Special Weather Statement, NWS Marquette, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
236 AM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT SAT OCT 9 2021

Upper air pattern consists of a trough in the upper Great Lakes
region down onto the east coast, a ridge in the southern plains and
a trough in the Rockies. A shortwave will emerge out of the Rockies
trough and will move across the northern plains on Sun and form a
closed low. Deeper moisture and 850-500 mb q-vector convergence move
in on Sun. Confidence low in this forecast due lack of confidence in
models handling of pops and hard to get a handle on any convection
that will occur. Will broadbrush pops for now and go with low
chances through most of this period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2021

Fairly active pattern through the longterm period. In general, large
scale troffing will be present across much of the wern CONUS as
downstream ridging and positive height anomalies will be present
through the Great Lakes and ern CONUS, extending well to the north
over Hudson Bay. This pattern will set up an active storm track over
the central portions of the CONUS as multiple waves lift through the
Plains. The first will be exiting to our NW on Monday morning
through northern MN bringing sct showers and an isolated
thunderstorm chance across the ern UP. As this first wave exits,
another moves in behind it on a track slightly to the east of the
first. This will bring another chance of widespread showers Monday
night into Tuesday. The third wave ejects from the Rockies on
Tuesday night as sfc low deepens across the Central Plains Wednesday
morning...lifting through the Northern Plains by Wednesday evening.
This system will bring some pcpn and wind across the UP, but the
larger impacts will likely remain off to our west in the Dakotas.
All of this will occur while temperatures remain above normal
through much of the extended period before more seasonable air
temporarily moves in behind the low for the weekend.

This first system exits early Monday morning, which will leave a
cloudy, but mostly dry Monday morning and aftn across Upper
Michigan. The next system in line will begin lifting through the
Central Plains on Monday aftn, reaching the UP Monday evening into
early Tuesday morning. The best chances for pcpn with this system
will be across the central and ern portions of the UP, where the
southerly flow and dewpoints will be the highest...but most
locations should pickup some pcpn. As this system will be weakening
as it moves through, winds won't be a concern and the only
thunderstorms chances will be slight and over the east half along
the LLJ.

As the system slowly lifts north over the UP on Tuesday, there will
be a chance for some sct showers through the first half of the day.
Conditions should dry out by Tuesday aftn into Wednesday. Attention
will then turn to the last system of the week that looks to mainly
impact locations to our west across the Northern Plains. A wave is
expected to eject out of the Rockies on Tuesday aftn before lifting
north as a leeside low develops over the Dakotas by Wednesday
morning. A pcpn shield associated with this system will remain to
the north of the low over the Dakotas and MN as the UP picks up some
trailing pcpn along the TROWAL Wednesday night.

This system is slow to lift away from the region, as it lifts to
Hudson Bay by Saturday morning. Deterministic models and their ens
means suggest a more seasonable airmass moving over Upper Michigan
for the weekend. Model 850mb temps fall btwn 0 and -3C, which should
bring a cloudy weekend with the potential for some lake-
effect...rain. Unfortunately for those looking for more of a wintry
forecast, that will likely wait as ens means suggest another ridge
building in across the central CONUS by the start of next week.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1255 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2021

As opposed to the last several nights, low-level winds will be on
the increase overnight as low pres deepens over the Northern Plains.
Looks like the increase in winds above nocturnal inversion won't
quite be sufficient for LLWS. The increasing winds will support a
band of sct shra/isold tsra that will lift ne across Upper MI
overnight into the morning hrs. For now, only a VCTS mention was
included in fcst at IWD/CMX/SAW. The downsloping s to se low-level
wind at IWD should allow VFR conditions to prevail thru the night.
Eventually, increasing moisture should lead to a period of MVFR cigs
for the morning hrs. Improvement to VFR expected early aftn. At CMX,
VFR conditions should also prevail thru the night. MVFR cigs will
arrive this morning in association with shra/possible tsra. Expect
VFR conditions by evening. At SAW, upslope sse wind will result in
LIFR cigs overnight. Improvement to low MVFR expected early this
aftn.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 258 PM EDT SAT OCT 9 2021

The wind will be on the increase tonight across Lake Superior as a
low pressure system approaches and will get up to 30 knots by midday
Sunday. Winds will remain elevated into early Monday as they shift
to the SW. The wind will decrease to less than 20 knots on Monday
where it remain until late Wednesday. On Thursday, widespread SE to
SW gusts of around 25 knots are anticipated.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JAW
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Marquette MI
326 AM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021

MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-110730-
Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce-
Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-
Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft-
326 AM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 /226 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper
Michigan and central Upper Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are possible today through this evening. A
stronger storm or two is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms on Monday and Monday
night across central and eastern Upper Michigan.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-110730-
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
326 AM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 /226 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake
Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are possible today through this evening. A
stronger storm or two is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms on Monday and Monday
night across central and eastern Lake Superior.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LMZ221-248-250-110730-
Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island
Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
326 AM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are possible today through this evening. A
stronger storm or two is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms on Monday and Monday
night

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

JAW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
328 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

MIZ009-100900-
Gogebic MI-
328 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Gogebic
County through 400 AM CDT...

At 328 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Winchester, or 15 miles southeast of Ironwood, moving north at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Bessemer and Wakefield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4652 9004 4641 8952 4624 8957 4623 8961
      4633 9010
TIME...MOT...LOC 0828Z 196DEG 28KT 4627 8997

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

JAW