Alert archive / Michigan / Small Craft Advisories in 2021

Small Craft Advisory 103, NWS Marquette, MI

September 14, 2021

NWS Marquette, MI issued this small craft advisory at Sep 14, 2021, 10:40 AM EDT. It took effect at Sep 14, 2021, 12:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 17 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Sep 14, 2021, 10:40 AM EDT (14:40 UTC)
In effect from
Sep 14, 2021, 12:00 PM EDT
Expired
Sep 15, 2021, 5:00 AM EDT
In force
17 hr
Issued by
NWS Marquette, MI

The text

As transmitted.

058 
WHUS73 KMQT 141440
MWWMQT

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
Issued by National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1040 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

LSZ251-142245-
/O.CAN.KMQT.GL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-210914T1600Z/
/O.CON.KMQT.SC.Y.0102.210914T1600Z-210915T0600Z/
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
1040 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and waves 
  4 to 7 ft expected.

* WHERE...Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ267-141545-
/O.CAN.KMQT.GL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-210914T1600Z/
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
1040 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

$$

LMZ221-248-250-142245-
/O.CAN.KMQT.SC.Y.0102.000000T0000Z-210915T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KMQT.SC.Y.0103.210914T1600Z-210915T0100Z/
Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island
Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
1040 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and waves 
  3 to 6 ft expected.

* WHERE...Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock 
  Island Passage, Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI and 5NM 
  East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ241>243-142245-
/O.CAN.KMQT.SC.Y.0102.000000T0000Z-210915T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KMQT.SC.Y.0103.210914T1600Z-210915T0200Z/
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
1040 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021 /940 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021/

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt and waves 
  3 to 5 ft expected.

* WHERE...Black River to Ontonagon MI, Ontonagon to Upper 
  Entrance of Portage Canal MI and Upper Entrance of Portage 
  Canal to Eagle River MI.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ244-245-248-142245-
/O.CAN.KMQT.SC.Y.0102.000000T0000Z-210915T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMQT.SC.Y.0103.210914T1600Z-210915T0000Z/
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
1040 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  waves 3 to 6 ft expected.

* WHERE...Eagle River to Manitou Island MI, Manitou Island to 
  Point Isabelle MI and Huron Islands to Marquette MI.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ246-142100-
/O.CAN.KMQT.SC.Y.0102.000000T0000Z-210914T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KMQT.SC.Y.0103.210914T1600Z-210914T2100Z/
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
1040 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northwest winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt and 
  waves 1 to 4 ft expected.

* WHERE...Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ247-142100-
/O.CAN.KMQT.SC.Y.0102.000000T0000Z-210914T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KMQT.SC.Y.0103.210914T1600Z-210914T2100Z/
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-
1040 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt and 
  waves 1 to 3 ft expected.

* WHERE...Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI 
  Including Keweenaw and Huron Bays.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ249-142245-
/O.CAN.KMQT.SC.Y.0102.000000T0000Z-210915T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KMQT.SC.Y.0103.210914T1600Z-210915T0600Z/
Marquette to Munising MI-
1040 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  waves 3 to 6 ft expected.

* WHERE...Marquette to Munising MI.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ250-142245-
/O.CAN.KMQT.SC.Y.0102.000000T0000Z-210915T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KMQT.SC.Y.0103.210914T1600Z-210915T0600Z/
Munising to Grand Marais MI-
1040 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and waves 
  3 to 6 ft expected.

* WHERE...Munising to Grand Marais MI.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
3 follow-up statements
947 
WHUS73 KMQT 142101
MWWMQT

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
501 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

LSZ246-247-142215-
/O.EXP.KMQT.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-210914T2100Z/
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-
501 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Winds and waves have decreased below advisory criteria.

$$

LSZ250-150515-
/O.EXT.KMQT.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-210915T0900Z/
Munising to Grand Marais MI-
501 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and waves 
  3 to 6 ft occurring.

* WHERE...Munising to Grand Marais MI.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ251-150515-
/O.EXT.KMQT.SC.Y.0102.000000T0000Z-210915T1200Z/
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
501 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and waves 
  3 to 6 ft occurring.

* WHERE...Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ221-248-250-150100-
/O.CON.KMQT.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-210915T0100Z/
Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island
Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
501 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  waves 2 to 5 ft occurring.

