Special Weather Statement, NWS Marquette, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
127 PM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 522 AM EDT WED JUN 30 2021

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a strong mid-level
anticyclone centered along the southern BC/AB border. Downstream, a
trof extends from Hudson Bay to the Upper Mississippi
Valley/northern Great Lakes. Within the trof, the shortwave that
brought the shra/tsra to the area yesterday is well e of Lake
Superior. A second trailing wave is currently moving across eastern
Upper MI/eastern Lake Superior. No pcpn is associated with this
feature. To the n, a shortwave is dropping s into far northern
Ontario. Otherwise, patchy fog, some of it dense, is noted across
the fcst area early this morning. Temps range from the mid 50s to
mid 60s F.

Patchy fog will dissipate within a few hrs of sunrise. However, with
lake breezes developing today, patchy fog may continue to affect
areas along the lakeshores. With skies becoming generally mostly
sunny, expect a warmer day. 850mb temps in the 13-15C range will
support high temps into the lwr 80s F across the interior west half
with some locations reaching the mid 80s. Mid to upper 70s will be
more common east while lake breezes will lead to some cooling close
to the Lakes. With the stronger heating today, instability will
build, and this will lead to sct shra/tsra developing this aftn
along/ahead of the lake breeze boundaries over the s central and se
fcst area. Approaching shortwave from northern Ontario should
provide some additional support for convection. Dwpts should begin
to mix out over the w with mixed layer tapping drier air aloft. So
don't anticipate any convection over the w. Broad model consensus
suggests MLCAPE increasing to 1000-1500j/kg across the s central
today ahead of lake breezes. 06z NAM has trended higher with values
as high as 2000j/kg. Deep layer shear upwards of 30-35kt or so will
support organized storms. Given the shear/instabilty, an isold svr
storm (large hail/damaging wind) is not out of the question with the
favored area over far southern Marquette County, western Delta
County, eastern Dickinson County and all of Menominee County.
Shra/tsra will exit to the s this evening. Additional isold/sct
convection will likely develop nw and n of Lake Superior this aftn.
This activity may affect Isle Royale, but being sfc based
convection, it should dissipate as it moves across the marine layer
of Lake Superior. If not, a few -shra could reach w and nw Upper MI
this evening. Otherwise, expect a clear to partly cloudy night.
Cooler air will begin to advect southward ahead of high pres
building into northern Ontario tonight. Expect lows in the 50s F
with some interior locations slipping blo 50F.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 AM EDT WED JUN 30 2021

With the upper trough that has been hanging out just to the west
finally traversing across the Upper Great Lakes, the long-term
period will start off with Upper Michigan on the other side of it.
Save for some lingering sprinkles Thursday morning out east as the
axis exits, precip chances will be nil through well into the
upcoming holiday weekend. High pressure/stout ridging building in
across the Upper Midwest will ensure warm, precip-free conditions
until it departs into the Ohio Valley early next week. Troughing
attempting to deepen next week as it enters into northern Ontario
plus the ridge to the south will reopen the door to precip
potential as a shortwave or two treks on by. Expect
shower/thunderstorm chances to return by Monday as a result, with
additional chances into mid-week.

Model guidance has taken quite the upward approach to temperatures
for this weekend, courtesy of the aforementioned ridge. Highs
tomorrow are anticipated to be on the cooler side of normal under
northeasterly surface flow with temps upstream across the lake in
Ontario not appearing to rise too high. However, a well-mixed
setup appears in order with dewpoints dropping off during the
height of the afternoon. But, once that ridging takes control of
local weather by week's end, said upward trajectory occurs with
widespread 80s and low 90s on Saturday, and even warmer on Sunday
with widespread 90s. As mentioned previously, an excellent beach-
going weekend is in store. Also, now is the time to ensure air
conditioning is working and/or accessible, if possible,
particularly for inland locations. Perhaps tying the record high
on Sunday? Certainly not out of the realm of possibilities. Once
the ridge moves on out, temps will drop back off closer to normal
for the early part of next week. Lows will respond accordingly,
with the warmest nights occurring on Saturday night and Sunday
night, staying well into the 60s for most.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 127 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2021

VFR TAFs expected at CMX and IWD this period, although there is a
slight chance of brief fog/low cigs at CMX early Thursday morning so
have included a hint there with a low scattered. At SAW,
thunderstorms over the area now will continue to move south away
from the area over the next hour or so. After that, expect VFR TAFs
through the evening. Area of marine fog/low stratus will likely be
advected onshore late tonight with IFR conditions likely Thursday
morning. LIFR is possible as well but given it being far out in the
TAF period kept everything low-end IFR for now. That fog/stratus
will mix out by mid-morning tomorrow leading to a return to VFR
conditions.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 522 AM EDT WED JUN 30 2021

Winds across Lake Superior will remain light today with gusts under
15kt. Later tonight and Thu, northerly winds will increase as high
pres builds s over northern Ontario. Expect gusts up to 20kt
overnight with some gusts to 20-25kt Thu morning over western Lake
Superior. There may also be gusts to 20-25kt over far se Lake
Superior Thu aftn. Winds will settle back Thu night, and with high
pres over the western Great Lakes on Fri, expect gusts under 15kt.
As the high settles southward over the weekend and a low pres trough
approaches from the nw, winds will increase some. Gusts to 15-20kt
will be possible at times, particularly over the w half of the lake.

Some fog will continue to linger today, mainly across central and
eastern Lake Superior. The fog may be locally dense at times.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Dense Fog Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LSZ243>245-
     249>251-264>267.

Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...RJC
MARINE...Rolfson

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
123 PM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021

MIZ005-011-013-301800-
Marquette MI-Delta MI-Dickinson MI-
123 PM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DICKINSON...
NORTHWESTERN DELTA AND SOUTHEASTERN MARQUETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM
EDT/100 PM CDT/...

At 122 PM EDT/1222 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of
strong thunderstorms in southern Marquette County centered near
Gwinn, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Watson, Felch, K. I. Sawyer Airport, Rock, K I Sawyer, Gwinn, U.S. 41
between Trenary and Rapid River, Skandia, St. Nicholas, Ralph,
Perkins, Little Lake, Big Bass Lake, Arnold, Northland, Maplewood,
McFarland, Anderson Lake, Lathrop and Carlshend.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4596 8737 4598 8737 4599 8761 4597 8762
      4597 8784 4634 8783 4644 8728 4622 8711
      4616 8711 4616 8706 4595 8690
TIME...MOT...LOC 1722Z 335DEG 12KT 4629 8742

RJC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
241 PM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021

MIZ005-011>013-301930-
Marquette MI-Delta MI-Dickinson MI-Menominee MI-
241 PM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL DICKINSON...WEST
CENTRAL DELTA...NORTHEASTERN MENOMINEE AND SOUTHERN MARQUETTE
COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT/230 PM CDT/...

At 241 PM EDT/141 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Watson, or 26 miles east of Iron Mountain, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Watson, La Branche, Whitney, Cornell, Schaeffer and Arnold.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4596 8770 4609 8752 4586 8711 4567 8739
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 315DEG 15KT 4597 8754

RJC