Small Craft Advisory 234, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

904 
WHUS76 KMTR 191539
MWWMTR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
839 AM PDT Tue Oct 19 2021

PZZ570-192345-
/O.CON.KMTR.SC.Y.0232.211019T1600Z-211019T2200Z/
/O.CON.KMTR.GL.W.0039.211019T2200Z-211020T0800Z/
Waters from Point Arena to Point Reyes 10-60 NM-
839 AM PDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, southeast winds 20 to 30 kt with 
  gusts up to 45 kt and seas 8 to 10 feet at 12 seconds 
  expected. For the Small Craft Advisory, southeast winds 15 to 
  25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt expected.

* WHERE...Waters from Point Arena to Point Reyes 10-60 NM.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 3 PM this afternoon to 1 AM 
  PDT Wednesday. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 3 PM PDT 
  this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ540-192345-
/O.CON.KMTR.SC.Y.0232.211019T2200Z-211020T1000Z/
/O.CON.KMTR.SC.Y.0234.211020T2200Z-211021T0400Z/
Coastal Waters from Point Arena to Point Reyes California out to
10 nm-
839 AM PDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the first Small Craft Advisory, southeast winds 20 
  to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt expected. For the second Small 
  Craft Advisory, southeast winds 10 to 15 kt and seas 8 to 11 
  feet at 13 seconds expected.

* WHERE...Coastal Waters from Point Arena to Point Reyes 
  California out to 10 nm.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, from 3 PM this afternoon 
  to 3 AM PDT Wednesday. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 3 PM 
  to 9 PM PDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ571-192345-
/O.CON.KMTR.SC.Y.0232.211019T2200Z-211021T0400Z/
Waters from Point Reyes to Pigeon Point 10-60 NM-
839 AM PDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 
  6 to 11 feet at 13 seconds expected.

* WHERE...Waters from Point Reyes to Pigeon Point 10-60 NM.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ575-192345-
/O.CON.KMTR.SC.Y.0232.211019T2200Z-211021T0400Z/
Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos 10-60 NM-
839 AM PDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 
  8 to 10 feet at 13 seconds expected.

* WHERE...Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos 10-60 NM.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ576-192345-
/O.CON.KMTR.SC.Y.0232.211020T0400Z-211021T0300Z/
Waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas 10-60 NM-
839 AM PDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt 
  expected.

* WHERE...Waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas 10- 
  60 NM.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 8 PM PDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ545-192345-
/O.CON.KMTR.SC.Y.0232.211020T0400Z-211020T2200Z/
Coastal Waters from Point Reyes to Pigeon Point California out to
10 nm-
839 AM PDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 3 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt 
  expected, resulting in hazardous conditions near harbor 
  entrances.

* WHERE...Coastal Waters from Point Reyes to Pigeon Point 
  California out to 10 nm.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft 
  especially when navigating in or near harbor entrances.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Small craft should use extreme caution when navigating in or near
harbor entrances.

&&

$$

PZZ560-192345-
/O.CON.KMTR.SC.Y.0232.211020T0400Z-211020T2200Z/
Coastal Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos California out to
10 nm-
839 AM PDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 3 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt expected.

* WHERE...Coastal Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos 
  California out to 10 nm.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ565-192345-
/O.CON.KMTR.SC.Y.0232.211020T0400Z-211020T2200Z/
Coastal Waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas
California out to 10 nm-
839 AM PDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 3 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt 
  expected.

* WHERE...Coastal Waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras 
  Blancas California out to 10 nm.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ530-192345-
/O.CON.KMTR.SC.Y.0232.211020T0400Z-211020T1600Z/
San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, the West Delta and  the San Francisco
Bay north of the Bay Bridge-
839 AM PDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt expected.

* WHERE...San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, the West Delta and the San 
  Francisco Bay north of the Bay Bridge.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ531-192345-
/O.CON.KMTR.SC.Y.0233.211020T1000Z-211020T1600Z/
San Francisco Bay South of the Bay Bridge-
839 AM PDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt 
  expected.

* WHERE...San Francisco Bay South of the Bay Bridge.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/sanfrancisco

560 
WHUS76 KMTR 192058
MWWMTR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
158 PM PDT Tue Oct 19 2021

PZZ540-200500-
/O.UPG.KMTR.SC.Y.0232.211019T2200Z-211020T1000Z/
/O.EXB.KMTR.GL.W.0039.211019T2200Z-211020T1000Z/
/O.CAN.KMTR.SC.Y.0234.211020T2200Z-211021T0400Z/
Coastal Waters from Point Arena to Point Reyes California out to
10 nm-
158 PM PDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and 
  seas 7 to 12 feet at 12 seconds expected.

