Special Weather Statement, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
626 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021

Scattered storms have developed and may continue to produce some
hail and gusty winds for several hours this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021

.Late this afternoon through Tonight:

Early-afternoon radar and satellite data indicate a rather small
vorticity maximum lifting from northern NE into southeast SD
(north of O'Neill) with a trailing band of mid-level convection
extending into north-central NE. Meanwhile, surface observations
indicate a low between Yankton, SD and Norfolk with an associated
quasi-stationary boundary stretching northeast and southwest from
the low. The air mass along and south of the boundary continues
to warm and destabilize this afternoon with estimated MLCAPE
values of 1000-1500 J/kg. While convective inhibition appears to
be decreasing, the 12z Omaha sounding revealed a significant cap
at the base of an EML. As such, it's quite possible the air mass
remains capped through much of the afternoon over our area. Any
storm development related to the mid-level disturbance mentioned
above will likely remain north of the SD border.

By this evening, the leading edge of more substantial height falls
associated with a shortwave trough moving into the central High
Plains will further weaken the cap with thunderstorms becoming
likely along the front over northeast NE into west-central IA.
While vertical wind shear will remain relatively weak, the
moderately unstable air mass and initially well-mixed boundary
layer could yield a few storms capable of locally strong wind
gusts and/or hail approaching an inch in diameter.

By late evening into tonight, the storms are expected to
consolidate into a southward-moving band, which should reach I-80
before potentially weakening. Meanwhile, an MCV is expected to
evolve from an MCS currently over northeast CO. That MCV is
forecast to link with the weakening band of showers and storms
over southeast NE late tonight, yielding an uptick in shower and
storm coverage south of I-80 through daybreak on Monday.

The 12z models have trended lighter with QPF amounts for this
event when compared to earlier forecasts. Nonetheless, the
potential remains for localized 1-3" rainfall amounts.

.Monday and Monday night:

Showers will likely linger through Monday morning at many
locations with precipitation ending from west to east across the
area. Winds will be gusty from the north or northwest with highs
in the 60s. On Monday night, a vigorous shortwave trough will
track across KS and OK with the northern edge of an associated
precipitation shield potentially clipping southeast NE and
southeast IA.

.Tuesday:

A temporary period of mid-level height rises will translate to dry
weather on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 60s.

.Wednesday and Wednesday night:

Another shortwave trough is forecast to move from the northern
Rockies through the central plains, supporting a chance of showers
and a few thunderstorms. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 60s.

.Thursday through Saturday:

The 12z global models are in reasonably good agreement in
suggesting that an initially high-amplitude ridge over the Rockies
on Thursday will dampen while shifting east into the High Plains,
downstream from an evolving trough over the western states.
However, there are notable model differences in the intensity and
progression of the western trough, as well the extent to which
the southwestern flank of a broad upper low over eastern Canada
will impact our weather. Those differences lead to uncertainty in
the placement of relevant surface boundaries and related areas of
precipitation. Currently, it appears that the best precipitation
chances would be Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021

Storms will be around this evening and should increase in
coverage. Storms may not affect KOMA or KLNK for a few hours this
evening but activity should increase in coverage with decreasing
ceilings overnight, down to MVFR. Some IFR ceilings possible
toward 12Z. Coverage at KOFK may be less, but still expect MVFR
ceilings with some showers and a chance for thunderstorms.
Coverage of precipitation is expected to decrease Monday by noon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

UPDATE...Miller
DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Miller

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
702 PM CDT SUN MAY 2 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     HAIL             7 WSW HERMAN            41.63N 96.35W
05/02/2021  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PF

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