Alert archive / Michigan / Wind Chill Advisories in 2021

Wind Chill Advisory 4, NWS Marquette, MI

February 8, 202110 counties in Michigan

NWS Marquette, MI issued this wind chill advisory at Feb 8, 2021, 3:33 PM EST for 10 counties in Michigan. It took effect at Feb 8, 2021, 7:00 PM EST. It was in force for 18 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 8, 2021, 3:33 PM EST (20:33 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 8, 2021, 7:00 PM EST
Expired
Feb 9, 2021, 1:00 PM EST
In force
18 hr
Issued by
NWS Marquette, MI

Counties Alger County, MI, Baraga County, MI, Delta County, MI, Dickinson County, MI, Gogebic County, MI, Houghton County, MI, Iron County, MI, Marquette County, MI, Menominee County, MI, Ontonagon County, MI

The radar

The Marquette radar (KMQT), 46 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 209 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2021-02-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2021-02-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -15 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1120 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
69 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-15 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
106 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

926 
WWUS43 KMQT 082033
WSWMQT

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
333 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2021

MIZ002-009-090500-
/O.NEW.KMQT.WC.Y.0004.210209T0000Z-210209T1800Z/
Ontonagon-Gogebic-
Including the cities of Ontonagon and Ironwood
333 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2021 /233 PM CST Mon Feb 8 2021/

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills of 25 below to 35 below zero
  expected. 

* WHERE...Ontonagon and Gogebic Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 1 PM EST /noon 
  CST/ Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold conditions could cause frostbite
  on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves. 

&&

$$

MIZ004-005-010-011-084-090500-
/O.NEW.KMQT.WC.Y.0004.210209T0300Z-210209T1800Z/
Baraga-Marquette-Iron-Dickinson-Southern Houghton-
Including the cities of L'Anse, Gwinn, Marquette, Iron River, 
Iron Mountain, Kenton, and Sidnaw
333 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2021 /233 PM CST Mon Feb 8 2021/

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills of 25 below to 35 below zero
  expected. 

* WHERE...Baraga, Marquette, Iron, Dickinson and Southern 
  Houghton Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening to 1 PM EST 
  /noon CST/ Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold conditions could cause frostbite
  on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

&&

$$

MIZ006-012-013-090500-
/O.NEW.KMQT.WC.Y.0004.210209T0600Z-210209T1500Z/
Alger-Menominee-Delta-
Including the cities of Grand Marais, Munising, Menominee, 
Escanaba, and Gladstone
333 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2021 /233 PM CST Mon Feb 8 2021/

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO
10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills of 25 below to 30 below zero
  expected. 

* WHERE...Alger, Menominee and Delta Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ 
  Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold conditions could cause frostbite
  on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves. 

&&

$$

MIZ001-003-090500-
/O.EXT.KMQT.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-210210T1800Z/
Keweenaw-Northern Houghton-
Including the cities of Copper Harbor, Houghton, and Hancock
333 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow and some blowing snow. Tonight through
  late Tuesday afternoon, expect additional snow accumulations of
  7 to 11 inches from Calumet north to Copper Harbor, 2 to 4
  inches in and around Houghton, 1 to 3 inches from Painesdale to
  Twin Lakes, and no additional snowfall south and east of Twin
  Lakes. Lake effect snow is expected to continue through
  Wednesday afternoon with additional moderate accumulations
  likely. In addition, very cold conditions with wind chills as
  low as 25 below zero tonight and Tuesday morning.

* WHERE...Northern Houghton and Keweenaw Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult at times due to brief
  white-outs during heavier snow showers and blowing snow. The
  hazardous conditions will impact the evening and morning
  commutes. The very cold conditions with wind chills as low as 
  25 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little
  as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Wear appropriate
clothing, a hat, and gloves. 

