Alert archive / Tennessee / Flash Flood Watches in 2021

Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Morristown, TN

March 26, 202133 counties in Tennessee; Cherokee County, Clay County, North Carolina; 7 counties in Virginia

NWS Morristown, TN issued this flash flood watch at Mar 26, 2021, 7:10 PM EDT for 33 counties in Tennessee; Cherokee County, Clay County, North Carolina; 7 counties in Virginia. It took effect at Mar 27, 2021, 8:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 31 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Mar 26, 2021, 7:10 PM EDT (23:10 UTC)
In effect from
Mar 27, 2021, 8:00 AM EDT
Expired
Mar 28, 2021, 3:06 PM EDT
In force
31 hr
Issued by
NWS Morristown, TN
Flood severity
None
All 42 counties

Cherokee County, NC, Clay County, NC, Anderson County, TN, Bledsoe County, TN, Blount County, TN, Bradley County, TN, Campbell County, TN, Carter County, TN, Claiborne County, TN, Cocke County, TN, Grainger County, TN, Greene County, TN, Hamblen County, TN, Hamilton County, TN, Hancock County, TN, Hawkins County, TN, Jefferson County, TN, Johnson County, TN, Knox County, TN, Loudon County, TN, Marion County, TN, McMinn County, TN, Meigs County, TN, Monroe County, TN, Morgan County, TN, Polk County, TN, Rhea County, TN, Roane County, TN, Scott County, TN, Sequatchie County, TN, Sevier County, TN, Sullivan County, TN, Unicoi County, TN, Union County, TN, Washington County, TN, City of Bristol, VA, City of Norton, VA, Lee County, VA, Russell County, VA, Scott County, VA, Washington County, VA, Wise County, VA

The radar

The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 27 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 11.2 hours before the alert went out and 265 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2021-03-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2021-03-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 7 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
950 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
77 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
7 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
56 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

419 
WGUS64 KMRX 262310
FFAMRX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Morristown TN
710 PM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

TNZ012>016-035>043-067>074-081>087-098>102-270715-
/O.NEW.KMRX.FF.A.0003.210327T1200Z-210329T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Scott-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Morgan-Anderson-Union-
Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest
Greene-Southeast Greene-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest
Blount-Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Southeast
Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-
Including the cities of Paulette, White Pine, Howard Quarter,
Rockwood, Reliance, Dentville, Morristown, Dunlap, Cades Cove,
Norris Lake, Sweetwater, Greeneville, Cagle, Harrogate-Shawanee,
Oneida, Royal Blue, Parksville, Newport, Haletown (Guild), Big
Spring, Kyles Ford, Whitwell, Happy Valley, Spring City, Old
Cumberland, Cartwright, Old Washington, Elk Valley, White Oak,
Clairfield, Turtletown, Knoxville, Evanston, Pigeon Forge,
Strawberry Plains, Fincastle, Tasso, Sandlick, Jasper, Clear
Water, Alcoa, Arthur, High Point, Pikeville, Coker Creek,
Clinton, Rose Hill, Jellico, Seymour, Sneedville, Archville,
Sharps Chapel, Eagle Furnace, Madisonville, Russellville,
Harriman, Bybee, Gatlinburg, Conasauga, Monteagle, Elkmont,
Chestnut Hill, Dayton, Norma, Bean Station, Brayton, Petros, Big
South Fork National, Maryville, Pine Orchard, Kodak, Melvine,
Grandview, Etowah, Elgin, Powells Crossroads, Big Frog Mountain,
Oak Ridge, Caryville, Cleveland, Ducktown, Martin Springs, Slick
Rock, La Follette, Springdale, Bullet Creek, Athens, Citico,
South Pittsburg, Loudon, Maynardville, Huntsville, Bradbury,
Luttrell, Harrisburg, Hartford, Fairview, Palio, Mooresburg,
Alpha, Treadway, Evensville, Chattanooga, Smokey Junction,
McMahan, Oliver Springs, Benton, Cedar Creek, Mount Crest, Lake
Forest, Lone Mountain, Sevierville, Lone Oak, Lenoir City,
Jefferson City, Dandridge, Kingston, and Bearden
710 PM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 /610 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY 
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for A portion of east Tennessee, including the 
  following areas, Anderson, Bledsoe, Blount Smoky Mountains, 
  Bradley, Campbell, Claiborne, Cocke Smoky Mountains, East Polk, 
  Grainger, Hamblen, Hamilton, Hancock, Hawkins, Jefferson, Knox, 
  Loudon, Marion, McMinn, Meigs, Morgan, North Sevier, Northwest 
  Blount, Northwest Cocke, Northwest Greene, Northwest Monroe, Rhea, 
  Roane, Scott, Sequatchie, Sevier Smoky Mountains, Southeast 
  Greene, Southeast Monroe, Union and West Polk.

* From Saturday morning through Sunday evening.

