Special Weather Statement, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
349 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Saturday)...

A pre-frontal line of showers and thunderstorms is moving across
northern and western sections of the forecast area at mid
afternoon. Gusty winds to 40 mph and locally heavy rain is falling
in the line with heaviest rainfall over the northern plateau.
Small hail is possible in the storms too. Temperatures are in the
80s out ahead of the line with 85 at Chattanooga to mid 60s to
around 70 in rain cooled areas. Eastern sections of the forecast
area will see the showers and storms in the next few hours. Still
possible that a few storms could produce higher wind gusts and
knock some trees down. Later this evening more showers are
possible ahead of cold front now moving across western Tennessee.
This activity should be lighter than the current activity.
Adjusted forecast to lower rain chances after 06Z Saturday. Lows
tonight will be much colder than the last several days mostly 50s.
Saturday behind cold front deep upper trough settles over the
eastern states with shortwave energy rotating across the region.
Clouds will be slow to clear with a chance of showers. Highest
chances across the northeast part of the region. Temperatures will
be about 15 degrees cooler...in the mid 60s to near 70.

TD

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)...

Key Messages:

1. Light and lingering rain showers Saturday night into Sunday
morning across northeast TN and southwest VA, drier Sunday through
Tuesday.

2. Moisture and temperatures will gradually rebound mid-week through
the end of the week along with increasing chances of precipitation.

Upper trough will be pulling out of the area Saturday night.
There may be a few light, lingering, showers early Saturday
evening into Sunday morning across northeast TN and SWVA.
Overnight lows will range from the upper 40s to near 50. On
Sunday, clouds may linger across northeast TN and SWVA in the
morning before clearing out late afternoon as northwest flow helps
to bring drier air into the region. Most other areas should see
plenty of sun. Highs will top out in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Northwest flow transitions to zonal flow on Monday but with dry
air remaining. The rising heights will allow temperatures to be
warmer with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Both temperatures and moisture climb on Tuesday as a high pressure
to our east provides southwesterly flow across our area. Most areas
will stay dry but will have a slight chance POP in for the eastern
mountains.

Our best chances for precip look to occur on Wednesday and Thursday
though there are model differences. On Wednesday, a shortwave will
move out of the Great Plains and toward our area. On Thursday, the
GFS shows this shortwave moving up through the Ohio River Valley and
getting absorbed into a long wave trough as it's swinging through
the Great Lakes Region. However, the ECMWF shows the shortwave
becoming cutoff and forming a closed low. We should get rain/storms
regardless of how this plays out. The main difference will be
timing. With the GFS, precip chances would linger through Friday as
the trough will be a slow mover due to a Bermuda high in place to
the east. The ECMWF would keep precip going [past the extended
forecast due to the cutoff low. Temps Wednesday through Friday will
be in the low 80s for highs and 60s for lows.

SR

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Ceilings will drop to MVFR because of thunderstorms this
afternoon temporarily and gusty winds from the southwest will
continue through early evening with gusts up to around 25 knots.
Lower clouds and showers may reform ahead of the cold front by
late evening. MVFR ceilings to linger late tonight and slowly
improve by late morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             57  70  51  76  53 /  40  10   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  57  66  51  70  50 /  70  20  10  10   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       56  66  48  71  49 /  70  10  10  10   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              58  67  50  66  47 /  90  20  20  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
323 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-291930-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-
Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-
Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-Southeast Greene-
Washington-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-
Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-Blount Smoky Mountains-
North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-
McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-
West Polk-East Polk-Lee-Wise-Russell-
323 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021 /223 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will move across the region through
early this evening. An isolated storm could be severe late this
afternoon into the evening producing localized damaging winds up
to 60 mph and hail up to quarter size. The thunderstorms will
also produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause ponding in
low-lying or poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not needed at this time.

TD/SR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
540 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021

NCZ060-TNZ085>087-101-102-282245-
Cherokee NC-West Polk TN-Northwest Monroe TN-East Polk TN-
Southeast Monroe TN-McMinn TN-
540 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CHEROKEE...POLK...
SOUTHEASTERN MCMINN AND SOUTHERN MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 540 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Etowah to near Benton to 10 miles
southeast of Wildwood Lake. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Benton, Ducktown, Etowah, Englewood, Tellico Plains, William L.
Davenport Refuge, Coker Creek, Conasauga, Violet and Big Frog
Mountain.

LAT...LON 3499 8477 3543 8450 3549 8394 3541 8402
      3537 8401 3535 8404 3531 8404 3527 8401
      3499 8422
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 262DEG 30KT 3538 8448 3517 8461 3502 8469

JLB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
558 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021

TNZ016-017-042-044>047-VAZ005-008-282300-
Sullivan TN-Washington TN-Northwest Greene TN-Northwest Carter TN-
Southeast Carter TN-Unicoi TN-Hawkins TN-Washington VA-Scott VA-
558 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SULLIVAN...NORTHEASTERN
HAWKINS...WASHINGTON...EASTERN GREENE...NORTHERN UNICOI...WESTERN
CARTER...SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT AND SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES AND
THE CITY OF BRISTOL UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 557 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Gate City to 11 miles
southeast of Surgoinsville to near Tusculum to 6 miles east of
Parrottsville. Movement was east at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Johnson City, Kingsport, Bristol Tn, Bristol Va, Greeneville,
Elizabethton, Erwin, Gate City, Jonesborough and Tusculum.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3615 8220 3616 8222 3613 8225 3609 8259
      3603 8293 3600 8296 3603 8300 3604 8301
      3619 8282 3635 8277 3664 8276 3674 8234
      3672 8233 3671 8233 3676 8224 3680 8205
      3650 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 252DEG 42KT 3660 8269 3638 8270 3622 8274 3604
8298

JLB

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