&&

$$

Rolfson
3 follow-up statements
740 
WWUS43 KMQT 090251
WSWMQT

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
951 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2021

MIZ001-003-091100-
/O.CON.KMQT.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-210210T1800Z/
Keweenaw-Northern Houghton-
Including the cities of Copper Harbor, Houghton, and Hancock
951 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow and some blowing snow. Tonight through 
  late Tuesday afternoon, expect additional snow accumulations 
  of 7 to 11 inches from Calumet north to Copper Harbor, 2 to 4 
  inches in and around Houghton, 1 to 3 inches from Painesdale 
  to Twin Lakes, and no additional snowfall south and east of 
  Twin Lakes. Lake effect snow is expected to continue through 
  Wednesday afternoon with additional moderate accumulations 
  likely. In addition, very cold conditions with wind chills as 
  low as 25 below zero tonight and Tuesday morning.

* WHERE...Northern Houghton and Keweenaw Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult at times due to brief 
  white-outs during heavier snow showers and blowing snow. The 
  hazardous conditions will impact the evening and morning 
  commutes. The very cold conditions with wind chills as low as 
  25 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as 
  little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Wear appropriate
clothing, a hat, and gloves.

&&

$$

MIZ002-009-091100-
/O.CON.KMQT.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210209T1800Z/
Ontonagon-Gogebic-
Including the cities of Ontonagon and Ironwood
951 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2021 /851 PM CST Mon Feb 8 2021/

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON
CST/ TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills of 25 below to 35 below zero 
  expected.

* WHERE...Ontonagon and Gogebic Counties.

* WHEN...Through 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold conditions could cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

&&

$$

MIZ004-005-010-011-084-091100-
/O.CON.KMQT.WC.Y.0004.210209T0300Z-210209T1800Z/
Baraga-Marquette-Iron-Dickinson-Southern Houghton-
Including the cities of L'Anse, Gwinn, Marquette, Iron River, 
Iron Mountain, Kenton, and Sidnaw
951 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2021 /851 PM CST Mon Feb 8 2021/

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON
CST/ TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills of 25 below to 35 below zero 
  expected.

* WHERE...Baraga, Marquette, Iron, Dickinson and Southern 
  Houghton Counties.

* WHEN...Through 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold conditions could cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

&&

$$

MIZ006-012-013-091100-
/O.CON.KMQT.WC.Y.0004.210209T0600Z-210209T1500Z/
Alger-Menominee-Delta-
Including the cities of Grand Marais, Munising, Menominee, 
Escanaba, and Gladstone
951 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2021 /851 PM CST Mon Feb 8 2021/

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT
CST/ TO 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills of 25 below to 35 below zero 
  expected.

* WHERE...Alger, Menominee and Delta Counties.

* WHEN...Through 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold conditions could cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

&&

$$

Voss
726 
WWUS43 KMQT 090935
WSWMQT

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
435 AM EST Tue Feb 9 2021


MIZ001-003-092030-
/O.CON.KMQT.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-210210T1800Z/
Keweenaw-Northern Houghton-
Including the cities of Copper Harbor, Houghton, and Hancock
435 AM EST Tue Feb 9 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect and blowing snow. Additional snowfall 
  accumulations through Wednesday afternoon of 5 to 9 inches from 
  Calumet to Copper Harbor, 2 to 4 inches near Houghton and 1 to 3
  inches from Painesdale to Twin Lakes. Wind chills ranging from 
  15 to 25 below zero through tonight.

* WHERE...Northern Houghton and Keweenaw Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult at times due to brief
  white-outs during heavier snow showers and blowing snow. The
  continued cold conditions could cause frostbite in as little as
  30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Wear appropriate
clothing and carry a winter preparedness kit if they need to 
travel. 
&&

$$

MIZ002-009-091800-
/O.CON.KMQT.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210209T1800Z/
Ontonagon-Gogebic-
Including the cities of Ontonagon and Ironwood
435 AM EST Tue Feb 9 2021 /335 AM CST Tue Feb 9 2021/

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON
CST/ THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Dangerous wind chills. Wind chills as low as 40 below 
  zero.