* Areas of heavy rainfall is expected Saturday morning and afternoon 
  as a warm front lifts north through the Tennessee Valley. With 
  recent heavy rainfall, the ground is already saturated and 
  additional heavy rainfall will cause excess runoff and localized 
  flash flooding. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are expected 
  with localized higher amounts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

Diegan
7 follow-up statements
250 
WGUS64 KMRX 270747 AAA
FFAMRX

Flood Watch...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
347 AM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021


TNZ012>016-035>043-067>074-081>087-098>102-272000-
/O.CON.KMRX.FF.A.0003.210327T1200Z-210329T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Scott-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Morgan-Anderson-Union-
Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-
Northwest Greene-Southeast Greene-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-
Northwest Blount-Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-
Sevier Smoky Mountains-Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-
Northwest Monroe-Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-
West Polk-East Polk-
Including the cities of Big South Fork National, Oneida, 
Smokey Junction, Elgin, Huntsville, Norma, Slick Rock, Fincastle,
La Follette, Elk Valley, Jellico, White Oak, Caryville, 
Royal Blue, Lone Mountain, Sandlick, Springdale, Arthur, 
Harrogate-Shawanee, Clairfield, Howard Quarter, Evanston, 
Sneedville, Treadway, Kyles Ford, Mooresburg, Pine Orchard, 
High Point, Petros, Oak Ridge, Clinton, Maynardville, 
Norris Lake, Paulette, Rose Hill, Sharps Chapel, Luttrell, 
Bean Station, Alpha, Morristown, Russellville, Bybee, Newport, 
Hartford, Greeneville, Cedar Creek, Harriman, Eagle Furnace, 
Rockwood, Bradbury, Fairview, Kingston, Oliver Springs, 
Lenoir City, Loudon, Bearden, Knoxville, Lake Forest, 
Jefferson City, Strawberry Plains, Chestnut Hill, Dandridge, 
White Pine, Happy Valley, Maryville, Alcoa, Cades Cove, 
Harrisburg, Kodak, McMahan, Sevierville, Seymour, Pigeon Forge, 
Elkmont, Gatlinburg, Cagle, Dunlap, Cartwright, Lone Oak, 
Old Cumberland, Palio, Melvine, Mount Crest, Pikeville, Brayton, 
Dayton, Evensville, Old Washington, Grandview, Spring City, 
Big Spring, Athens, Clear Water, Dentville, Etowah, Sweetwater, 
Madisonville, Bullet Creek, Citico, Coker Creek, South Pittsburg,
Haletown (Guild), Jasper, Martin Springs, Whitwell, 
Powells Crossroads, Monteagle, Chattanooga, Cleveland, Tasso, 
Conasauga, Archville, Benton, Parksville, Reliance, 
Big Frog Mountain, Ducktown, and Turtletown
347 AM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 /247 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/
THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of east Tennessee, including the following areas, 
  Anderson, Bledsoe, Blount Smoky Mountains, Bradley, Campbell, 
  Claiborne, Cocke Smoky Mountains, East Polk, Grainger, 
  Hamblen, Hamilton, Hancock, Hawkins, Jefferson, Knox, Loudon, 
  Marion, McMinn, Meigs, Morgan, North Sevier, Northwest Blount, 
  Northwest Cocke, Northwest Greene, Northwest Monroe, Rhea, 
  Roane, Scott, Sequatchie, Sevier Smoky Mountains, Southeast 
  Greene, Southeast Monroe, Union, and West Polk. 

* From 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning through Sunday evening

* Areas of heavy rainfall are expected this morning and afternoon
  as a warm front lifts north near the Tennessee Valley. Another
  round of heavy rainfall is expected on Sunday morning. With 
  recent heavy rainfall, the ground is already saturated and 
  additional heavy rainfall will cause excess runoff and localized
  flash flooding. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are expected 
  with localized higher amounts. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most
flood deaths occur in vehicles.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
670 
WGUS64 KMRX 271615
FFAMRX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1215 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021

TNZ017-018-044>047-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-280500-
/O.EXA.KMRX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210329T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Sullivan-Johnson-Washington-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast
Carter-Lee-Wise-Scott-Russell-Washington-
Including the cities of Bristol TN, Bristol VA, Big Stone Gap,
Lebanon, Appalachia, Doeville, Pardee, Honaker, Norton, Shady
Valley, Elizabethton, Hiltons, Johnson City, Mountain City, Dye,
Wise, Abingdon, Erwin, Rosedale, Unicoi, Castlewood, Laurel
Bloomery, Hampton, Limestone Cove, Rose Hill, Kingsport, Trade,
Neva, Benhams, South Holston Dam, Hansonville, and Coeburn
1215 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Morristown has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include Portions of east Tennessee, including 
  the following areas, Johnson, Northwest Carter, Southeast Carter, 
  Sullivan, Unicoi and Washington. Portions of southwest Virginia, 
  including the following areas, Lee, Russell, Scott, Washington and 
  Wise.

* Through Sunday evening.

* Areas of heavy rainfall is expected to continue today as a warm 
  front lifts north through northeast Tennessee and southwest 
  Virginia. With recent heavy rainfall, the ground is already 
  saturated and additional heavy rainfall will cause excess runoff 
  and localized flash flooding. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches 
  are expected with localized higher amounts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Do not enter or cross flowing water or water of unknown depth.