* WHERE...Coastal Waters from Point Arena to Point Reyes 
  California out to 10 nm.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM PDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ571-200500-
/O.UPG.KMTR.SC.Y.0232.211019T2200Z-211021T0400Z/
/O.EXB.KMTR.GL.W.0039.211019T2200Z-211020T1000Z/
Waters from Point Reyes to Pigeon Point 10-60 NM-
158 PM PDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 
  7 to 12 feet at 12 seconds expected.

* WHERE...Waters from Point Reyes to Pigeon Point 10-60 NM.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM PDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ575-200500-
/O.UPG.KMTR.SC.Y.0232.211019T2200Z-211021T0400Z/
/O.EXB.KMTR.GL.W.0039.211020T0400Z-211020T1000Z/
Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos 10-60 NM-
158 PM PDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 
  8 to 10 feet at 12 seconds expected.

* WHERE...Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos 10-60 NM.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ545-200500-
/O.UPG.KMTR.SC.Y.0232.211020T0400Z-211020T2200Z/
/O.EXB.KMTR.GL.W.0039.211020T0400Z-211020T1000Z/
Coastal Waters from Point Reyes to Pigeon Point California out to
10 nm-
158 PM PDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 
  8 to 10 feet at 12 seconds expected.

* WHERE...Coastal Waters from Point Reyes to Pigeon Point 
  California out to 10 nm.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ530-200500-
/O.UPG.KMTR.SC.Y.0232.211020T0400Z-211020T1600Z/
/O.EXB.KMTR.GL.W.0039.211020T0400Z-211020T1000Z/
San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, the West Delta and  the San Francisco
Bay north of the Bay Bridge-
158 PM PDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 40 kt expected.

* WHERE...San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, the West Delta and the San 
  Francisco Bay north of the Bay Bridge.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ570-200500-
/O.CON.KMTR.SC.Y.0232.000000T0000Z-211019T2200Z/
/O.EXT.KMTR.GL.W.0039.211019T2200Z-211020T1000Z/
Waters from Point Arena to Point Reyes 10-60 NM-
158 PM PDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, south winds 20 to 30 kt with 
  gusts up to 45 kt and seas 10 to 15 feet at 12 seconds 
  expected. For the Small Craft Advisory, southeast winds 20 to 
  25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt.

* WHERE...Waters from Point Arena to Point Reyes 10-60 NM.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 3 AM PDT Wednesday. For the 
  Small Craft Advisory, until 3 PM PDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ576-200500-
/O.EXT.KMTR.SC.Y.0232.211020T0400Z-211021T0200Z/
Waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas 10-60 NM-
158 PM PDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  seas 8 to 10 feet at 13 seconds expected.

* WHERE...Waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas 10- 
  60 NM.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 7 PM PDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ560-200500-
/O.CON.KMTR.SC.Y.0232.211020T0400Z-211020T2200Z/
Coastal Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos California out to
10 nm-
158 PM PDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 3 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  seas 8 to 10 feet at 13 seconds expected.

* WHERE...Coastal Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos 
  California out to 10 nm.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ565-200500-
/O.CON.KMTR.SC.Y.0232.211020T0400Z-211020T2200Z/
Coastal Waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas
California out to 10 nm-
158 PM PDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 3 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt 
  expected.

* WHERE...Coastal Waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras 
  Blancas California out to 10 nm.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ531-200500-
/O.CON.KMTR.SC.Y.0233.211020T1000Z-211020T1600Z/
San Francisco Bay South of the Bay Bridge-
158 PM PDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt expected.

* WHERE...San Francisco Bay South of the Bay Bridge.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1029 PM PDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler conditions persist this week with rain chances
returning Tuesday. Additional rain chances will arrive Thursday
evening and again next weekend as a more powerful storm system
arrives.

&&

.NEAR TERM [Through TDY MORN]..18/830 PM.

GOES-WEST Mid-level Water Vapor Imagery is capturing the elongated
moisture tongue that is being advected along the PVA zone to the
east of the elongated 523dm 500mb trough centered at ~140W. This
tongue is currently blocked off from the California Coast by a
weak mid-level ridge in the wake of yesterday's disturbance. While
some remnant moisture manifested in the form of faint, isolated
showers and high-base CUs in the morning, have remained relatively
today across the CWA. The axis of this mid-level ridge will
gradually move ashore over the next 18-24 hours, allowing for
higher PWAT values to stream into the Coastline by tomorrow
afternoon. For now, are on track for a clear and quiet night
across the CWA with patchy clouds along portions of the immediate
coast and some radiational fog in the interior North Bay valleys
by dawn. The lower RH values tonight relative to last night will
also help the environment cool off much faster, and so have
progged min temps for tomorrow morning in the 40s F for much of
the CWA, along the mid to upper 30s at some of our elevated ranges
> 2000 ft.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...18/830 PM.

