Special Weather Statement, NWS Marquette, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
631 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 401 PM EDT MON JUL 26 2021

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a wnw mid/upper level flow
through the northern Great Lakes between a trough through Hudson Bay
into the ne CONUS and a ridge from the Great Basin into the Western
Plains. An upstream shortwave trough located over the Northern
Plains has initiated convection early this afternoon along an
instability gradient north of KINL into the arrowhead of MN southern
Saskatchewan and into ne WI. Otherwise, weak sfc high pressure has
kept conditions dry thus far across Upper Mi with interior temp
readings well into the 80s under partly cloudy skies.

Not great agreement or continuity with the CAMs solutions, although
most solutions maintain generally dry conditions with cap of up to
100 j/kg of CIN into the early evening hours. Consensus of CAMs
solutions shows CIN and weak cap gradually eroding as main shortwave
from the northern Plains moves overhead by late evening/early
overnight with more robust convection initiating in the western cwa
between 9 and 11 pm and then spreading south and east through the
late evening and early overnight hours. MUCAPE values of 1000-1500
j/kg along with deep layer shear of 45-50 kts oriented warm frontal
boundary along or just south of the WI border should result in
organized convection becoming more linear with time late evening
into overnight hours. Given instability and strong shear...SPC
day1 convective outlook has much of the west half of the U.P.
under a slight risk of severe storms and the east half under a
marginal risk. Main threat from severe storms will be large hail
and damaging winds. Would suspect organized convective storms or
any developing bowing segments to turn more south with time later
tonight following the better instability gradient. Any remaining
storms should diminish and move out late tonight as the shortwave
exits to the se.

Tuesday, frontal boundary lingers along south central portions of
the U.P. and a few of the model soundings show building instability
through the day and pooling of higher mid 60s dewpoints along the
boundary. A few of the CAMs try to initiate convection over the
south central U.P. but I have a hard time believing this will happen
as mid-level ridge heights will be building through the day and
drying/subsidence occurring at mid-levels. Soundings also show a
pretty substantial cap that would have to be overcome so expect dry
conditions should be the rule across the cwa. With relatively high
dewpoints still in place, expect there could be diurnal cu over the
interior. With 850mb temps ranging from 12-13c east to around 15c
west, expect max temps ranging from the lower 70s along the Lake
Superior shoreline to the upper 70s to around 80s over interior
locations.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 328 PM EDT MON JUL 26 2021

The next time period to watch will be Wednesday as another
shortwave rides around the periphery of the upper ridge centered
over the Central Plains. For this next feature, timing has it
coming across portions of Upper Michigan at the height of daytime
heating, which could easily enhance the severity potential if
other parameters come together. Given this consideration, there
are indications that Wednesday's event could be the bigger one to
watch given that 0-6km bulk shear, instability, moisture content,
and so forth all seem supportive for a severe event. Then the
question becomes track and placement, which is lower confidence as
it is still two days out. Some models have the main convective
complex primarily crossing WI while others, such as the NAM, are
much further north, cutting right through the heart of the U.P.,
which isn't unreasonable given the expectation of the upper ridge
meandering to the ENE by then. Stay tuned.

Once that convection clears out, expect a brief quiet weather
period on Thursday as surface high pressure stops by. As the
aforementioned upper ridge breaks down late in the week, this will
open the door for an upper trough to sink down across Ontario by
early next weekend, accompanied by another chance for showers and
thunderstorms. Surface high pressure under meridional flow then
looks to build in toward the end of the weekend into early next
week.

As previously discussed, temperatures continue to look on track to
run near to above normal for the long-term period. Highs each day
will generally run in the 70s and 80s, with lows ranging from the
40s in the interior behind a fropa Thursday night into Friday
morning and then again over the weekend, and 50s and 60s
elsewhere/otherwise.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 631 PM EDT MON JUL 26 2021

VFR conditions are expected through most of the period. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop or move into the region this
evening and continue overnight. There is the potential for strong
wind gusts with some of the storms and also some MVFR conditions as
well. However, confidence is limited with the timing/coverage of the
storms.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 401 PM EDT MON JUL 26 2021

Winds are expected to be 20 kts or less through much of the fcst
period. A seasonably strong cold frontal passage Wed night could
generate north to northwesterly gusts up to 20-25 knots behind the
front on Thursday, highest over the east half.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...07
MARINE...Voss

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Marquette MI
421 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-272030-
Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce-
Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-
Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft-
421 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 /321 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper
Michigan and central Upper Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight.
Primary hazards in any of the strongest thunderstorms that occur
will be damaging winds, large hail, and heavy downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday into early Thursday.
Primary hazards in any of the strongest thunderstorms that occur
will be gusty winds, hail, and heavy downpours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to submit reports to the National
Weather Service in Marquette. The public may also submit reports
on our webpage, Facebook page, or on Twitter using #906wx.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-272030-
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
421 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 /321 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake
Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight.
Primary hazards in any of the strongest thunderstorms that occur
will be damaging winds and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday into early Thursday.
Primary hazards in any of the strongest thunderstorms that occur
will be gusty winds and hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to submit reports to the National
Weather Service in Marquette. The public may also submit reports
on our webpage, Facebook page, or on Twitter using #906wx.