&&

$$

TNZ012>016-035>043-067>074-081>087-098>102-280500-
/O.CON.KMRX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210329T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Scott-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Morgan-Anderson-Union-
Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest
Greene-Southeast Greene-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest
Blount-Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Southeast
Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-
Including the cities of Paulette, White Pine, Howard Quarter,
Rockwood, Reliance, Dentville, Morristown, Dunlap, Cades Cove,
Norris Lake, Sweetwater, Greeneville, Cagle, Harrogate-Shawanee,
Oneida, Royal Blue, Parksville, Newport, Haletown (Guild), Big
Spring, Kyles Ford, Whitwell, Happy Valley, Spring City, Old
Cumberland, Cartwright, Old Washington, Elk Valley, White Oak,
Clairfield, Turtletown, Knoxville, Evanston, Pigeon Forge,
Strawberry Plains, Fincastle, Tasso, Sandlick, Jasper, Clear
Water, Alcoa, Arthur, High Point, Pikeville, Coker Creek,
Clinton, Rose Hill, Jellico, Seymour, Sneedville, Archville,
Sharps Chapel, Eagle Furnace, Madisonville, Russellville,
Harriman, Bybee, Gatlinburg, Conasauga, Monteagle, Elkmont,
Chestnut Hill, Dayton, Norma, Bean Station, Brayton, Petros, Big
South Fork National, Maryville, Pine Orchard, Kodak, Melvine,
Grandview, Etowah, Elgin, Powells Crossroads, Big Frog Mountain,
Oak Ridge, Caryville, Cleveland, Ducktown, Martin Springs, Slick
Rock, La Follette, Springdale, Bullet Creek, Athens, Citico,
South Pittsburg, Loudon, Maynardville, Huntsville, Bradbury,
Luttrell, Harrisburg, Hartford, Fairview, Palio, Mooresburg,
Alpha, Treadway, Evensville, Chattanooga, Smokey Junction,
McMahan, Oliver Springs, Benton, Cedar Creek, Mount Crest, Lake
Forest, Lone Mountain, Sevierville, Lone Oak, Lenoir City,
Jefferson City, Dandridge, Kingston, and Bearden
1215 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 /1115 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of east Tennessee, including the following areas, 
  Anderson, Bledsoe, Blount Smoky Mountains, Bradley, Campbell, 
  Claiborne, Cocke Smoky Mountains, East Polk, Grainger, Hamblen, 
  Hamilton, Hancock, Hawkins, Jefferson, Knox, Loudon, Marion, 
  McMinn, Meigs, Morgan, North Sevier, Northwest Blount, Northwest 
  Cocke, Northwest Greene, Northwest Monroe, Rhea, Roane, Scott, 
  Sequatchie, Sevier Smoky Mountains, Southeast Greene, Southeast 
  Monroe, Union and West Polk.

* Through Sunday evening.

* Areas of heavy rainfall is expected to continue today as a warm 
  front lifts north through the Tennessee Valley. With recent heavy 
  rainfall, the ground is already saturated and additional heavy 
  rainfall will cause excess runoff and localized flash flooding. 
  Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are expected with localized 
  higher amounts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

19
667 
WGUS64 KMRX 271904
FFAMRX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Morristown TN
304 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021

NCZ060-061-280600-
/O.EXA.KMRX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210329T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cherokee-Clay-
Including the cities of Brasstown, Hiawasse Dam, Murphy, Topton,
Unaka, Andrews, Violet, Shooting Creek, Tusquitee, Hayesville,
and Marble
304 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Morristown has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include A portion of southwest North 
  Carolina, including the following areas, Cherokee and Clay.

* Through Sunday evening.

* Areas of heavy rainfall is expected to continue today across the 
  area. With recent heavy rainfall, the ground is already saturated 
  and additional heavy rainfall will cause excess runoff and 
  localized flash flooding. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are 
  expected with localized higher amounts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

$$

TNZ012>016-035>043-067>074-081>087-098>102-280600-
/O.CON.KMRX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210329T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Scott-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Morgan-Anderson-Union-
Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest
Greene-Southeast Greene-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest
Blount-Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Southeast
Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-
Including the cities of Paulette, White Pine, Howard Quarter,
Rockwood, Reliance, Dentville, Morristown, Dunlap, Cades Cove,
Norris Lake, Sweetwater, Greeneville, Cagle, Harrogate-Shawanee,
Oneida, Royal Blue, Parksville, Newport, Haletown (Guild), Big
Spring, Kyles Ford, Whitwell, Happy Valley, Spring City, Old
Cumberland, Cartwright, Old Washington, Elk Valley, White Oak,
Clairfield, Turtletown, Knoxville, Evanston, Pigeon Forge,
Strawberry Plains, Fincastle, Tasso, Sandlick, Jasper, Clear
Water, Alcoa, Arthur, High Point, Pikeville, Coker Creek,
Clinton, Rose Hill, Jellico, Seymour, Sneedville, Archville,
Sharps Chapel, Eagle Furnace, Madisonville, Russellville,
Harriman, Bybee, Gatlinburg, Conasauga, Monteagle, Elkmont,
Chestnut Hill, Dayton, Norma, Bean Station, Brayton, Petros, Big
South Fork National, Maryville, Pine Orchard, Kodak, Melvine,
Grandview, Etowah, Elgin, Powells Crossroads, Big Frog Mountain,
Oak Ridge, Caryville, Cleveland, Ducktown, Martin Springs, Slick
Rock, La Follette, Springdale, Bullet Creek, Athens, Citico,
South Pittsburg, Loudon, Maynardville, Huntsville, Bradbury,
Luttrell, Harrisburg, Hartford, Fairview, Palio, Mooresburg,
Alpha, Treadway, Evensville, Chattanooga, Smokey Junction,
McMahan, Oliver Springs, Benton, Cedar Creek, Mount Crest, Lake
Forest, Lone Mountain, Sevierville, Lone Oak, Lenoir City,
Jefferson City, Dandridge, Kingston, and Bearden
304 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 /204 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of east Tennessee, including the following areas, 
  Anderson, Bledsoe, Blount Smoky Mountains, Bradley, Campbell, 
  Claiborne, Cocke Smoky Mountains, East Polk, Grainger, Hamblen, 
  Hamilton, Hancock, Hawkins, Jefferson, Knox, Loudon, Marion, 
  McMinn, Meigs, Morgan, North Sevier, Northwest Blount, Northwest 
  Cocke, Northwest Greene, Northwest Monroe, Rhea, Roane, Scott, 
  Sequatchie, Sevier Smoky Mountains, Southeast Greene, Southeast 
  Monroe, Union and West Polk.