* WHERE...5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island 
  Passage, Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI and Green Bay 
  North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island Passage.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ241>243-150200-
/O.CON.KMQT.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-210915T0200Z/
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
501 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021 /401 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021/

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM
CDT/ THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt and 
  waves 3 to 5 ft occurring.

* WHERE...Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI, Upper 
  Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI and Black River to 
  Ontonagon MI.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ244-245-248-150000-
/O.CON.KMQT.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-210915T0000Z/
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
501 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt and waves 
  3 to 5 ft occurring.

* WHERE...Huron Islands to Marquette MI, Manitou Island to Point 
  Isabelle MI and Eagle River to Manitou Island MI.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ249-150515-
/O.CON.KMQT.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-210915T0600Z/
Marquette to Munising MI-
501 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and waves 
  3 to 6 ft occurring.

* WHERE...Marquette to Munising MI.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
841 
WHUS73 KMQT 150147
MWWMQT

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
947 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

LSZ241>243-150300-
/O.EXP.KMQT.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-210915T0200Z/
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
947 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021 /847 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021/

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

Wind gusts and waves have fallen below advisory criteria.

$$

LSZ251-151000-
/O.EXT.KMQT.SC.Y.0102.000000T0000Z-210915T1500Z/
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
947 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt and waves 
  3 to 5 ft occurring.

* WHERE...Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ249-150600-
/O.CON.KMQT.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-210915T0600Z/
Marquette to Munising MI-
947 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt and waves 
  3 to 5 ft occurring.

* WHERE...Marquette to Munising MI.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ250-150900-
/O.CON.KMQT.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-210915T0900Z/
Munising to Grand Marais MI-
947 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and waves 
  3 to 5 ft occurring.

* WHERE...Munising to Grand Marais MI.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
701 
WHUS73 KMQT 150821
MWWMQT

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
421 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021

LSZ250-150930-
/O.CON.KMQT.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-210915T0900Z/
Munising to Grand Marais MI-
421 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY
THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 kt and waves 3 to 5 ft occurring.

* WHERE...Munising to Grand Marais MI.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ251-151500-
/O.CON.KMQT.SC.Y.0102.000000T0000Z-210915T1500Z/
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
421 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 kt and waves 3 to 4 ft occurring.

* WHERE...Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

BW

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Sep 14, 7:55 AM EDT, 2 hours 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 14, 7:55 AM EDT, 2 hours 45 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
755 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 501 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2021

Latest water vapor loop and RAP analysis shows a well-defined and
vigorous shortwave trough over nw WI which is expected to pass east-
northeast across the Upper Great Lakes later this morning into early
afternoon. The associated deepening sfc low with the system is
expected to track from nw WI to Keweenaw Bay by 12Z and then deepen
to near 998 mb over the open waters of eastern Lake Superior before
lifting ne of the lake into Ontario later this afternoon. Out ahead
of the shortwave and low pressure system, strong isentropic lift
concurrent with strong low to mid-level moisture transport and upper
level diffluence has resulted in a expansive area of showers and
scattered t-storms over much of west and north central Upper Mi
early this morning. As the low lifts into Upper Mi and eastern Lake
Superior later this morning, showers/storms will progress eastward
into central and eastern Upper Mi through sunrise ahead of the
system's incoming cold front. RAP and NAM sounding continue to show
a potential from now through sunrise of stronger storms developing
over south central portions of the cwa with elevated CAPE of 500-
1000 j/kg, veering wind profile and effective shear values of 50 kts
or greater as a strong LLJ of 50 kt or greater noses into the area
from the sw. Primary hazards would be hail and some stronger gusty
winds. With PWATs climbing near 1.5 inches, total rainfall amounts
for the event across the region could come in near an inch at
some locations.

With the deepening sfc low, tightening pressure gradient ahead of it
will likely make for some gusty southeast winds early this morning
of 20 to 30 mph over the east half shoreline of the U.P along Lake
Superior. Gusty northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with possible brief
gusts near 35 mph along the Lake Superior shore are also expected in
the wake of the low and its associated cold fropa this afternoon.
Expect most of the showers and t-storms to lift east of the cwa by
this afternoon, but a few model soundings do show some weak
instability this afternoon which could support some lingering
isolated showers over the western U.P. Expect highs today in the
lower to mid 60s northwest half to upper 60s to lower 70s southeast
half under mostly cloudy skies with some partial clearing possible
late.