* WHERE...Ontonagon and Gogebic Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves. 

&&

$$

MIZ004-005-010-011-084-091800-
/O.CON.KMQT.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210209T1800Z/
Baraga-Marquette-Iron-Dickinson-Southern Houghton-
Including the cities of L'Anse, Gwinn, Marquette, Iron River, 
Iron Mountain, Kenton, and Sidnaw
435 AM EST Tue Feb 9 2021 /335 AM CST Tue Feb 9 2021/

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON
CST/ THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Dangerous wind chills. Wind chills as low as 40 below 
  zero.

* WHERE...Baraga, Marquette, Dickinson, Southern Houghton and 
  Iron Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves. 

&&

$$

MIZ006-012-013-091500-
/O.CON.KMQT.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210209T1500Z/
Alger-Menominee-Delta-
Including the cities of Grand Marais, Munising, Menominee, 
Escanaba, and Gladstone
435 AM EST Tue Feb 9 2021 /335 AM CST Tue Feb 9 2021/

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM
CST/ THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Dangerous wind chills. Wind chills as low as 35 below 
  zero.

* WHERE...Alger, Delta and Menominee Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves. 

&&

$$

JAW
607 
WWUS43 KMQT 091703
WSWMQT

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1203 PM EST Tue Feb 9 2021

MIZ001-003-100115-
/O.CON.KMQT.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-210210T1800Z/
Keweenaw-Northern Houghton-
Including the cities of Copper Harbor, Houghton, and Hancock
1203 PM EST Tue Feb 9 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect and blowing snow. Additional snowfall 
  accumulations through Wednesday afternoon of 5 to 9 inches 
  from Calumet to Copper Harbor, 2 to 4 inches near Houghton and 
  1 to 3 inches from Painesdale to Twin Lakes. Wind chills 
  ranging from 15 to 25 below zero through tonight.

* WHERE...Northern Houghton and Keweenaw Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult at times due to brief
  white-outs during heavier snow showers and blowing snow. The
  continued cold conditions could cause frostbite in as little as
  30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ002-009-091815-
/O.CON.KMQT.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210209T1800Z/
Ontonagon-Gogebic-
Including the cities of Ontonagon and Ironwood
1203 PM EST Tue Feb 9 2021 /1103 AM CST Tue Feb 9 2021/

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON
CST/ THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Dangerous wind chills. Wind chills as low as 25 below 
  zero.

* WHERE...Ontonagon and Gogebic Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves. 

&&

$$

MIZ004-005-010-011-084-091815-
/O.CON.KMQT.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210209T1800Z/
Baraga-Marquette-Iron-Dickinson-Southern Houghton-
Including the cities of L'Anse, Gwinn, Marquette, Iron River, 
Iron Mountain, Kenton, and Sidnaw
1203 PM EST Tue Feb 9 2021 /1103 AM CST Tue Feb 9 2021/

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON
CST/ THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Dangerous wind chills. Wind chills as low as 25 below 
  zero.

* WHERE...Baraga, Marquette, Dickinson, Southern Houghton and 
  Iron Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves. 

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this wind chill advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind chill advisory went out at Feb 8, 12:28 PM EST, 3 hours 5 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 8, 12:28 PM EST, 3 hours 5 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1228 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 519 AM EST MON FEB 8 2021

Arctic cold temperatures continue to be advected into the region
overnight from further upstream over northern Canada. Strong upper
level ridging over the Pac NW is assisting with troughiness over the
Northern CONUS southeastward over the Great Lakes. The semi-
stationary surface lo over the Hudson Bay region will continue to
circulate air flow ccw. This will assist with continued westerlies
for today and tonight, creating additional LES over Lake Superior.
The polar jet will continue to stay south of the CWA for the next 24
hours. Any mid-level waves that amplify into mid-latitude cyclones
are progged to stay south of the region for the short term.