* Through Sunday evening.

* Areas of heavy rainfall is expected to continue today across the 
  Tennessee Valley. With recent heavy rainfall, the ground is 
  already saturated and additional heavy rainfall will cause excess 
  runoff and localized flash flooding. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 
  inches are expected with localized higher amounts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

TNZ017-018-044>047-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-280600-
/O.CON.KMRX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210329T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Sullivan-Johnson-Washington-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast
Carter-Lee-Wise-Scott-Russell-Washington-
Including the cities of Bristol TN, Bristol VA, Big Stone Gap,
Lebanon, Appalachia, Doeville, Pardee, Honaker, Norton, Shady
Valley, Elizabethton, Hiltons, Johnson City, Mountain City, Dye,
Wise, Abingdon, Erwin, Rosedale, Unicoi, Castlewood, Laurel
Bloomery, Hampton, Limestone Cove, Rose Hill, Kingsport, Trade,
Neva, Benhams, South Holston Dam, Hansonville, and Coeburn
304 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of east Tennessee, including the following areas, 
  Johnson, Northwest Carter, Southeast Carter, Sullivan, Unicoi and 
  Washington. Portions of southwest Virginia, including the 
  following areas, Lee, Russell, Scott, Washington and Wise.

* Through Sunday evening.

* Areas of heavy rainfall is expected to continue today across 
  northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia. With recent heavy 
  rainfall, the ground is already saturated and additional heavy 
  rainfall will cause excess runoff and localized flash flooding. 
  Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected with localized 
  higher amounts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Do not enter or cross flowing water or water of unknown depth.

&&

$$

19
231 
WGUS64 KMRX 280153
FFAMRX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Morristown TN
953 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021


NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-281000-
/O.CON.KMRX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210329T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cherokee-Clay-Scott-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-
Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-
Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-Southeast Greene-
Washington-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-
Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-Blount Smoky Mountains-
North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-
McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-
West Polk-East Polk-Lee-Wise-Russell-
Including the cities of Andrews, Marble, Topton, Hiawasse Dam, 
Murphy, Unaka, Violet, Shooting Creek, Brasstown, Hayesville, 
Tusquitee, Big South Fork National, Oneida, Smokey Junction, 
Elgin, Huntsville, Norma, Slick Rock, Fincastle, La Follette, 
Elk Valley, Jellico, White Oak, Caryville, Royal Blue, 
Lone Mountain, Sandlick, Springdale, Arthur, Harrogate-Shawanee, 
Clairfield, Howard Quarter, Evanston, Sneedville, Treadway, 
Kyles Ford, Mooresburg, Kingsport, Bristol TN, South Holston Dam,
Doeville, Mountain City, Neva, Shady Valley, Trade, 
Laurel Bloomery, Pine Orchard, High Point, Petros, Oak Ridge, 
Clinton, Maynardville, Norris Lake, Paulette, Rose Hill, 
Sharps Chapel, Luttrell, Bean Station, Alpha, Morristown, 
Russellville, Bybee, Newport, Hartford, Greeneville, Cedar Creek,
Johnson City, Erwin, Unicoi, Limestone Cove, Elizabethton, 
Hampton, Harriman, Eagle Furnace, Rockwood, Bradbury, Fairview, 
Kingston, Oliver Springs, Lenoir City, Loudon, Bearden, 
Knoxville, Lake Forest, Jefferson City, Strawberry Plains, 
Chestnut Hill, Dandridge, White Pine, Happy Valley, Maryville, 
Alcoa, Cades Cove, Harrisburg, Kodak, McMahan, Sevierville, 
Seymour, Pigeon Forge, Elkmont, Gatlinburg, Cagle, Dunlap, 
Cartwright, Lone Oak, Old Cumberland, Palio, Melvine, 
Mount Crest, Pikeville, Brayton, Dayton, Evensville, 
Old Washington, Grandview, Spring City, Big Spring, Athens, 
Clear Water, Dentville, Etowah, Sweetwater, Madisonville, 
Bullet Creek, Citico, Coker Creek, South Pittsburg, 
Haletown (Guild), Jasper, Martin Springs, Whitwell, 
Powells Crossroads, Monteagle, Chattanooga, Cleveland, Tasso, 
Conasauga, Archville, Benton, Parksville, Reliance, 
Big Frog Mountain, Ducktown, Turtletown, Big Stone Gap, Norton, 
Wise, Coeburn, Appalachia, Pardee, Hiltons, Hansonville, Lebanon,
Dye, Castlewood, Honaker, Rosedale, Benhams, Bristol VA, 
and Abingdon
953 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 /853 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southwest North Carolina, east Tennessee, and 
  southwest Virginia, including the following areas, in 
  southwest North Carolina, Cherokee and Clay. In east 
  Tennessee, Anderson, Bledsoe, Blount Smoky Mountains, Bradley, 
  Campbell, Claiborne, Cocke Smoky Mountains, East Polk, 
  Grainger, Hamblen, Hamilton, Hancock, Hawkins, Jefferson, 
  Johnson, Knox, Loudon, Marion, McMinn, Meigs, Morgan, North 
  Sevier, Northwest Blount, Northwest Carter, Northwest Cocke, 
  Northwest Greene, Northwest Monroe, Rhea, Roane, Scott, 
  Sequatchie, Sevier Smoky Mountains, Southeast Carter, 
  Southeast Greene, Southeast Monroe, Sullivan, Unicoi, Union, 
  Washington, and West Polk. In southwest Virginia, Lee, 
  Russell, Scott, Washington, and Wise. 