Expect a weak sfc ridge to move over the area tonight although there
is still enough of the pres gradient lingering to allow w-nw winds
to stir a bit through the night. Under mostly clear skies expect min
temps ranging from the mid 40s interior west to the lower to mid 50s
east and along the Great Lakes shorelines.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 420 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2021

Weak zonal/ridging flow will be present in the upper levels to begin
the forecast on Wednesday. Surface high pressure will be present on
Wednesday through early Thursday, bringing dry and tranquil weather
conditions across Upper Michigan. WAA and ridging aloft will assist
with isentropic ascent/warming in the lower boundary layer overnight
Wednesday into Thursday. 850mb temperatures will increase overnight,
and continue to do so during Thursday. They will range between 6-8
degrees C, and afternoon highs will likely be upwards of 5 to
perhaps 10 degrees F warmer at the surface compared to Wednesday.
Upstream of this WAA for mid-September, an H5 upper level low will
become occluded over the Canadian Provinces on Thursday. With the
attendant surface cyclone occlusion occurring over Manitoba during
the day Thursday, the surface cool front will slowly approach Upper
Michigan on Thursday night and Friday morning. A new triple point
for a surface low will be developing courtesy of lee-side troughing
over the northern plains over the Dakotas Thursday. This surface low
doesn't appear to have much jet energy/dynamics to support a long
window of precipitation on Thursday night into Friday as the surface
low, and subsequent cool front makes its way across Upper Michigan.
Breezy winds will accompany this developing weather system for
Thursday, with several areas likely to see gusts in the 15-25mph
range over land.

Multiple shortwaves embedded within the upper level flow aloft will
continue to moving along the northern stream of jet energy between
Friday and Saturday. Precipitation chances look above average from
Thursday to Saturday, and this lines up nicely with the CPC 6-10 day
outlook. The other aspect to bring to light is that the upper level
flow will trend toward strong upper level ridging across the eastern
tier of the CONUS for the weekend, despite the shortwaves impacting
the Great Lakes. This will assist with WAA bringing above average
surface temperatures for Sunday and Monday of next week. The ECMWF
and GFS are beginning to have a stronger signal for this, with 850mb
temperatures reaching +25C near 0Z Monday. The southerly flow would
certainly assist with localized areas seeing Sunday afternoon highs
in the lower to middle 80s...another brief window of summer-like
temperatures for those who aren't willing to give up on the recent
fall-like temperatures becoming the normal for Upper Michigan just
yet. Monday should be another day of warmer than average high
temperatures, given the current model guidance. But, that may change
by the middle of the week courtesy of a strong cold front...
extended guidance is showing a pronounced H5 longwave trough
developing over southwest tier of the four corners region early next
week. The timing and surface low placement is not being modeled well
at this time, but it does indicate a strong mid-latitude cyclone is
possible to develop across the central and northern CONUS, bringing
much cooler temperatures to the area as CAA pushes southward through
the CONUS. The possible strong cold front is signaling widespread
cooler temperatures by the middle of next week for our cwa. This is
still close to 240 hours out, so we will monitor the guidance in the
coming several days to see how better sampling assists with the
model output.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 736 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2021

A deepening surface low lifting will lift northeast through the
region this morning. Expect any lingering showers to be light and
isolated to scattered this morning. LIFR to IFR cigs should
improve to MVFR this afternoon and then scattered out this evening
with VFR conditions tonight. Winds will be somewhat gusty and
erratic this morning before becoming northwest and gusty this
afternoon. Expect nw winds to gust near 30 knots at times at KCMX
and KSAW late this morning into afternoon. &&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 501 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2021

Vigorous shortwave and associated deepening low pressure system over
nw WI will be progressing east-northeast across the east half of
Lake Superior this morning. Models have been consistent with the low
deepening to near 1000mb over Keweenaw Bay by 12Z this morning and
then further deepening to around 998 mb over eastern Lake Superior
later this morning before lifting into Ontario by mid afternoon.
Tightening pressure gradient ahead of the low will allow for some
south to southeasterly gale force gusts to 40 kts across the far
eastern end of the lake this morning where a gale warning is
currently posted. A brief northwest gale in the wake of the low will
also be possible later this morning into the afternoon hours.
Elsewhere in the east half, some gale force gusts to 35kts will be
possible, mainly for higher reporting platforms.