Overnight observations are reporting cold temperatures throughout
Upper Michigan as of 9Z. For the first half of the overnight period,
Observations have ranged from single digits above zero over the
Keweenaw Peninsula adjacent to the shoreline to approximately -20F
over the interior west closest to the WI/MI state line. Sustained
winds have made the apparent temperatures feel like the -20s to -30s
F. This certainly verifies the present Wind Chill Advy. Westerly
winds have assisted with lake effect snow over the Keweenaw
Peninsula southward to Ontonagon from earlier this evening to
presently. An extension of the primary lake effect snow band has
staying primarily north of the eastern shorelines overnight. This has
been verified with the nighttime microphysics satellite channel.
However, the latest radar returns do show a slight southward
progression toward the Grand Marais area of the lake effect bands.
Will need to monitor this in the event we get reports of moderate
snowfall accumulation from the public closer to 12Z this morning.

The approaching 1032mb surface High over the Dakotas early this
morning is forecast to propagate toward northern IL/MO by later
tonight. As this happens, the semi-stationary surface lo over the
Hudson Bay region will retrograde into ne Manitoba/nw Ontario. This
will assist with tightening the surface pressure gradient, and will
continue to cause gusty west winds over western and central Lake
Superior. Surface convergence along the shoreline will cause the
winds to temporarily shift to the wsw from this morning thru
approximately 3Z. This convergence will undoubtedly cause the LES to
slowly shift further to the north from Ontonagon County toward the
norther tier of Keweenaw County. The most dominant snow bands will
most likely impact only the areas from Mohawk to Copper Harbor by
late afternoon. Sharp visibility reductions in the heaviest lake
effect snow showers are likely in brief periods as well. Snow
accumulation looks to be an additional 1 to 4 inches through the
afternoon timeframe, the highest totals happening this morning
through about noon. Expect high temperatures to stay on the cold
side today, with low single digits for the western half of the Upper
Peninsula, and daytime maximums from ten to the low teens for the
eastern half of the Upper Peninsula.

For the overnight period, winds will slowly shift back to a w and nw
direction over Lake Superior. This will gradually shift the
persistent lake effect snow bands slightly further south back inland
over the Keweenaw Peninsula. Areas most favored for moderate to
heavy snowfall in brief periods of time is likely to be from CMX
north over the Keweenaw Peninsula. Surface convergence will be
strongest between 6Z-12Z. Model soundings for the Copper Harbor area
show impressive deep saturated layer with inversion heights near 7k
ft, atmospheric lift within the DGZ also being maximized quite
nicely. Localized areas may see moderate to heavy snow at times
Monday night into early Tuesday. Snowfall accumulation near and
around the Copper Harbor to CMX area could quickly accumulate in the
heaviest lake effect snow shower bands from 2 to 5 inches overnight.
Will need to evaluate if an advy is warranted after the current advy
is set to end shortly after noon today. Overnight lows across the
entire CWA will be cold once again tonight into Tuesday morning.
Expect readings in the negative teens to possibly -20F over the
interior west by early Tuesday morning. Areas over the Keweenaw
Peninsula will be close to 0F for an overnight low due to the nearby
Lake Superior water having a moderation effect of the nearby
airmass. Apparent temperature values are likely to reach wind chill
thresholds of -25F to -35F again overnight into Tuesday, so a
headline is likely for this timeframe as well.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 332 AM EST MON FEB 8 2021

Not many changes are expected in the first part of the week, as the
core of the negative height anomaly and cold air sits over Central
North America. Deterministic and ensemble runs continue to suggest
850mb temps hovering near -25C through Friday. This will translate
to surface highs largely in the single digits and lows below zero.
Wind chills are expected to flirt with or reach advisory criteria at
night and the morning hours each day. The persistent cold air and
ice free lake will also continue to produce heavy lake effect snow
showers, with daily variations in where the heaviest bands set up.
By the end of the week, models begin to diverge on where the deep
upper level low will pivot. This translates to a varying signal in
where the core of the cold air is expected through the weekend.