* Through Sunday evening

* Areas of heavy rainfall are expected to continue tonight across
  the Tennessee Valley. The ground is saturated and additional 
  heavy rainfall will cause excess runoff and localized flash 
  flooding. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected with 
  localized higher amounts. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most
flood deaths occur in vehicles.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
617 
WGUS64 KMRX 280647 AAA
FFAMRX

Flood Watch...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
247 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021


NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-282000-
/O.CON.KMRX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210329T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cherokee-Clay-Scott-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-
Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-
Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-Southeast Greene-
Washington-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-
Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-Blount Smoky Mountains-
North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-
McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-
West Polk-East Polk-Lee-Wise-Russell-
Including the cities of Andrews, Marble, Topton, Hiawasse Dam, 
Murphy, Unaka, Violet, Shooting Creek, Brasstown, Hayesville, 
Tusquitee, Big South Fork National, Oneida, Smokey Junction, 
Elgin, Huntsville, Norma, Slick Rock, Fincastle, La Follette, 
Elk Valley, Jellico, White Oak, Caryville, Royal Blue, 
Lone Mountain, Sandlick, Springdale, Arthur, Harrogate-Shawanee, 
Clairfield, Howard Quarter, Evanston, Sneedville, Treadway, 
Kyles Ford, Mooresburg, Kingsport, Bristol TN, South Holston Dam,
Doeville, Mountain City, Neva, Shady Valley, Trade, 
Laurel Bloomery, Pine Orchard, High Point, Petros, Oak Ridge, 
Clinton, Maynardville, Norris Lake, Paulette, Rose Hill, 
Sharps Chapel, Luttrell, Bean Station, Alpha, Morristown, 
Russellville, Bybee, Newport, Hartford, Greeneville, Cedar Creek,
Johnson City, Erwin, Unicoi, Limestone Cove, Elizabethton, 
Hampton, Harriman, Eagle Furnace, Rockwood, Bradbury, Fairview, 
Kingston, Oliver Springs, Lenoir City, Loudon, Bearden, 
Knoxville, Lake Forest, Jefferson City, Strawberry Plains, 
Chestnut Hill, Dandridge, White Pine, Happy Valley, Maryville, 
Alcoa, Cades Cove, Harrisburg, Kodak, McMahan, Sevierville, 
Seymour, Pigeon Forge, Elkmont, Gatlinburg, Cagle, Dunlap, 
Cartwright, Lone Oak, Old Cumberland, Palio, Melvine, 
Mount Crest, Pikeville, Brayton, Dayton, Evensville, 
Old Washington, Grandview, Spring City, Big Spring, Athens, 
Clear Water, Dentville, Etowah, Sweetwater, Madisonville, 
Bullet Creek, Citico, Coker Creek, South Pittsburg, 
Haletown (Guild), Jasper, Martin Springs, Whitwell, 
Powells Crossroads, Monteagle, Chattanooga, Cleveland, Tasso, 
Conasauga, Archville, Benton, Parksville, Reliance, 
Big Frog Mountain, Ducktown, Turtletown, Big Stone Gap, Norton, 
Wise, Coeburn, Appalachia, Pardee, Hiltons, Hansonville, Lebanon,
Dye, Castlewood, Honaker, Rosedale, Benhams, Bristol VA, 
and Abingdon
247 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 /147 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southwest North Carolina, east Tennessee, and 
  southwest Virginia, including the following areas, in 
  southwest North Carolina, Cherokee and Clay. In east 
  Tennessee, Anderson, Bledsoe, Blount Smoky Mountains, Bradley, 
  Campbell, Claiborne, Cocke Smoky Mountains, East Polk, 
  Grainger, Hamblen, Hamilton, Hancock, Hawkins, Jefferson, 
  Johnson, Knox, Loudon, Marion, McMinn, Meigs, Morgan, North 
  Sevier, Northwest Blount, Northwest Carter, Northwest Cocke, 
  Northwest Greene, Northwest Monroe, Rhea, Roane, Scott, 
  Sequatchie, Sevier Smoky Mountains, Southeast Carter, 
  Southeast Greene, Southeast Monroe, Sullivan, Unicoi, Union, 
  Washington, and West Polk. In southwest Virginia, Lee, 
  Russell, Scott, Washington, and Wise. 

* Through this evening

* Areas of heavy rainfall are expected to continue today across 
  the Tennessee Valley. The ground is saturated and additional 
  heavy rainfall will cause excess runoff and localized flash 
  flooding. Additonal rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are 
  expected with localized higher amounts. 

