Areal Flood Warning 6, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
551 AM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021

Summary:

The heavy rain is ongoing and will continue through today,
diminishing to spotty showers by Monday. Total rainfall still on
track to range from 2 to 3.5". And there is still a chance for the
rain to mix with snow or freezing rain in northeast NE and
northwest IA late but with minor accumulations expected. Easterly
winds 25 to 35 mph sustained today, with gusts 45 to 55 mph at
times. And there remains a chance that we'll see some river
flooding across portions of eastern NE by Monday into Tuesday.

Today through Monday.

Rain continues, and a lot of it. We did set the daily
precipitation record yesterday at Lincoln with 0.79 inches, which
broke the previous record of 0.68 inches in 1990. The rain will be
moderate to heavy today, and we'll likely set new daily
precipitation records at all three climate sites at Lincoln,
Omaha, and Norfolk with over 2.25" forecast at each location. And
the two-day totals from yesterday and today will likely set two-day
rainfall totals for the entire month of March. There may still be
rumbles of thunder across southeast Nebraska before 12z, but not
seeing much instability beyond then so have left the mention of
thunder out at this time.

The other concern today will be increasing easterly winds, with
sustained speeds reaching 25 to 35 mph. The gusts could reach 45
to 50 mph, and a few locations could even hit 55 mph through late
morning. Thus a wind advisory will continue for all areas today.

High temperatures will pretty much remain status quo from where
there are now, so overall it will be a pretty raw day out there.

Regarding flooding, we do have several rivers that are forecast to
experience substantial within bank rises, and a few locations are
forecast to experience minor flooding Monday into Tuesday,
including the Platte River, the Elkhorn River, Maple Creek, the
Big and Little Blue Rivers, Lincoln Creek, Turkey Creek, and Wahoo
Creek. We did issue a Hydrologic Outlook for those locations
yesterday evening, and we'll take another look with the next run
of river forecasts that we'll get later this morning. We'll
probably need to issue some river flood warnings later today.

The rain will shut off from south to north tonight as a dry slot
moves into the region. And with the dynamical cooling noted in
northeast NE and northwest IA, the precipitation could mix with
snow, or because we lose deep layer saturation, the rain could
just become freezing rain as surface temps cool below freezing.
Thus we do have a wintry mix in our far northern CWA. But really,
it's a race of the heavier precipitation moving out before temps
can cool sufficiently, so amounts are forecast to be light, mostly
less than an inch of snow or less than a tenth of an inch of ice.
But heavier amounts are forecast just to the north/northeast of
our forecast area, so it's something we'll closely watch, and the
75th percentile for snow accumulations if it changes faster
suggest a couple of inches of slushy snow would be possible.

Monday will see a chance of spotty showers and generally cloudy
skies as the cold core remains aloft, but additional rainfall
would be light less than one tenth of an inch. Fortunately winds
will be significantly lighter.

Tuesday through Thursday:

There could be a few lingering showers in northeast NE on Tuesday
with the remnants of the cutoff off. Of more substance will be the
next closed low moving out of the southern Rockies and onto the
southern Plains. This will bring another blustery day Wednesday
with gusty northeasterly winds, and another chance of snow and
rain. We'll have to watch this system closely as it's a favored
track for heavy snow across our area. The GFS suggests a swath of
heavy snow of a few inches across southwest NE and southwest IA,
but the ECMWF is warmer, and suggests this swath could be rain.
WPC has a low probability of impactful winter weather across the
area, and again, it's something we'll be monitoring closely.

After lingering precipitation Thursday, we should see dry and
warmer weather for Friday and Saturday with highs heading back
into the 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021

Rain, heavy at times, will continue through the TAF period. It
will generally decrease in intensity after 0Z as some snow may mix
in at KOFK. As drier air works in at the mid-levels, showers will
transition to drizzle. The drizzle should remain wet for KOMA and
KLNK, but freezing drizzle is possible at KOFK as the TAF period
wraps up. Cigs continue to lower until settling in under FL010.

Generally expect MVFR visibilities with occasional IFR vis with
heavier rain bands.

Strong sfc winds with gusts up to 45 knots have been reported and
may continue through 07Z Monday. Wind shear is of note through 0Z
Monday with particularly powerful winds of 60knots at FL010 and
FL020.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

DISCUSSION...DeWald
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
902 AM CDT SUN MAR 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0901 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SURPRISE                41.10N 97.31W
03/14/2021  M3.75 INCH       BUTLER             NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
914 AM CDT SUN MAR 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0904 AM     HEAVY RAIN       FRIEND                  40.66N 97.29W
03/14/2021  M3.12 INCH       SALINE             NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

0911 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SE COLUMBUS           41.42N 97.33W
03/14/2021  M3.45 INCH       PLATTE             NE   PUBLIC

0720 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NE LINCOLN            40.84N 96.64W
03/14/2021  M3.48 INCH       LANCASTER          NE   PUBLIC

0912 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSE LINCOLN           40.78N 96.67W
03/14/2021  M3.19 INCH       LANCASTER          NE   PUBLIC

0912 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 E LINCOLN             40.81N 96.66W
03/14/2021  M2.32 INCH       LANCASTER          NE   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1001 AM CDT SUN MAR 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1.7 W WAHOO             41.22N 96.65W
03/14/2021  M2.58 INCH       SAUNDERS           NE   COCORAHS

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2.0 W SYRACUSE          40.66N 96.22W
03/14/2021  M2.71 INCH       OTOE               NE   COCORAHS

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5.9 ESE MILFORD         40.74N 96.95W
03/14/2021  M2.90 INCH       SEWARD             NE   COCORAHS

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1.6 ESE COLUMBUS        41.43N 97.33W
03/14/2021  M2.90 INCH       PLATTE             NE   COCORAHS

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       9.0 ENE LINCOLN         40.87N 96.53W
03/14/2021  M2.90 INCH       LANCASTER          NE   COCORAHS

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       0.4 WSW MILFORD         40.77N 97.06W
03/14/2021  M2.95 INCH       SEWARD             NE   COCORAHS

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1.2 ENE LINCOLN         40.82N 96.67W
03/14/2021  M3.09 INCH       LANCASTER          NE   COCORAHS

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5.8 WSW LINCOLN         40.78N 96.79W
03/14/2021  M3.10 INCH       LANCASTER          NE   COCORAHS

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3.4 E FRIEND            40.65N 97.22W
03/14/2021  M3.12 INCH       SALINE             NE   COCORAHS

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4.5 SE LINCOLN          40.77N 96.63W
03/14/2021  M3.17 INCH       LANCASTER          NE   COCORAHS

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5.0 NNE ROCA            40.72N 96.63W
03/14/2021  M3.26 INCH       LANCASTER          NE   COCORAHS

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5.8 SSE LINCOLN         40.74N 96.65W
03/14/2021  M3.28 INCH       LANCASTER          NE   COCORAHS

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3.9 W LINCOLN           40.82N 96.76W
03/14/2021  M3.29 INCH       LANCASTER          NE   COCORAHS

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       0.5 NE SEWARD           40.92N 97.09W
03/14/2021  M3.39 INCH       SEWARD             NE   COCORAHS

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       0.1 SSE UTICA           40.89N 97.34W
03/14/2021  M4.10 INCH       SEWARD             NE   COCORAHS

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 SW ULYSSES            41.03N 97.28W
03/14/2021  M4.52 INCH       SEWARD             NE   COCORAHS

&&