just
after midnight, and move towards the Plateau by early morning.
Latest CAMs guidance has all of Middle TN receiving 1+" with some
areas seeing amounts closer to 2-3". 2-3" would be especially
concerning if the heaviest rain bands line up over the swath that
saw the most rainfall over the weekend. Flash Flood Watch remains
in effect as flash flooding is looking increasingly likely
overnight. Heaviest showers will exit the area by mid- morning as
our cold front will help move things out swiftly. Could see some
lingering showers in the afternoon, but overall the majority of
our heavy rainfall will fall overnight.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Expect decreased flight categories through the TAF period as a
line of showers/t'storms (some heavy at times) moves from west to
east through the area. Expect for cigs to begin dropping by 04Z at
CKV, 06Z for BNA/MQY, and 09Z for CSV associated with periods of
SHRA and TSRA. Heaviest downpours could lead to periods of IFR to
LIFR vis.

Gusty southerly winds will begin to become northerly across the
area between 08Z and 14Z beginning with CKV and ending with CSV.
Sustained winds in the 10-15kt range with gusts upwards of
15-25kts are expected.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-
Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-
Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-
Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van
Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......Adcock
AVIATION........Adcock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
506 AM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-311015-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
506 AM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Flooding along many rivers and streams is ongoing as a result of
weekend rainfall event.

Some strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible for locations
approaching central and western portions of Tennessee River Valley
Region tonight. Main concern will be damaging winds.

A flash flood watch is in effect for all of middle Tennessee starting
this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Several river and stream levels will remain elevated through at
least midweek, some continuing through Sunday...with some warnings
and advisories continuing also.

Some strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible for locations
approaching central and western portions of Tennessee River Valley
Region through early Wednesday morning. Main concern will be
damaging winds.

A flash flood watch is in effect for all of Middle Tennessee through
Wednesday evening. With already significant saturated ground
conditions, 1 to 2 inches...with locally higher amounts around 3
inches...of rainfall possible. Rainfall will cause excess runoff and
localized flash flooding, including adding additional water level
rises on already elevated area rivers and creeks.

It is expected to turn colder late week with several frosty nights.
A widespread freeze is expected Thursday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following
all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

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