* Flooding has already been occuring in many locations in the
  Cumberland Plateau and northern Tennessee Valley, and 
  additional rainfall will make this situation worse. Numerous 
  roads will be flooded and impassable. Rivers and creeks will 
  rapidly rise and overflow their banks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most
flood deaths occur in vehicles.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
772 
WGUS64 KMRX 281638
FFAMRX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1238 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

NCZ060-061-TNZ085>087-100>102-281745-
/O.CAN.KMRX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210329T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cherokee-Clay-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Southeast Monroe-Bradley-
West Polk-East Polk-
Including the cities of Bullet Creek, Athens, Topton, Reliance,
Dentville, Conasauga, Shooting Creek, Murphy, Unaka, Andrews,
Tasso, Tusquitee, Citico, Ducktown, Clear Water, Violet, Benton,
Parksville, Etowah, Marble, Coker Creek, Turtletown, Brasstown,
Big Frog Mountain, Sweetwater, Hiawasse Dam, Archville,
Cleveland, Hayesville, and Madisonville
1238 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for Portions of southwest North Carolina, 
including the following areas, Cherokee and Clay. Portions of east 
Tennessee, including the following areas, Bradley, East Polk, 
McMinn, Northwest Monroe, Southeast Monroe and West Polk. has been 
cancelled.

The Flood Watch has been cancelled. Rains have moved out of the 
area.  Any flooding of roads and small creeks should be receding.  
Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

$$

TNZ012>016-035>043-067>074-081>084-098-099-290000-
/O.CON.KMRX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210329T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Scott-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Morgan-Anderson-Union-
Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest
Greene-Southeast Greene-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest
Blount-Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-Marion-Hamilton-
Including the cities of Paulette, White Pine, Howard Quarter,
Rockwood, Morristown, Dunlap, Cades Cove, Norris Lake,
Greeneville, Cagle, Harrogate-Shawanee, Oneida, Royal Blue,
Newport, Haletown (Guild), Big Spring, Kyles Ford, Whitwell,
Happy Valley, Spring City, Old Cumberland, Cartwright, Old
Washington, Elk Valley, White Oak, Clairfield, Knoxville,
Evanston, Pigeon Forge, Strawberry Plains, Fincastle, Sandlick,
Jasper, Alcoa, Arthur, High Point, Pikeville, Clinton, Rose Hill,
Jellico, Seymour, Sneedville, Sharps Chapel, Eagle Furnace,
Russellville, Harriman, Bybee, Gatlinburg, Monteagle, Elkmont,
Chestnut Hill, Dayton, Norma, Bean Station, Brayton, Petros, Big
South Fork National, Maryville, Pine Orchard, Kodak, Melvine,
Grandview, Elgin, Powells Crossroads, Oak Ridge, Caryville,
Martin Springs, Slick Rock, La Follette, Springdale, South
Pittsburg, Loudon, Maynardville, Huntsville, Bradbury, Luttrell,
Harrisburg, Hartford, Fairview, Palio, Mooresburg, Alpha,
Treadway, Evensville, Chattanooga, Smokey Junction, McMahan,
Oliver Springs, Cedar Creek, Mount Crest, Lake Forest, Lone
Mountain, Sevierville, Lone Oak, Lenoir City, Jefferson City,
Dandridge, Kingston, and Bearden
1238 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 /1138 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT/7 PM CDT/ THIS 
EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of east Tennessee, including the following areas, 
  Anderson, Bledsoe, Blount Smoky Mountains, Campbell, Claiborne, 
  Cocke Smoky Mountains, Grainger, Hamblen, Hamilton, Hancock, 
  Hawkins, Jefferson, Knox, Loudon, Marion, Meigs, Morgan, North 
  Sevier, Northwest Blount, Northwest Cocke, Northwest Greene, Rhea, 
  Roane, Scott, Sequatchie, Sevier Smoky Mountains, Southeast Greene 
  and Union.

* Until 8 PM EDT/7 PM CDT/ this evening.

* Rains have been diminishing, however some flooding continues.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around; don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

$$

TNZ017-018-044>047-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-290000-
/O.CON.KMRX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210329T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Sullivan-Johnson-Washington-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast
Carter-Lee-Wise-Scott-Russell-Washington-
Including the cities of Bristol TN, Bristol VA, Big Stone Gap,
Lebanon, Appalachia, Doeville, Pardee, Honaker, Norton, Shady
Valley, Elizabethton, Hiltons, Johnson City, Mountain City, Dye,
Wise, Abingdon, Erwin, Rosedale, Unicoi, Castlewood, Laurel
Bloomery, Hampton, Limestone Cove, Rose Hill, Kingsport, Trade,
Neva, Benhams, South Holston Dam, Hansonville, and Coeburn
1238 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of east Tennessee, including the following areas, 
  Johnson, Northwest Carter, Southeast Carter, Sullivan, Unicoi and 
  Washington. Portions of southwest Virginia, including the 
  following areas, Lee, Russell, Scott, Washington and Wise.

* Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* Rains have been diminishing, however some flooding continues. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.


