Special Weather Statement, NWS Missoula, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
156 PM MDT Tue Aug 17 2021

.DISCUSSION...A cold front will slowly push across the Northern
Rockies this afternoon and evening. A band of precipitation
associated with the front extends from central Idaho to the
Canadian border. Smoke from regional fires has been pulled up into
the region ahead of the front. This smoke will hinder the
development of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. As the low pressure system settles over the Northern
Rockies, anticipate widespread steady precipitation, particularly
across western Montana this evening and into Wednesday morning.
Areas east of a line from Sandpoint Idaho to McCall Idaho have a
high probability of receiving at least a tenth of an inch of rain
in the next 24 to 30 hours. Western Montana should receive at
least 0.25" to 0.50" of rain with locations along the Continental
Divide getting over an inch of rain by Wednesday afternoon. The
precipitation will become more showery in nature on Wednesday.
Temperatures on Wednesday will be quite cold compared to the last
several days. The valleys of north central Idaho will have maximum
readings in the 60s and 70s, while western Montana will
experience upper 50s and 60s on Wednesday.

A weak ridge of high pressure slides over the Northern Rockies
Thursday into Friday causing warmer and drier conditions. This
will be short-lived as another low pressure system impacts the
region this weekend. This system should bring another round of
widespread precipitation, but does not appear to be as cold.
Finally a third low pressure system is anticipated to track along
the Canadian border on late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...Increased north and northwest winds will continue to
be observed due to a tightening pressure gradient ahead of
today’s fronts. A narrow band of rain associated with a slow
moving cold front extends from north-central Idaho through
northwest Montana. Moderate rain, reduced visibility, and lowered
ceilings will be common under the precipitation band as it
transitions southeastward. Convection allowing models show
thunderstorms developing ahead of the front from Lemhi County
Idaho through southwest Montana during this afternoon.
Thunderstorms will again develop between KSMN and KBTM during the
evening as the front passes. Moisture will wrap into west-central
Montana overnight causing lowered ceilings and continued rain.
Winds will also shift northerly and easterly as low pressure
passes to the south.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening East Beaverhead.

ID...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Missoula MT
255 PM MDT Tue Aug 17 2021

MTZ007-172145-
Butte/Blackfoot Region MT-
255 PM MDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Deer Lodge,
Silver Bow and south central Powell Counties through 345 PM MDT...

At 253 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Warm Springs, or 14 miles south of Deer Lodge, moving northeast at 65
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Butte, KBTM, Anaconda, Silver Bow, Walkerville, Warm Springs, Galen,
Gregson Hot Springs, Divide, West Valley, Nissler, Crackerville,
Racetrack, Lost Creek, Opportunity, Ramsay, Janney and Newcomb.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4574 11246 4576 11250 4569 11255 4563 11268
      4576 11277 4581 11300 4593 11321 4632 11291
      4636 11255 4627 11256 4624 11260 4618 11257
      4618 11251 4614 11252 4609 11247 4605 11248
      4589 11240 4585 11243 4576 11220 4575 11219
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 218DEG 56KT 4619 11267

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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