Areal Flood Warning 1, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
528 AM CST Sat Jan 30 2021

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CST Sat Jan 30 2021

TODAY

Quick updated on flood concerns with ice jams on the Loup and
Platte rivers. Some minor flooding was reported earlier today in
low-lying farmland but things have seemed to quiet down as the
ice and water translate downstream. Will be monitoring through
the day today.

Fog hasn't made much for inroads to the CWA at the moment with
visibility reduced at a few northwestern sites, but dense fog just
west of here. Some sites out west are under a 1/4 mile. Expect
visibility to continue slipping on western half of CWA.

We continue to melt snow as of 3:00 AM for most locations and the
southeastern half of the area will spend much of the day in the
warm sector as snow depth continues to slip.

Most of the area will see the precip fall exclusively as drizzle
with saturated low levels and drier air above 3000 feet. Chance
of drizzle expands through the day. QPF is near zero. Freezing
drizzle may create some slick spots where temps struggle to
manage freezing along the South Dakota border where QPF may be
higher.

As the approaching low introduces more moisture and dials up the
lift, rain will fall in the southeastern parts of the CWA. Latest
guidance has a more southerly track and QPF has diminished
significantly across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. The NBM's
50th percentile now has Omaha and areas north and west of there
basically dry. Still may see 0.3-0.7" along the Missouri state
line, but heaviest precip will fall on the other side of the
border.

Anticipating that some light snow may mix in after sunset as the
system departs. Accumulations are no longer expected.

SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK

Sunday brings dry weather and slightly cooler temps as skies clear
west to east. Lows will hit teens by early Monday morning. Ridging
brings seasonably mild temps by mid-week with southerly flow
leading to some 40s by Wednesday afternoon.

LATE NEXT WEEK

Impacts remain possible with next system ejecting out of the
Rockies on Wednesday night. Guidance less excited about snow
prospects with latest runs, but still some solutions holding on
to a significant precip event. About one in five solutions
suggests over half an inch of QPF over the area. NBM's 90th
percentile brings a couple inches of snow. Not a safe bet, but
possible and impactful. Breezy winds and colder temps are
anticipated behind the system regardless of the amount of precip.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 527 AM CST Sat Jan 30 2021

5 AM surface analysis placed a low over north-central KS with an
associated inverted trough extending north-northeast to between
KOLU and KFET. The lowest ceilings and visibilities currently
reside along and west of trough. Latest model guidance is
suggestive that fog could become a bit more widespread between now
and 9 AM as the trough edges east with visibilities potentially
dropping at KLNK. Otherwise, a shield of rain developing over KS
will spread northeast today with KLNK and KOMA likely falling on
the northern fringe of that precipitation. The rain could mix with
snow this evening at KOMA before ending.

IFR ceilings are expected materialize at KOFK within the next
hour or two, by mid morning at KLNK, and closer to midday at KOMA.

Light east or northeast winds will switch to north later today
while strengthening considerably.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for NEZ011-012-
     016>018-030>032-042-043-050-065-078-088.

IA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Mead

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
527 AM CST Sat Jan 30 2021

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-310130-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
527 AM CST Sat Jan 30 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Ice has been moving along the Loup and Platte rivers with
fluctuating water levels and some significant rises were reported
near Genoa, Columbus and Fremont as this water is moving
downstream. If you have interests along these rivers, monitor
levels closely as they may fluctuate quickly when ice is involved.

Patchy dense fog is expected to continue developing eastward over
northeast Nebraska this morning with visibility less than one
quarter mile at times.

Patchy freezing drizzle is possible over northeast Nebraska.
Temperatures will warm in this area through the day but the
drizzle will become more widespread and periods of freezing
drizzle will remain possible where colder temperatures exist.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A storm system is likely to impact the Central Plains around next
Thursday. While the details are unclear at this time, especially
in terms of storm track and location, the potential exists for
significant winter precipitation.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotter activation will not be needed.