&&

$$

GM
819 
WGUS64 KMRX 281906
FFAMRX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Morristown TN
306 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>084-098-099-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-
282015-
/O.CAN.KMRX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210329T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Scott-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-
Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky
Mountains-Northwest Greene-Southeast Greene-Washington-Unicoi-
Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-
Northwest Blount-Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-Marion-Hamilton-Lee-Wise-
Scott-Russell-Washington-
Including the cities of Paulette, White Pine, Howard Quarter, Big
Stone Gap, Rockwood, Appalachia, Morristown, Dunlap, Honaker,
Shady Valley, Elizabethton, Hiltons, Cades Cove, Bristol VA,
Norris Lake, Greeneville, Cagle, Dye, Harrogate-Shawanee, Oneida,
Erwin, Royal Blue, Newport, Haletown (Guild), Big Spring, Kyles
Ford, Whitwell, Happy Valley, Laurel Bloomery, Spring City, Old
Cumberland, Kingsport, Cartwright, Old Washington, Pardee, Elk
Valley, White Oak, Clairfield, Knoxville, Evanston, Pigeon Forge,
Strawberry Plains, Norton, Fincastle, Mountain City, Sandlick,
Jasper, Alcoa, Arthur, High Point, Pikeville, Clinton, Limestone
Cove, Rose Hill, Jellico, Dayton, Trade, Sneedville, Neva, Sharps
Chapel, Eagle Furnace, Russellville, Harriman, Bybee, Gatlinburg,
Bristol TN, Monteagle, Elkmont, Chestnut Hill, Johnson City,
Seymour, Norma, Bean Station, Brayton, Petros, Big South Fork
National, Maryville, Pine Orchard, Abingdon, Kodak, Rosedale,
Melvine, Grandview, Elgin, Powells Crossroads, Lebanon, Oak
Ridge, Caryville, South Holston Dam, Martin Springs, Hansonville,
Slick Rock, La Follette, Springdale, Doeville, South Pittsburg,
Loudon, Maynardville, Huntsville, Bradbury, Luttrell, Harrisburg,
Hartford, Fairview, Palio, Mooresburg, Alpha, Treadway,
Evensville, Chattanooga, Smokey Junction, Wise, McMahan, Oliver
Springs, Cedar Creek, Mount Crest, Unicoi, Castlewood, Lake
Forest, Lone Mountain, Sevierville, Lone Oak, Lenoir City,
Hampton, Jefferson City, Dandridge, Kingston, Bearden, Benhams,
and Coeburn
306 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 /206 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for Portions of east Tennessee, including the 
following areas, Anderson, Bledsoe, Blount Smoky Mountains, 
Campbell, Claiborne, Cocke Smoky Mountains, Grainger, Hamblen, 
Hamilton, Hancock, Hawkins, Jefferson, Johnson, Knox, Loudon, 
Marion, Meigs, Morgan, North Sevier, Northwest Blount, Northwest 
Carter, Northwest Cocke, Northwest Greene, Rhea, Roane, Scott, 
Sequatchie, Sevier Smoky Mountains, Southeast Carter, Southeast 
Greene, Sullivan, Unicoi, Union and Washington. Portions of 
southwest Virginia, including the following areas, Lee, Russell, 
Scott, Washington and Wise. has been cancelled.

The Flash Flood Watch has been cancelled. Rains have moved out of the
area.  Any flooding of roads and small creeks should be receding.  
Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

$$

GM

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Morristown, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Mar 26, 4:06 PM EDT, 3 hours 4 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 26, 4:06 PM EDT, 3 hours 4 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
406 PM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

.SHORT TERM (Tonight and Saturday)...

Our fair weather will not last long. Frontal boundary well to our
south has brought in plenty of sunshine, but it will lift
northward rapidly and bring a new round of rainfall with it for
Saturday. Mesoscale indications support a threat of heavy precip
Saturday in a band oriented west to east from Middle TN to near
Knoxville. There is low confidence on the exact placement of this
forecasted precip, as well as the amount. Don't be surprised (if
the heavy rain forecast holds firm) if a Flood Watch is issued
tonight. But will have to look upon further model updates and
coordinate with surrounding offices.

There is also the issue of the warm front's progress. Haven't the
last two stalled to our south longer than anticipated? Will this
one? Again, the confidence in these details is a bit low. Even so,
our soils are quite saturated already, and after whatever
rainfall we receive Saturday, a second round of potentially heavy
rain will occur with the main cold frontal passage late Saturday
night and Sunday. Those details follow below.

GC

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Friday)...

Key Messages:

1. A line of strong to severe storms will cross late Sat night into
Sun morning, but the exact timing is low confidence.

2. The biggest impact will be areas of flooding across the Plateau
and S Valley.

3. The storms will be weakening as they cross, so the areal coverage
of severe weather is low confidence, but strong dynamics and at
least some surface instability pose a threat for pockets of damaging
winds, small hail, and an isolated tornado, mainly W of I-75.

4. Drying out Sun afternoon through Mon with cooler temps by Mon.

5. Warming trend again Tues and Wed with periods of showers and
thunderstorms, but not a washout.

6. Much colder Thurs into Fri with temps 10-15 degrees below normal.

Discussion:

Saturday Night and Sunday Morning...

Overview

A strong northern stream mid/upper trough will progress through the
Mid MS Valley Sat night and through the Great Lakes and OH Valley
Sun with an attendant surface low deepening to about 990 mb as it
lifts NE into Ontario Province. This will force a strong cold front
through the TN Valley and S Appalachians late Sat night through Sun
morning. Guidance is in agreement that the warm front will at least
make it into NE TN Sat night with a tongue of surface based
instability working into the Plateau, most of the Valley, and SE
TN/SW NC. However, as we have seen in recent events, the warm front
can be slow to move off the Plateau and fully lift NE through our
region, especially if there are showers ahead of it and some CAD
east of the Appalachians, so how quickly the surface based
instability can work NE (and how far) remains in question. The
system will be dynamic with a 125-130+ kt upper jet rounding the
base of the aforementioned northern stream trough across KY and the
OH Valley. The right entrance region of this jet max will enter the
S Appalachian region late Sat night with the associated strong upper
divergence creating large scale forcing for ascent and strong
frontogenesis ahead of the cold front. In response to this upper
forcing, a southwesterly low-level jet will also strengthen to 60
kts late Sat night into Sun morning.

