Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS Omaha, NE

246 
WGUS63 KOAX 030320
FFAOAX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1020 PM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021

NEZ042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-031200-
/O.CON.KOAX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-210903T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-
Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-
Richardson-
Including the cities of Wahoo, Tecumseh, Yutan, Table Rock, 
Sterling, Columbus, Bellevue, David City, Blair, Fremont, Lincoln, 
Omaha, La Vista, Nebraska City, Milford, Papillion, Ashland, Seward, 
Pawnee City, Beatrice, Schuyler, Plattsmouth, Auburn, Wilber, Falls 
City, Crete, and Fairbury
1020 PM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of east central Nebraska, northeast Nebraska and 
  southeast Nebraska, including the following areas, in east central 
  Nebraska, Butler, Dodge, Douglas, Sarpy, Saunders and Washington. 
  In northeast Nebraska, Colfax and Platte. In southeast Nebraska, 
  Cass, Gage, Jefferson, Johnson, Lancaster, Nemaha, Otoe, Pawnee, 
  Richardson, Saline and Seward.

* Until 7 AM CDT Friday.

* Scattered thunderstorms will be moving across parts of eastern 
  Nebraska overnight. Some of the storms will produce locally heavy 
  rain that could be enough to produce some flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

BCM

114 
WGUS63 KOAX 030533
FFAOAX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021

NEZ042>044-050-051-030645-
/O.CAN.KOAX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-210903T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Butler-Saunders-
Including the cities of Columbus, Wahoo, David City, Yutan, Fremont, 
Schuyler, and Ashland
1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of east central Nebraska and 
northeast Nebraska, including the following areas, in east central 
Nebraska, Butler, Dodge and Saunders. In northeast Nebraska, Colfax 
and Platte has been cancelled.

The threat for heavy rain has ended, and thus the Flood Watch is 
cancelled.

$$

NEZ045-052-053-065>068-078-088>093-031200-
/O.CON.KOAX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-210903T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Washington-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-Jefferson-
Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
Including the cities of Sterling, Milford, Beatrice, Bellevue, 
Omaha, La Vista, Nebraska City, Tecumseh, Blair, Lincoln, 
Plattsmouth, Auburn, Papillion, Wilber, Falls City, Crete, Fairbury, 
Seward, Pawnee City, and Table Rock
1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of east central Nebraska and southeast Nebraska, 
  including the following areas, in east central Nebraska, Douglas, 
  Sarpy and Washington. In southeast Nebraska, Cass, Gage, 
  Jefferson, Johnson, Lancaster, Nemaha, Otoe, Pawnee, Richardson, 
  Saline and Seward.

* Until 7 AM CDT this morning.

* Scattered thunderstorms will continue to move across parts of 
  eastern Nebraska overnight. Some of the storms will produce 
  locally heavy rain that could be enough to produce some minor 
  flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

DeWald

223 
WGUS63 KOAX 030612
FFAOAX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
112 AM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021

NEZ045-052-053-065-078-088-030715-
/O.CAN.KOAX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-210903T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Washington-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Saline-Jefferson-
Including the cities of Milford, Bellevue, Omaha, La Vista, Blair, 
Papillion, Wilber, Crete, Fairbury, and Seward
112 AM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of east central Nebraska and 
southeast Nebraska, including the following areas, in east central 
Nebraska, Douglas, Sarpy and Washington. In southeast Nebraska, 
Jefferson, Saline and Seward has been cancelled.

The threat for heavy rain and flash flooding has ended, and thus the 
Flash Flood Watch is cancelled.

$$

NEZ066>068-089>093-031200-
/O.CON.KOAX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-210903T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
Including the cities of Sterling, Lincoln, Table Rock, Tecumseh, 
Nebraska City, Beatrice, Plattsmouth, Auburn, Pawnee City, and Falls 
City
112 AM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of southeast Nebraska, including the following areas, 
  Cass, Gage, Johnson, Lancaster, Nemaha, Otoe, Pawnee and 
  Richardson.

* Until 7 AM CDT this morning.