LMZ221-248-250-272030-
Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island
Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
421 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight.
Primary hazards in any of the strongest thunderstorms that occur
will be damaging winds and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday into early Thursday.
Primary hazards in any of the strongest thunderstorms that occur
will be gusty winds and hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to submit reports to the National
Weather Service in Marquette. The public may also submit reports
on our webpage, Facebook page, or on Twitter using #906wx.

lg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1001 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

MIZ002-003-084-270230-
Ontonagon MI-Houghton MI-Southern Houghton MI-
1001 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 1000 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mass City, or 12 miles east of Ontonagon, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mass City, Nisula, Greenland, Alston and Bob Lake.

LAT...LON 4681 8919 4692 8906 4678 8868 4658 8889
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 309DEG 22KT 4683 8906

EK/07

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1005 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

MIZ002-009-270230-
Ontonagon MI-Gogebic MI-
1005 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES
UNTIL 1030 PM EDT/930 PM CDT/...

At 1004 PM EDT/904 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from Silver City to 10 miles
northeast of Saxon. Movement was southeast at 55 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Ironwood, Ontonagon, Bessemer, Wakefield, Marenisco, Hurley,
Bergland, Rockland, Bruce Crossing, Northern Lake Gogebic, Silver
City, Norwich, Presque Isle Reservoir, Lake Gogebic State Park, Clark
Lake, Ewen, Thomaston, Little Girls Point, Copper Peak and Victoria
Dam.

LAT...LON 4691 8932 4664 8898 4659 8899 4640 8932
      4630 8992 4631 9000 4635 9011 4650 9022
      4651 9028 4652 9028 4661 9039
TIME...MOT...LOC 0204Z 316DEG 48KT 4684 8955 4662 9026

EK/07

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1036 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

MIZ002-004-009-010-084-270300-
Ontonagon MI-Baraga MI-Gogebic MI-Southern Houghton MI-Iron MI-
1036 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN IRON...EAST CENTRAL
GOGEBIC...SOUTHWESTERN HOUGHTON...SOUTHWESTERN BARAGA AND SOUTHERN
ONTONAGON COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM EDT/1000 PM CDT/...

At 1036 PM EDT/936 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Alberta to Northern
Lake Gogebic. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Covington, Bergland, Kenton, Bruce Crossing, Paulding, Alberta,
Northern Lake Gogebic, Sidnaw, U.S. 141 between Covington and Amasa,
Norwich, Canyon Falls, Trout Creek, King Lake, Watton, Victoria Dam,
Echo Lake, Bond Falls, Bob Lake, Ewen and Merriweather.

LAT...LON 4643 8812 4632 8936 4659 8972 4669 8944
      4673 8848
TIME...MOT...LOC 0236Z 309DEG 27KT 4667 8853 4655 8962

EK/07

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1108 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

MIZ002-004-005-009>011-084-270400-
Ontonagon MI-Marquette MI-Baraga MI-Gogebic MI-Southern Houghton MI-
Iron MI-Dickinson MI-
1108 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR IRON...NORTHERN DICKINSON...
SOUTHEASTERN GOGEBIC...SOUTHWESTERN MARQUETTE...SOUTHWESTERN
HOUGHTON...SOUTHWESTERN BARAGA AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTONAGON COUNTIES
UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT/1100 PM CDT/...

At 1108 PM EDT/1008 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Lake Michigamme to 7
miles northeast of Boulder Junction. Movement was southeast at 55
mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Iron River, Crystal Falls, Watersmeet, Stambaugh, Covington,
Paulding, U.S. 141 between Covington and Amasa, Channing, Squaw Lake,
Kenton, Amasa, Sidnaw, Witch Lake, Sagola, Republic, Caspian,
Gaastra, Alpha, Tamarack Lake and Ralph.

LAT...LON 4645 8912 4658 8834 4615 8759 4596 8832
      4599 8837 4599 8849 4602 8851 4602 8860
      4599 8862 4599 8866 4602 8869 4603 8884
      4614 8909 4626 8970
TIME...MOT...LOC 0308Z 298DEG 48KT 4646 8810 4621 8954

EK/07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1152 PM EDT MON JUL 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     HAIL             5 SE WATERSMEET         46.22N 89.11W
07/26/2021  M0.50 INCH       GOGEBIC            MI   COCORAHS

            IRREGULARLY SHAPED HAILSTONES FELL FOR LESS
            THAN 5 MINUTES WITH FREQUENT, INTENSE
            LIGHTNING.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1155 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

MIZ013-270430-
Delta MI-
1155 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 1155 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rapid River, or 16 miles northeast of Escanaba, moving east at 15
mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Nahma, Isabella, Ensign and Nahma Junction.

LAT...LON 4585 8697 4603 8691 4601 8650 4574 8659
TIME...MOT...LOC 0355Z 282DEG 14KT 4593 8685

EK/07