Convective Evolution and Timing

The dynamics and thermodynamics will support a line of strong to
severe convection propagating into the region from Middle TN. The
exact timing that this line will reach the Plateau is low confidence
with the NAM, WRF, and other CAMs and HREF guidance differing from
pre-dawn hours of Sun to mid morning/early afternoon Sun. The
greatest chance of severe weather will be W of I-75 where surface
instability will more likely be in place (a few hundred joules of
surface CAPE), but with the late night/early morning timing, expect
storms to gradually lose their punch as they move E. With this being
said, areal extent of severe weather is uncertain, but strong 60-70
kt deep layer shear and 40 kt low-level shear will pose a risk of
damaging winds if the line can tap into the available surface CAPE.
Hail CAPE does not look too impressive, but mid level LR around 7
C/Km could support some small hail. Due to the linear nature of the
convection, generally weakening state, and high LCL heights, tornado
potential is low, but an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out
since 0-1 Km SRH is progged to be over 300 m2/s2. Expect the storms
to weaken as they move E of I-75 with much less severe potential in
those areas Sun morning.

Rainfall Amounts and Flooding

The far more certain aspect of this forecast is that there will be
some flooding. Heavy rains of generally 1-3 inches from the S
Plateau through the S Valley into SW NC yesterday saturated the
ground with a couple of rivers still above flood stage. The strong
low-level jet Sat night into Sun will transport anomalous moisture
northward with IVT progged to reach the 97th percentile to possibly
max daily climatological value by Sun morning leading to PWATs of 1
to 1.5 inches which is around the 99th percentile. This will lead to
heavy rainfall rates as the squall lines comes through. The good
news is that the line will be progressive with little to no training
expected, but the above mentioned southern areas have low FFG's due
to the wet antecedent conditions, so areas of flooding can be
expected.

Mountain Winds

As the low-level jet strengthens Sat night, expect at least advisory
level wind gusts in the E TN mountains and foothills. The flow will
be more SW than ideal across the terrain, and the strongest jet (60
kts) holds off until Sun morning, so held off on a High Wind Watch
for now with that being period 4. The higher peaks of the Smokies
will likely see gusts over 50 kts by Sun morning for a few hours.

Sunday Afternoon through Monday...

Drier air will quickly fill in behind the cold front Sun afternoon,
so dropped PoPs from W to E. Surface high pressure and NW flow on
the backside of the exiting mid/upper trough Sun night and Mon will
keep the region cooler with lows falling into the mid 30's/low 40's
Sun night and highs in the low 60's Mon. Areas of frost are possible
from the N Plateau through NE TN/SW VA Mon morning.

Monday Night through Friday...

A mid/upper ridge will amplify over the eastern CONUS Mon night into
Wed as a deepening longwave trough moves from the Rockies into the
Plains. This will rebound highs into the upper 60's/low 70's Tues
and Wed. A lead shortwave impulse will bring scattered showers Mon
night through Tues morning, followed by a better chance of both
showers and thunderstorms ahead of a strong cold front as the
longwave trough moves E on Wed. Behind this front Wed night through
Fri, an unseasonably deep mid/upper trough will dig into the eastern
CONUS with temps 10-15 degrees below normal. Any lingering showers
could mix with snow showers in the higher elevations late Wed night
into early Thurs before ending as drier air moves in during the day
Thurs.

Garuckas

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR will prevail most of the night. But moisture will return from
the south. Late in the period, MVFR cigs will start to build into
CHA, with rain arriving around 12Z, and spreading northward
through midday.

GC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             53  76  63  70  42 /  40  70  80  90   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  49  71  61  69  40 /  10  70  80  90  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       48  69  60  68  39 /  10  70  90  90   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              45  70  57  68  36 /   0  60  70  90  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 26, 4:00 PM EDT, 3 hours 10 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
400 PM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-272000-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-
Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-
Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-Southeast Greene-
Washington-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-
Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-Blount Smoky Mountains-
North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-
McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-
West Polk-East Polk-Lee-Wise-Russell-
400 PM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 /300 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No Hazardous Weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There could be some strong to possibly severe storms on the
Cumberland Plateau and in portions of the Valley mainly west of
Interstate 75 late Saturday night and then spreading across the
rest of east Tennessee, southwest Virginia and southwest North
Carolina during the morning Sunday. The primary threat will be
damaging winds, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

There will also be the potential for heavy rainfall Saturday,
and again on Sunday. This could cause some additional flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports may be needed Saturday and Sunday.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Morristown, TN issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 25, 10:52 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningMRXPolk10 hr
Mar 25, 11:06 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXPolk39 min
Mar 25, 11:43 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXBledsoe, Loudon, Rhea, Roane47 min
Mar 25, 11:43 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXMonroe, Polk47 min
Mar 25, 11:46 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningMRXPolk5 hr
Mar 25, 11:55 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMRXBlount, Monroe, Polk65 min
Mar 26, 12:14 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXAnderson, Campbell, Morgan46 min
Mar 26, 12:36 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMRXBlount, Cocke, Greene, Hamblen, Hawkins, Jefferson and 1 more22 min
Mar 26, 1:01 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMRXGrainger, Hamblen, Hancock, Hawkins, Jefferson, Knox and 1 more3 hr
Mar 26, 1:23 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMRXBlount, Grainger, Hamblen, Jefferson, Knox, Loudon and 2 more52 min
Mar 26, 7:12 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningMRXCocke, Jefferson9 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in Tennessee, 2021Flash Flood Watches in Virginia, 2021Flash Flood Watches in North Carolina, 2021Every flash flood watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.