* Scattered thunderstorms will continue to move across parts of 
  eastern Nebraska overnight. Some of the storms will produce 
  locally heavy rain that could be enough to produce some minor 
  flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

DeWald

690 
WGUS63 KOAX 030742
FFAOAX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
242 AM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021

NEZ066>068-089-090-030845-
/O.CAN.KOAX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-210903T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Gage-Johnson-
Including the cities of Sterling, Lincoln, Tecumseh, Nebraska City, 
Beatrice, and Plattsmouth
242 AM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of southeast Nebraska, including 
the following areas, Cass, Gage, Johnson, Lancaster and Otoe has 
been cancelled.

The Flood Watch is cancelled.

$$

NEZ091>093-031200-
/O.CON.KOAX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-210903T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
Including the cities of Pawnee City, Table Rock, Falls City, and 
Auburn
242 AM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of southeast Nebraska, including the following areas, 
  Nemaha, Pawnee and Richardson.

* Until 7 AM CDT this morning.

* Scattered thunderstorms will continue to move through the area 
  early this morning. Locally heavy rain will be possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

DeWald

045 
WGUS63 KOAX 030850
FFAOAX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
350 AM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021

NEZ091>093-031000-
/O.CAN.KOAX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-210903T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
Including the cities of Pawnee City, Table Rock, Falls City, and 
Auburn
350 AM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of southeast Nebraska, including 
the following areas, Nemaha, Pawnee and Richardson has been 
cancelled.

The Flood Watch is cancelled. Flooding is no longer expected to pose 
a threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

$$

DeWald

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
252 PM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021

...Updated Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021

Main concern is late this afternoon and tonight with the
potential for severe storms accompanied by heavy rainfall.

WV imagery was showing a shortwave trof approaching the Black Hills
with an attendant cold front arching through western NE. Convective
activity pushing ahead of the front occurring within area of moist
upglide. A glace at 88D mosaic was showing some development along
the boundary over north-central NE.

Threat for severe storms will increase over the area heading into
the early evening hours. The RAP/HRRR is suggesting notable
environmental shear/stout effective shear and ESRH/ by that time
with the maxima progged to run along the I-80 corridor within the
CWA. Given that the environment will at least be conducing for
supercell development, a tornadic storm or two cannot be totally
ruled out. Eventually as storm mode evolves, the primary threat
will transition to damaging winds.

As eluded to, storms will be accompanied by heavy rain. Mesoanalysis
was showing stout low level moisture transport underway into the
central Plains with PW values up to 2". Precip efficiency will be
maximized overnight with a deep low-level warm layer in place
coupled with continued strong inflow of moisture advection. With
time the RAP advertises PW values approaching 2.5" with KI soaring
to 40. At this point, there is somewhat of a signal that areas along
and south of I-80 may see the brunt of rainfall accumulation
where omega phases well with better instability and boundary layer
convergence. By events end Friday morning, areas south may well
see locally heavy amounts around 2" inches or so over portions of
southeast NE.

Post-frontal thunderstorms will be possible Friday night mainly over
the southern CWA in association with several minor impulses
aloft.

Otherwise, very pleasant conditions with mild temperatures and
plenty of sunshine expected.

Highs

Fri - mid/upper 70s
Sat - mid 70s
Sun - upper 70s/low 80s
Mon - low/mid 80s
Tue - low 80s
Wed - upper 70s/low 80s
Thu - upper 70s/low 80s

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021

There is a good chance for showers and thunderstorms for the
region later this afternoon and this evening along with a slight
risk for severe storms capable of strong damaging winds, large
hail and perhaps a brief tornado. Showers are expected to spread
eastward over the course of the afternoon with stronger storms
developing later this afternoon, reaching KOMA and KLNK closer to
23Z. MVFR conditions may be possible within areas of heavy rain
as well as behind the precipitation where fog may develop.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...DEE
AVIATION...Kern

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
315 PM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-031015-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
315 PM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

The greatest for severe weather tonight will be across eastern
Nebraska mainly during the early evening hours. The primary threat
with these storms will be damaging winds. In addition to this,
environmental shear will be conducive that an isolated tornado
cannot be ruled out.

Excessive rainfall will be possible as well overnight. As of now,
it appears that the brunt of accumulations will be realized south
of the I-80 corridor with the potential for 2 inches or so over
southeast Nebraska. Thus localized flooding will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.