High pressure will build in afterwards, allowing winds to settle to
near 15 knots by Wednesday morning. Southerly winds are expected to
increase again to 20 to 30 knots later Wed night into Thu evening as
the next low pressure trough approaches from the west. Would not be
surprised to see gale force gusts to 35 knots at times over the
higher platforms of the east half of the lake during this period.
Relatively light winds are expected to return on Friday as the weak
trough passes and high pressure builds in behind it.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ005-006-014.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until noon EDT today for LSZ251-267.

Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...Voss
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 14, 4:19 AM EDT, 6 hours 21 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Marquette MI
419 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

MIZ001>004-007-009>013-084-085-150830-
Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Luce-Gogebic-Iron-
Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft-
419 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021 /319 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper
Michigan and central Upper Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance for thunderstorms this morning for the east half
of Upper Michigan. A slight chance of a stronger thunderstorm
with hail developing south central early this morning is also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorms are possible Thursday night across western Upper
Michigan.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

MIZ005-006-150830-
Marquette-Alger-
419 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Upper
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance for thunderstorms this morning.

A high swim risk is expected through this evening for Lake
Superior beaches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

MIZ014-150830-
Southern Schoolcraft-
419 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Upper
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance for thunderstorms this morning.

There is a high swim risk for Lake Michigan beaches today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-150830-
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
419 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021 /319 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake
Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Southeast gales to 35-40 knots are likely this morning across far
eastern Lake Superior. Northwest gales to 35 knots are possible
across the east half of Lake Superior this afternoon. See the
latest Marine Weather Message for details.

There is a chance for thunderstorms this morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LMZ221-248-250-150830-
Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island
Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
419 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance for thunderstorms this morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

BW

In the hours before

Local storm report, Sep 14, 7:20 AM EDT, 3 hours 20 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
720 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PAULDING                46.40N 89.18W
09/14/2021  M1.93 INCH       ONTONAGON          MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION PDGM4 PAULDING.

&&

BMW
Local storm report, Sep 14, 7:21 AM EDT, 3 hours 19 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
721 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NNW WATTON            46.60N 88.63W
09/14/2021  M1.21 INCH       BARAGA             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION BPLM4 4 NNW WATTON.

&&

BMW
Local storm report, Sep 14, 7:22 AM EDT, 3 hours 18 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
722 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW MARQUETTE         46.54N 87.40W
09/14/2021  M1.09 INCH       MARQUETTE          MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION EW7933 MARQUETTE.

&&

BMW
Local storm report, Sep 14, 7:23 AM EDT, 3 hours 17 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
723 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 SE BIG BAY            46.74N 87.65W
09/14/2021  M1.00 INCH       MARQUETTE          MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION CW9114 HALFWAY BIG BAY RD.

&&

BMW
Local storm report, Sep 14, 7:24 AM EDT, 3 hours 16 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
724 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       11 WSW WATERSMEET       46.22N 89.41W
09/14/2021  M2.22 INCH       GOGEBIC            MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION WTRM4 WATERSMEET 12
            WSW.

&&

BMW
Local storm report, Sep 14, 7:25 AM EDT, 3 hours 15 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
725 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SE CHATHAM            46.33N 86.92W
09/14/2021  M2.10 INCH       ALGER              MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION CTMM4 0.9 SE CHATHAM.

&&

BMW

The office that day

Everything else NWS Marquette, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 14, 4:26 AM EDTBeach Hazards StatementMQTAlger, Marquette, Schoolcraft7 hr
Sep 14, 4:46 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMQTAlger44 min
Sep 14, 5:13 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMQTAlger, Schoolcraft77 min
Sep 14, 5:26 AM EDTSpecial Marine WarningMQT64 min
Sep 14, 11:14 AM EDTBeach Hazards StatementMQTAlger, Marquette, Schoolcraft9 hr

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Michigan, 2021Every small craft advisory in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.