Focusing on the Keweenaw Peninsula first, high pressure over Iowa
and the low pressure over northern Manitoba will continue the
westerly flow over Lake Superior Tuesday. A shortwave is expected to
swing through the upper level flow on Tuesday. This combined with
the slightly more southwesterly wind off the land will provide an
added convergent boost to the extreme instability, producing heavy
lake effect snow showers, especially along the southern edge of the
lake effect zone. There's good agreement on where this is expected
at the moment in the west between the Canadian Reg, the NAM and GFS.
These all position this enhanced convergent zone around the Houghton
area early and then lifting it northward through the day into
Keeweenaw County. This northward shift should correspond to the
heaviest bands lifting northward through the day. The bands looks to
sink south again overnight on Tuesday closer to the
Ontonagon/Houghton northern county line. Snow amounts Tuesday and
Tuesday night look to be 3-6" with locally heavier spots possible if
the bands are slower to move around. The main hazard with these snow
showers instead will be the blowing snow and temporary white out
conditions, especially on roadways exposed to the west wind. Outside
of the Keweenaw Tuesday, little to no snow is expected. This
includes the east where it looks like the southern edge of the lake
effect zone will be further offshore. However, it does look like
overnight Tuesday, the southern edge will sink south and bring
another band of snow into Alger and Luce Counties. There is less
certainty about this and there's some guidance suggesting it could
stay offshore. The colder airmass will translate to highs in the
single digits in the west half, especially in the interior parts of
Gogebic and Ontonagon counties where temps should be in the low
single digits above. In the east half temps should top out near 10
to the low teens. Overnight lows should be below zero across the
board with the coldest expected again in the interior west half.
There lows should be -10 to -20F. Wind chills continue to look like
widespread -15 to -30F, especially away from the lakeshores. The
coldest values look to be the interior west half of the UP.

On Wednesday, guidance continues to suggest a meso low developing in
the eastern half of the lake. This will veer the winds to the
northwest through Thursday, when the structure takes on more of an
inverted v trough look across the Great Lakes. This will translate
to snow showers across the northwest wind lake effect snow belts
becoming northerly in the east Thursday.

Beginning on Friday, the guidance begins to diverge on the synoptic
setup. The GFS begins pulling the upper level low toward the east
into Ontario, while the Canadian keeps it over southern
Saskatchewan/Manitoba. This could impact the depth of the cold air
and guidance does show a slight warming trend through the weekend.
Either way, it still looks like the LES could continue into the
weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM EST MON FEB 8 2021

VFR conditions will prevail at KIWD/KSAW thru this fcst period as
lake effect clouds/snow remain n of the terminals under wsw winds.
At KCMX, while backing winds will shift heavier lake effect snow
bands n of the terminal thru this evening, winds will retain enough
of a westerly component for shsn to continue. Since the finer/more
powdery type of snow occurring in this arctic air mass is highly
effective at reducing vis and can be easily lofted off the ground
and into the air by wind gusts, vis will likely remain around
airfield landing mins. However, if winds do back slightly more than
expected, KCMX could break out to IFR or even MVFR at times this
aftn/evening. Later tonight into Tue morning, winds will veer
slightly for a time, and this should result in prevailing conditions
falling back blo airfield landing mins.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 309 AM EST MON FEB 8 2021

Expect w to nw winds of 20-30kt to prevail across Lake Superior thru
early Monday morning. Backing of winds to w and wsw will occur from
mid morning thru early this evening of 20-30 kt. This evening into
Tuesday, winds will veer back to w and nw at 20-30 kt. Some gale
force gusts are also expected at times from this morning through
evening. With arctic air remaining over the area, hvy freezing spray
will continue. Winds will subside a bit Wed thru Fri, but will be
monitoring for the potential of a strengthening sfc trof and
potential lake induced low pres that may develop Fri. If that
occurs, winds will ramp up. At a minimum, expect winds to shift more
northerly during that time.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Wind Chill Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon for
     MIZ002-004>006-009>013-084.

  Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ001-
     003.

Lake Superior...
  Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Tuesday
     for LSZ162-240>251-263>267.

  Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ248>251-
     265>267.

Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...BW
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 8, 5:24 AM EST, 10 hours 9 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Marquette MI
524 AM EST Mon Feb 8 2021

MIZ001-003-091030-
Keweenaw-Northern Houghton-
524 AM EST Mon Feb 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Lake effect snow showers and areas of blowing snow will continue
today. Expect very poor visibility in the heavier lake effect
snow bands. See the latest Winter Weather Message for more
details.

Wind chills will be around 15 to 25 below zero tonight. Wind
chills this cold will cause frostbite on exposed skin in less than
30 minutes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Very cold air will remain over the area through next weekend,
resulting in lake effect snow showers and some blowing snow each
day. Expect very poor visibility in the snow showers and blowing
snow.

Wind chills will again be around 15 to 25 below zero Tuesday
night and into Wednesday morning. Wind chills this cold will
cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to submit snowfall reports to the National
Weather Service via phone, on our website, or through Facebook or
Twitter using #906wx.

MIZ002-004>006-009>013-084-091030-
Ontonagon-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-
Delta-Southern Houghton-
524 AM EST Mon Feb 8 2021 /424 AM CST Mon Feb 8 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper
Michigan and central Upper Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Lake effect snow showers and areas of blowing snow will continue
tonight. Expect very poor visibility in the heavier lake effect
snow bands. See the latest Winter Weather Message for more
details.

Wind chills will be 20 to 35 below zero this morning, especially
in the west half of Upper Michigan away from the immediate
lakeshores. Wind chills this cold will cause frostbite on exposed
skin in less than 10 minutes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Very cold air will remain over the area through next weekend. This
cold air will likely lead to lake effect snow showers in the
northwest to north wind snow belts Wednesday through Sunday,
which could be heavy at times and lead to very poor visibility.

Wind chills will again be 15 to 25 below zero Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Wind chills this cold will cause frostbite on
exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to submit snowfall reports to the National
Weather Service via phone, on our website, or through Facebook or
Twitter using #906wx.

MIZ007-014-085-091030-
Luce-Southern Schoolcraft-Northern Schoolcraft-
524 AM EST Mon Feb 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Upper
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Lake effect snow showers and patchy blowing snow remain possible
along the Lake Superior shoreline this morning and again tonight,
mainly east of Grand Marais. Expect very poor visibility in the
heavier lake effect snow bands.

Wind chills will be around 15 to 30 below zero again this morning
and tonight. Wind chills this cold could cause frostbite on
exposed skin in less than 30 minutes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Very cold air will remain over the area through this coming
weekend. This cold air will likely lead to lake effect snow
showers in the northwest to north wind snow belts Wednesday
through Sunday, which could be heavy at times and lead to very
poor visibility.

Wind chills will again be around 15 to 25 below zero Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. Wind chills this cold could cause
frostbite on exposed skin in less than 30 minutes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to submit snowfall reports to the National
Weather Service via phone, on our website, or through Facebook or
Twitter using #906wx.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-091030-
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
524 AM EST Mon Feb 8 2021 /424 AM CST Mon Feb 8 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake
Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few gale force gusts are expectecd today and heavy freezing
spray is expected today and tonight. See the latest Marine
Weather Message and Open Lake Forecast for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Heavy freezing spray is expected over much of Lake Superior
through the weekend. See the latest Marine Weather Message and
Open Lake Forecast for more details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LMZ221-248-250-091030-
Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island
Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
524 AM EST Mon Feb 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

JP

In the hours before

Local storm report, Feb 8, 11:34 AM EST, 3 hours 59 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1134 AM EST MON FEB 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 AM     EXTR WIND CHILL  2 NW ROCK HARBOR LIGHTH 48.11N 88.61W
02/08/2021  M-38 F           KEWEENAW           MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION OJIM4 OJIBWAY - ISLE ROYALE.

