Special Weather Statement, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
311 AM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...

Key Messages:

1) Strong storms across southeast TN very early this morning,
with lingering showers possible into the late morning hours.

2) Possible second round of isolated convection in southeast TN and
southwest VA in the afternoon.

Discussion:

Remnants of a MCS are still making their way through TN/AL/GA very
early this morning. Expect thunderstorm activity to linger into the
very early morning hours, but should diminish in coverage and
intensity as we get closer to sunrise. Environment is supportive to
see isolated strong straight-line winds and we could see some
possible flooding if storms train over the same area. Again, expect
most of this strong activity to diminish overnight, but some of the
showers (and possibly a thunderstorm) may be present to around
sunrise.

After this early morning activity decreases expect max temperatures
to be near or just below normal with increased cloud coverage during
the daylight hours. We could see some redevelopment of shower and
thunderstorm activity in southeast TN and southwest NC in the early
afternoon hours as an upper level jet moves in to provide lift
across the area, and with the front still lingering just south of
the area it could help spark some showers and thunderstorms. Some of
the storms could possibly become strong, but think the better
organized storms will remain to our south... But with how poorly the
high resolution Convective Allowing Models (CAMs) have performed
over the past few days it's worth keeping an eye on the southern TN
valley this afternoon.

ABM

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)...

Key Messages:

1. Near to below normal temperatures expected Monday through
Thursday with chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly confined
to far eastern portions of the forecast area.

2. Slight warming trend Friday and Saturday with temperatures back
to near normal.

Discussion:

No major changes to the forecast as mid level troughing and mild
temperatures, along with several chances for showers and
thunderstorms, are expected in the long term portion of the
forecast. To kick things off we'll be sitting under mid level
ridging deepening from the north and high pressure is in place at
the surface. We'll be sitting at the bottom of this trough through
much of this upcoming work week with shower and thunderstorm chances
likely around the periphery of this trough generally closer to the
coasts. Generally the best chance to see showers and thunderstorms
this upcoming week will be along and near the southern Appalachian
Mountains as a couple of low pressure systems ride of the front that
will be stalled out near the eastern coast of the US. Forecast
models currently paint late Tuesday through Thursday as the time
frame for the strongest of these lows and therefore the greatest
chance to see precipitation further west of the mountains.

Warming trend will begin on Friday with more southerly low level
flow being introduced as a ridge starts to build in from the west.
This will cause temperatures to rise back into the 90's in the
Valley and expect precipitation chances to really decrease as we
head into the weekend.

ABM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Remnants of an MCS moving through eastern TN for the first portion
of these TAFs. This could cause severe thunderstorms around KCHA
between 05z-08z. Expect weaker showers and thunderstorms to impact
KTYS overnight, and possibly a few isolated showers near KTRI.
This rain could create fog later in the night, but will have to
wait and see how much and where the rain falls. Expect conditions
to slowly improve tomorrow and eventually reach VFR.

ABM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             87  68  85  66  87 /  50  20  10  10  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  84  65  86  65  85 /  40  10  10  10  30
Oak Ridge, TN                       84  64  84  64  85 /  40  10  10  10  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              82  60  83  62  80 /  40  10  10  20  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1238 AM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-010915-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-
Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-
Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-Southeast Greene-
Washington-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-
Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-Blount Smoky Mountains-
North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-
McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-
West Polk-East Polk-Lee-Wise-Russell-
1238 AM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021 /1138 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Strong to severe storms will be possible in southeast Tennessee
late Saturday night into very early Sunday morning. Strong
straight line winds will be the main hazard with these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not needed at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
130 AM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

TNZ082>084-010600-
Rhea TN-Bledsoe TN-Meigs TN-
130 AM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RHEA...CENTRAL BLEDSOE AND MEIGS
COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM EDT/100 AM CDT/...

At 129 AM EDT/1229 AM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Dayton, moving east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dayton, Decatur, Graysville, Evensville, Peakland, Old Washington,
Ten Mile and Big Spring.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM EDT/300 AM
CDT/ for east Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3547 8516 3566 8514 3567 8463 3549 8476
      3545 8481 3535 8486
TIME...MOT...LOC 0529Z 274DEG 29KT 3557 8506

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
140 AM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

TNZ067-068-071-084>086-010630-
Northwest Monroe TN-Roane TN-Loudon TN-NW Blount TN-Meigs TN-
McMinn TN-
140 AM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LOUDON...NORTHEASTERN
MEIGS...NORTHEASTERN MCMINN...SOUTHWESTERN BLOUNT...NORTHWESTERN
MONROE AND SOUTHWESTERN ROANE COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM EDT...

At 139 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Fairview, or 9 miles northwest of Sweetwater, moving
east at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sweetwater, Loudon, Madisonville, Vonore, Greenback, Niota,
Philadelphia, Paint Rock, Fort Loudon State Park and Tariffville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM EDT for
portions of southeast Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3561 8474 3579 8467 3569 8398 3544 8414
      3537 8422
TIME...MOT...LOC 0539Z 288DEG 34KT 3568 8462

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
206 AM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

TNZ081>085-099-100-010645-
Sequatchie TN-Rhea TN-Bledsoe TN-Bradley TN-Hamilton TN-Meigs TN-
McMinn TN-
206 AM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN RHEA...BRADLEY...
SOUTHEASTERN SEQUATCHIE...CENTRAL BLEDSOE...MEIGS...WESTERN MCMINN
AND HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM EDT/145 AM CDT/...

At 205 AM EDT/105 AM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Pikeville to near
Lookout Mountain. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Chattanooga, Cleveland, Athens, Dayton, Decatur, Soddy-Daisy, Signal
Mountain, Rossville, Walden and Lakesite.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM EDT/300 AM
CDT/ for portions of Southeast Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3498 8547 3499 8546 3501 8542 3504 8541
      3504 8539 3507 8536 3509 8536 3511 8538
      3511 8539 3516 8539 3565 8516 3561 8457
      3499 8488
TIME...MOT...LOC 0605Z 268DEG 36KT 3554 8515 3496 8544

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
324 AM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

NCZ060-061-010830-
Clay NC-Cherokee NC-
324 AM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL
430 AM EDT...

At 324 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Murphy, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Andrews, Murphy, Hayesville, Nantahala Lake, Shooting Creek,
Tusquitee, Topton, Marble and Brasstown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 8422 3526 8408 3529 8403 3524 8401
      3522 8397 3526 8384 3524 8374 3526 8371
      3523 8369 3520 8373 3519 8371 3515 8373
      3516 8365 3514 8366 3513 8362 3504 8356
      3502 8352 3501 8352 3500 8349 3499 8414
TIME...MOT...LOC 0724Z 284DEG 25KT 3517 8402

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
444 AM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

TNZ017-018-046-047-010915-
Sullivan TN-Northwest Carter TN-Southeast Carter TN-Johnson TN-
444 AM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SULLIVAN...JOHNSON
AND EASTERN CARTER COUNTIES UNTIL 515 AM EDT...

At 444 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles south of Abingdon to near Elk Park.
Movement was east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Mountain City, Trade, Doeville, Neva, Laurel Bloomery, Hampton Creek
Cove State Park, Harr, Elk Mills, Shady Valley and Roan Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3653 8171 3647 8170 3646 8171 3642 8172
      3641 8174 3636 8172 3634 8171 3634 8175
      3636 8179 3634 8185 3630 8191 3612 8203
      3612 8205 3611 8206 3660 8201 3659 8194
      3662 8192 3661 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 0844Z 269DEG 23KT 3660 8193 3611 8204