Fire Weather Watch 2, NWS Missoula, MT

913 
WWUS85 KMSO 102009
RFWMSO

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Missoula MT
209 PM MDT Sat Jul 10 2021

MTZ106-108>111-120300-
/O.UPG.KMSO.FW.A.0002.210711T1800Z-210712T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KMSO.FW.W.0006.210711T1800Z-210712T0300Z/
West Lolo-East Lolo-Bitterroot-Deerlodge/West Beaverhead-
East Beaverhead-
209 PM MDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY...

The Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect. 

* Affected area: Fire Zone 106 (West Lolo). Fire Zone 108 (East 
  Lolo). Fire Zone 109 (Bitterroot). Fire Zone 110 
  (Deerlodge/West Beaverhead). Fire Zone 111 (East Beaverhead). 

* Impacts: The combination of gusty winds and low humidity will 
  produce critical fire weather conditions. 

* Winds: Sustained out of the west at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 
  35 mph. 

* Minimum humidities: 8 to 15 percent.

&&

$$

MTZ107-120300-
/O.NEW.KMSO.FW.W.0006.210711T1800Z-210712T0300Z/
Salish and Kootenai Reservation-
209 PM MDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY...

* Impacts: The combination of gusty winds and low humidity will 
  produce critical fire weather conditions. 

* Winds: Sustained out of the west at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 
  35 mph. 

* Minimum humidities: 8 to 15 percent.




&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
257 AM MDT Fri Jul 9 2021

.DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough is moving across Washington this
morning towards the Northern Rockies. Showers and a chance for
thunderstorms will develop along this wave as it traverses west-
central and northwest Montana. Moisture appears to be a limiting
factor with this system, as well as the timing, as a stable
morning atmosphere should limit thunder to isolated storms from
about Highway 12 north into Kalispell and Glacier Park and along
the Continental Divide. The wave should be east of the Divide by
mid afternoon. Meanwhile this morning, haze from wildfire smoke
will cause a decrease in visibility across west-central and
southwest Montana.

As the shortwave pushes east, a ridge of high pressure rebuilds
over western Montana, shifting flow aloft to the northwest.
Northwesterly flow aloft will push smoke back to the south,
resulting in lifting haze by later this afternoon. Of course, the
building ridge will bring hot, dry weather for the weekend. As a
closed high forms over the desert southwest, the ridge axis will
set up over western Montana by Saturday morning. Temperatures
bounce back to the mid to upper 90s for many Montana valleys, and
triple digits for the lower elevation valleys in north-central
Idaho. The building ridge will allow for more smoke to enter the
region this weekend, creating somewhat of a forecast challenge for
high temperatures. Although model guidance still likes it hot,
obscured skies from smoke may limit daytime heating. This weekend
will also bring very low relative humidity, with low teens being
the norm and single digits not out of the question. The hot and
very dry conditions will be accompanied by increased winds on
Sunday as the upper level ridge begins to break down and a jet
streak aloft situates itself over the northwestern U.S., including
Montana and the Idaho panhandle.

Looking out past this weekend, as flow aloft flattens and becomes
mostly westerly, temperatures relax slightly. Precipitation is
still looking scarce, although some model solutions are hinting at
a shortwave disturbance by midweek. Confidence is low at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...KGPI and KMSO will see a chance for a rain shower
early this morning as a shortwave trough approaches west-central
and northwest Montana. Isolated thunder will be a possibility
with this wave until about 09/1500z. Smoke will be present across
much of the Northern Rockies this morning. Confidence is low that
visibility will drop below VFR due to the smoke, though.
Visibility will improve by this afternoon as upper level flow
shifts to the northwest.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&