0601 AM     EXTR WIND CHILL  6 ESE WAKEFIELD         46.44N 89.83W
02/08/2021  M-32 F           GOGEBIC            MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION WKFM4 6 ESE WAKEFIELD.

1037 PM     EXTR WIND CHILL  WATERSMEET              46.27N 89.17W
02/07/2021  M-31 F           GOGEBIC            MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION WMTM4 WATERSMEET.

0824 AM     EXTR WIND CHILL  1 E WINDIGO             47.91N 89.14W
02/08/2021  M-26 F           KEWEENAW           MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION WINM4 WINDIGO - ISLE ROYALE.

0803 AM     EXTR WIND CHILL  4 NNW WATTON            46.60N 88.63W
02/08/2021  M-26 F           BARAGA             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION BPLM4 4 NNW WATTON.

0518 AM     EXTR WIND CHILL  5 S SANDS               46.35N 87.40W
02/08/2021  M-26 F           MARQUETTE          MI   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KSAW SAWYER AIRPORT.

0255 AM     EXTR WIND CHILL  5 SE NEWBERRY           46.30N 85.45W
02/08/2021  M-26 F           LUCE               MI   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KERY NEWBERRY.

1247 AM     EXTR WIND CHILL  2 N WITCH LAKE          46.32N 88.02W
02/08/2021  M-25 F           MARQUETTE          MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION FW8041 REPUBLIC.

&&

TAP
Local storm report, Feb 8, 12:47 PM EST, 2 hours 46 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1247 PM EST MON FEB 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     SNOW             PAINESDALE              47.04N 88.67W
02/08/2021  M6.7 INCH        HOUGHTON           MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION PDLM4 PAINESDALE.

0800 AM     SNOW             8 N MASS CITY           46.87N 89.10W
02/08/2021  M5.0 INCH        ONTONAGON          MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION GNLM4 GREENLAND 6 N.

&&

TAP
Local storm report, Feb 8, 12:50 PM EST, 2 hours 43 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1250 PM EST MON FEB 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 AM     EXTR WIND CHILL  KINGSFORD               45.81N 88.11W
02/08/2021  M-26 F           DICKINSON          MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KIMT KINGSFORD.

&&

TAP
Local storm report, Feb 8, 12:53 PM EST, 2 hours 40 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1253 PM EST MON FEB 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 AM     EXTR WIND CHILL  4 NW BESSEMER           46.52N 90.12W
02/08/2021  M-36 F           GOGEBIC            MI   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KIWD IRONWOOD AIRPORT.

0756 AM     EXTR WIND CHILL  3 W ECHO LAKE           46.61N 88.91W
02/08/2021  M-24 F           HOUGHTON           MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION KTNM4 8 N KENTON.

0556 AM     EXTR WIND CHILL  ESCANABA                45.75N 87.08W
02/08/2021  M-24 F           DELTA              MI   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KESC DELTA CO. AIRPORT.

0815 AM     EXTR WIND CHILL  4 E MANISTIQUE          45.97N 86.17W
02/08/2021  M-23 F           SCHOOLCRAFT        MI   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KISQ SCHOOLCRAFT CO. AIRPORT.

0304 AM     EXTR WIND CHILL  6 NNE CHICAGO LAKE      46.13N 86.58W
02/08/2021  M-23 F           DELTA              MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION HBRM4 7 SW STEUBEN.

&&

TAP
Local storm report, Feb 8, 12:58 PM EST, 2 hours 35 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1258 PM EST MON FEB 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     EXTR WIND CHILL  1 ESE MARQUETTE         46.55N 87.38W
02/08/2021  M-24 F           MARQUETTE          MI   MESONET

            NOS WATER LEVEL OBSERVATION NETWORK STATION
            MCGM4 MARQUETTE C.G., MI.

&&

TAP

Nearby

Wind Chill Advisories in Michigan, 2021Every wind chill advisory in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.