Special Weather Statement, NWS Marquette, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
318 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2021

Boundaries galore today as Upper Michigan has seen a few isolated
showers and thunderstorms develop. First was across the central with
remnant outflow from the western MCS late last night. This storm
decayed, leaving an outflow for additional storms to fire on across
Alger County. Finally a few more along the Lake Michigan lake
breeze, which sustained a small cell for a while in Menominee, but
quickly fell apart as lake breeze pushed through. Models are still
suggesting some convection to fire off across the central late this
afternoon. Evidence of the Lake Michigan lake breeze can be seen
across the central, with some cu starting to show up on GOES. A Lake
Superior breeze should be developing soon as well, which should
bring some additional convergence. Depending on what model soundings
you believe (I'm leaning towards the drier solns given lake of
diurnal cu), there is a small cap in play that may need the boundary
to initiate convection. If there's no conv., am thinking there will
be no CI as well. Even if storms to initiate, there's little to no
shear to play with as well to keep these storms going, unless a
storm latches on to a boundary. We should know in the next hour or
so if storms will occur or not.

Tonight, storm development early on will be key to see how long
convection lingers. Cold pool and outflow boundaries will be
required to kick off add'l convection given no upper-level support
and a warm front draped across MN/WI to our south. With some
increased low-level moisture and ongoing fog already over the lakes,
seems like some inland fog will develop tonight, particularly across
the central and east...and with the Keweenaw with some upslope.

For tomorrow, another day that is more or less the same as today and
yesterday. The exception will be as the ridge builds as the warm
front lifts northward, a ridge of sfc high pressure shifts into ern
Ontario, which brings an eastern wind component across the east. Did
lower Tds just a bit that way to account for this, and pcpn isn't
expected either. Models suggest the only chc for pcpn will be across
the wern interior in the afternoon as some add'l lake breezes and
diurnal heating occur.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2021

Continuing with the broad ridging over the eastern two thirds of the
CONUS to start out the extended forecast. A weak wave traveling over
the top of this ridge will conjure up some showers and a few
thunderstorms for Thursday into Friday.

A much better defined short wave will move through southern Canada
over the weekend. Upper Michigan will get strafed by this wave...
again resulting in showers and isolated thunderstorms for
Saturday.

This short wave will help dig a trough over the eastern US with a
pronounced ridge developing over the western plains beginning next
week. So next week appears at this time will be dominated by a large
amplitude pattern that is not very progressive. This doesn't really
help with producing precipitation, but will moderate temperatures
closer to normal.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 143 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2021

VFR conditions should prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW thru this evening.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are still expected to develop
across central Upper Michigan, but most activity is expected to
remain south of SAW, so SAW only has VCTS. Fog looks likely at KCMX
and KSAW tonight with light easterly flow and low-level moisture.
There is some uncertainty on how low vsbys go though. Looks like IFR
is likely at SAW, with MVFR/IFR at CMX. There is an outside chance
at LIFR vsbys at CMX. Some patchy ground fog at IWD is expected as
well.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 256 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2021

Marine fog has developed and is expected to linger through much of
this week as a warm, humid airmass is in place. If any pcpn moves
over the lake, add'l development is likely. Tonight, models suggest
some more fog development as low-level moisture increases. Hard to
say how dense it gets given lake of pcpn. Otherwise winds of 20 kts
or less are expected through the longterm period.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ248-250.

&&

SHORT TERM...JAW
LONG TERM...KFM
AVIATION...JAW
MARINE...JAW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Marquette MI
404 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-092015-
Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce-
Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-
Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft-
404 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021 /304 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper
Michigan and central Upper Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Slight chance of thunderstorms in the south central early.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Hot weather is expected to last through Thurdsay. Take steps to
prevent heat exhaustion when outdoors, and never leave children or
pets in a hot car!

Thunderstorms are possible every day this week, mainly in the
afternoon. Best chance is Friday into Friday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-092015-
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
404 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021 /304 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake
Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Areas of dense fog are possible across th southeastern lake
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Scattered thunderstorms are possible across the lake Wednesday
night into Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LMZ221-248-250-092015-
Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island
Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
404 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Locally dense fog is possible across northern Lake Michigan
outside of the Bay of Green Bay. See the latest Marine Weather
Message for further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

KFM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
429 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

MIZ010-082200-
Iron MI-
429 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN IRON COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM CDT...

At 429 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Stambaugh and Iron River, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Iron River, Crystal Falls, Stambaugh, Caspian, Gaastra, Alpha,
Bewabic State Park, Hagerman Lake, Golden Lake and Mineral Hills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4600 8846 4599 8849 4602 8851 4601 8859
      4602 8860 4599 8862 4599 8866 4602 8869
      4602 8881 4610 8898 4627 8890 4611 8832
      4598 8842
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 301DEG 7KT 4607 8861

Rolfson

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
603 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0457 PM     HAIL             PALMER                  46.44N 87.59W
06/08/2021  E1.00 INCH       MARQUETTE          MI   PUBLIC

            1 INCH TO SLIGHTLY LARGER SIZE HAIL REPORTED
            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA IN THE PALMER AREA.

&&

LG

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