Special Weather Statement, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
131 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Morning update hasn't changed much in the actual forecast, but
unfortunately forecast certainty isn't very high either.
Convective Allowing Models are all over the place with some saying
there will be virtually no convection the rest of the day, and
others trying to blow up convection across the entire area in the
next couple of hours. Based on 12z soundings and current
radar, think that there should be some convection later this
morning/afternoon. Storms are trying to fire already, but think
the inversion is keeping them capped off this morning. But with
mostly sunny skies expected we should eventually overcome the
inversion and expect convection to eventually be able to get
going, especially along the mountains and plateau. Think that
if/when storms are able to get going they should mostly be typical
summertime thunderstorms, but there is enough instability and a
weak shear that some of them could become strong to severe later
today. Best chances look to again be across the northern
Cumberland Plateau and up into KY for the strongest storms.
Again, forecast certainty is low because the atmosphere is primed
to see convection, but there's not a lot of great synoptic level
lift out there. But if a few larger storms are able to fire off
then the outflows they create could trigger a domino effect
causing us to see more widespread storms.

ABM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Another afternoon of showers and thunderstorms is expected across
the area. In the TAFs have highlighted the time frame of the
greatest coverage of storms with a TEMPO group. It's still
possible to see a storm outside of the TEMPO hours, but chances
should be much lower once the sun begins to set. Expect some more
fog in the morning with KTYS/KTRI having the highest chance of
fog. Not a lot of certainty on how dense the fog may end up being,
but will wait to see where rain occurs which should give a better
understanding for fog potential.

ABM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             74  92  73  93  73 /  30  30  20  50  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  73  92  73  93  73 /  20  40  20  50  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       71  91  72  92  72 /  20  30  20  50  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              69  88  69  90  69 /  30  50  20  50  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
313 AM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-110715-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-
Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-
Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-Southeast Greene-
Washington-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-
Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-Blount Smoky Mountains-
North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-
McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-
West Polk-East Polk-Lee-Wise-Russell-
313 AM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021 /213 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast today.
Some of these storms could be strong to possibly severe with
damaging winds, cloud to ground lightning, and brief heavy
rainfall being the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not needed at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1256 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

TNZ012-013-101745-
Scott TN-Campbell TN-
1256 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Campbell and northeastern Scott Counties through 145 PM EDT...

At 1255 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Huntsville, or near Oneida, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Oneida, Huntsville, Helenwood, Jellico, Caryville, Winfield, Elk
Valley, Ketchen, Royal Blue and Norma.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3659 8414 3628 8424 3637 8460 3660 8454
TIME...MOT...LOC 1655Z 274DEG 16KT 3644 8450

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Diegan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
104 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

TNZ074-101745-
Sevier Smoky Mountains TN-
104 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Sevier
County through 145 PM EDT...

At 104 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Gatlinburg, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gatlinburg, Smoky Mountains-Newfound Gap, Pittman Center, Elkmont and
Great Smoky Mountains National Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3560 8360 3571 8358 3575 8346 3577 8329
      3566 8331 3566 8335 3564 8337 3561 8342
      3561 8344 3560 8346
TIME...MOT...LOC 1704Z 274DEG 16KT 3569 8347

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Diegan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
143 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

TNZ012-101830-
Scott TN-
143 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Scott County
through 230 PM EDT...

At 142 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Huntsville, or 9 miles south of Oneida, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Huntsville, Helenwood, Norma, Robbins and Smokey Junction.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 8435 3645 8434 3642 8435 3639 8431
      3638 8432 3639 8433 3631 8433 3628 8434
      3626 8438 3625 8438 3636 8462 3647 8457
TIME...MOT...LOC 1742Z 284DEG 12KT 3639 8454

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Diegan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
143 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

TNZ081-098-099-101830-
Sequatchie TN-Marion TN-Hamilton TN-
143 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Sequatchie,
northeastern Marion and west central Hamilton Counties through 230 PM
EDT/130 PM CDT/...

At 142 PM EDT/1242 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Tracy City, or 11 miles north of Jasper, moving
east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chattanooga, Dunlap, Signal Mountain, Walden, Whitwell, Fairmount,
Red Bank, Powells Crossroads, Martin Springs and Cartwright.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3524 8569 3529 8571 3529 8569 3531 8565
      3530 8563 3532 8556 3534 8554 3536 8551
      3541 8549 3541 8551 3547 8538 3543 8533
      3514 8525 3511 8568 3522 8573
TIME...MOT...LOC 1742Z 248DEG 14KT 3523 8564

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>