The moisture tongue that is currently upstream from the Northern
and Central California coastline will continue to travel up and
over the mid-level ridge Tuesday afternoon, and so will begin to
observe greater concentrations of high-base clouds across the
North Bay and eventually the rest of the Bay Area and portions of
the Central Coast by early evening. The latest short-range
deterministic solutions continue to favor the eventual progression
of the moisture tongue into the Bay Area by late Tuesday evening
as the ridge exits the region. The showers associated with the
tongue will travel towards the S and E along the cold front,
starting in the coastal ranges of Sonoma County and streaming
south of the Golden Gate and into the rest of the Bay Area
overnight before eventually streaming into the Central Coast
before daybreak on Wednesday morning. If this setup sounds
familiar it is because the synoptic-scale environment will hold a
resemblance to the one last night, down to the axial tilt of the
trough. Only this time around expect greater PWAT values
exceeding one inch. The key difference is that the parade of
storm systems is now well underway. Following the FROPA, will
continue to observe lingering showers across the region Wednesday
and into Thursday, albeit with lower rain rates than what is
progged for the FROPA. Needless to say, rainfall totals have been
nudged upward from previous forecast. Rainfall amounts Tuesday
afternoon through Thursday: up to 2.5-3.5" N Bay Mountains, N Bay
Valleys 1.5-2.0", SF, E Bay and S Bay 0.25-0.75", elsewhere less
than 0.25".

.LONG TERM (THU NIGHT-MON)...18/830 PM.

The amount of momentum transfer occuring between the Western and
Eastern PAC will continue to increase over the next few days.
Both the GFS and EC deterministic runs pick up on this ocean-wide
shift in recent trends, where the usual mid-ocean ridge that sits
north of the Hawaiian Islands has lost some of its intensity. In
its wake, have observed greater 200mb streaming of flow from the
Sea of Japan over to the Central PAC. In doing so, that wave
energy has greatly amplified the depth of some of the troughs that
have developed over the Gulf of Alaska. This is where the Parade
of Storms comes into play: as more energy is able to transfer
across the PAC, will also see deeper troughs over our neck of the
woods. Moreover, these deeper troughs will be able to host greater
zones of PVA, along with the advection of moisture from the
Central PAC over to the California Coast. The latest multi-model
ensembles have picked up on the shift over the past few days and
continue to trend towards waves of greater PWAT concentrations
latching on the coast (1.3-1.6 inches) Thursday into Friday, along
with another potential round during the weekend. Latest IVT values
on the EC and GFS out to this period remain well over 250, with
values by the weekend and into early next week approaching 700+ kg
m-1 s-1 at times along the coast. All of this is to say that the
early indications for this time-frame are that a late weekend
system will have the most available moisture from an AR
perspective. Will be monitoring for any changes in ensemble and
deterministic trends with regards to this moisture tongue, but
current consensus is that this event has the potential to be the
largest float out of the parade of storms that we expect to move
over the region this week. In terms of potential totals, for the
Bay Area: N Bay 5-8", SF, E and S Bay 1-3", Santa Cruz Mts 3-5",
and areas southward 0.5-1.5". Be advised that these values are
subject to change owing to the large uncertainties between now and
the weekend. As the previous forecaster had described it, this
setup  could stick a fork in fire weather concerns for most of
the forecast area, save for the Central Coast.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 10:29 PM PDT Monday...For the 06z TAFs. VFR
conditions prevailing through the period for most sites. Slight
chance for fog to develop again late tonight/early Tuesday morning
in the North Bay Valleys and around the Monterey Bay. Generally
light winds overnight. Another cold front approaches the region
tomorrow. This will result in southerly winds developing starting
tomorrow afternoon. Models and guidance show gusty conditions in
starting in the early evening with gusts around 20-25 kt, locally
higher possible. Showers and lowering cigs will start to arrive
towards the end of the taf period from north to south.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR will prevail through the period. Winds will
be light tonight. S/SE winds will increase to 10kts after 21Z, as
our next system approaches the area. Models and guidance show
stronger southerly wind gusts possible Tuesday evening and
overnight.

KSFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay...VFR conditions could become interrupted by patchy
BR/FG forming around 10Z, but confidence remains low and this was
left out of the tafs. Better confidence in VFR prevailing through
the period. Winds will be light, with SW/S winds forming Tuesday
evening.

&&

.MARINE...as of 08:59 PM PDT Monday...Light to breezy winds into
Tuesday morning. Winds then increase Tuesday night as the next
front moves over the waters, increasing the chances for scattered
showers into Wednesday morning. These winds will shift to the
south and strengthen with gale force gusts possible over the
northern outer waters. These winds will generate steep waves
resulting in hazardous seas conditions, particularly for smaller
vessels. Southerly winds will ease Wednesday and then persist
through much of the forecast period with another chance for rain
on Thursday, as the unsettled weather pattern continues into the
weekend. As weak southerly swell remains embedded in a northwest
swell, the primary swell pivots to more westerly by mid week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: Diaz
AVIATION: AS
MARINE: Dhuyvetter

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