Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Marquette, MI

951 
WWUS53 KMQT 110223
SVSMQT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1023 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021

MIC083-110300-
/O.CON.KMQT.SV.W.0060.000000T0000Z-211011T0300Z/
Keweenaw MI-
1023 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
FOR KEWEENAW COUNTY...

At 1022 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Isle Royale 
near Mount Desor, or near Siskiwit Lake, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Siskiwit Lake, and much of Isle Royale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4806 8851 4802 8858 4786 8891 4798 8911
      4809 8898 4819 8871
TIME...MOT...LOC 0222Z 221DEG 28KT 4799 8894 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

RJC

327 
WWUS53 KMQT 110238
SVSMQT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1038 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021

MIC083-110246-
/O.CAN.KMQT.SV.W.0060.000000T0000Z-211011T0300Z/
Keweenaw MI-
1038 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR KEWEENAW COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has 
been cancelled. Additional thunderstorms will move across the 
eastern half of Isle Royale, but they are expected to remain below 
severe limits.

LAT...LON 4806 8851 4802 8858 4786 8891 4798 8911
      4809 8898 4819 8871
TIME...MOT...LOC 0234Z 224DEG 24KT 4806 8884 

$$

RJC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
745 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT SUN OCT 10 2021

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low near Fargo this
morning with a southern trough in the southern Rockies and a trough
in the Pacific NW. This low opens up and heads northeast to north of
Lake Superior and the southern system closes off and heads northeast
to the upper Mississippi River Valley by 00z Tue. Deeper moisture
remains over the area through the forecast period along with some
weak 850-500 mb q-vector convergence. Confidence is low with this
forecast as convection is elevated and not picked up well by the
models. With airmass being unstable in the mid levels, elevated
convection will continue to be possible and will broadbrush pops for
this reason. Will go with low chance pops for now. Otherwise, did
not make too many changes to the going forecast for temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 354 PM EDT SUN OCT 10 2021

An active weather pattern will persist across the CONUS for the long
term forecast, bringing multiple waves of precipitation to the Great
Lakes. Temperatures will trend toward above average readings for the
first half of the extended forecast, with cooler temperatures
anticipated for the second half of the extended forecast as Upper
Michigan begins to see seasonal averages for our cwa. Precipitation
is expected to remain as rainfall for the extended forecast package,
however, the synoptic forced precipitation will transition towards a
possible lake enhanced effect by next weekend as the warm lake
temperatures assist with localized rainfall.

Monday night will begin with a negatively tilted trough over the
Upper Midwest quickly swinging to the north, and bringing widespread
rain showers to a majority of the UP. Deterministic guidance is
bringing the precipitation slightly further to the west in
comparison with previous model guidances 24-48 hours ago. However,
any thundershower activity is still anticipated to remain across the
central and eastern portions of Upper Michigan. Cloud cover will
persist over the region, in addition to WAA being mixed down from
850mb to the surface for Tuesday. 850mb temperatures of 9-13C will
combine with southerly flow ahead of a weak surface cold front.
Overnight lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s are likely by Tuesday
morning, especially over the east. The surface low will trek ne from
WI to Upper Michigan on Tuesday, causing the widespread rain
showers. CAA will be weak, although noticeable for the west half on
Tuesday as the cool air wraps around behind the surface low and
frontal boundary. Temperatures will be hard to rise throughout the
day on Tuesday due to continued cloud cover, mostly in the 60s.

The cooler air aloft will be short-lived as the upper air pattern
quickly shifts to an amplifying ridge over the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Because of this
setup, temperatures are not expected to remain cool Wednesday.
Onshore flow via surface high pressure will likely keep cover over
portions of the UP, but dry air will advect into the region
throughout the day, causing an uptick in temperatures. Above average
readings in the 60s to lower 70s are likely once again as 850mb
temperatures range from 9-13C. While we have surface high pressure
moving across the Great Lakes from Tuesday night to Wednesday night,
a strong mid-latitude cyclone will develop via lee-side cyclogenesis
east of the Rocky Mountains. This weather system is progged to
remain to our west with regard to the heaviest precipitation, over
the Northern Plains and into Manitoba/Ontario. However, the
evolution of the surface low pressure will have a cold front
bringing precipitation to the area by Thursday morning.

From Thursday into Friday, the ULL associated with the eventual
occlusion of the surface low will continue to slowly propagate
toward James Bay. It is likely that several shortwaves will
propagate along the deeper trough that will extend further south
toward the Central Plains. The energy associated with the shortwaves
and ULL axis will bring another opportunity for rain showers to
Upper Michigan on Friday,and into the weekend. Additionally, there
will be a strong push of cold air as the surface cold FROPA occurs
across the UP. This will bring much cooler temperatures to the area,
with areas seeing highs potentially in the 40s to middle 50s. Went
with a conservative forecast for temperatures decreasing, by bumping
down the NBM guidance 2-3 degrees at this time. The warm lake
temperatures combined with much colder air aloft at 850mb between 0
to -4C will assist with lake enhanced initiation of precipitation.
This will be a welcomed relief to those that have been hoping for
fall-like temperatures to remain over the area. However, we are not
anticipating frozen precipitation just yet. We will continue to
monitor the long term ensemble members and deterministic guidance in
the event that colder air becomes more probable over the area.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 745 PM EDT SUN OCT 10 2021

A low pressure system over the Boundary Waters is dragging a cold
front across the area tonight. Ahead of the front, gusty southerly
winds are expected, with a short period of LLWS at CMX as well. With
the frontal passage there could be a few showers/storms, but so far
radar shows coverage is very limited. Thus, only have VCSH and VCTS
mentions in the TAFs. Less confident about what happens at IWD and
CMX behind the front late tonight where model guidance shows some
low clouds possible. Went with MVFR cigs in the IWD TAF and just a
scattered deck in the CMX TAF, but could very well end up being
alternating scattered/broken at both terminals. Conditions should
remain steady-state from early Monday morning through Monday
evening; occasionally MVFR at IWD/CMX and VFR at SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 319 PM EDT SUN OCT 10 2021

Winds will be up to 30 knots tonight and then drop to below 20 knots
on Monday afternoon and stay that way into Tue afternoon when they
increase to 15 to 25 knots. Next time for stronger wind would be
late on Wed when the southeast wind gets up to 30 knots Wed night.
The wind then goes to 15 to 25 knots on Thu into Fri.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...RJC
MARINE...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Marquette MI
348 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021

MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-112000-
Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce-
Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-
Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft-
348 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 /248 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper
Michigan and central Upper Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening. A stronger
storm or two is possible with small hail and gusty winds being the
primary hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday
across central and eastern Upper Michigan.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-112000-
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
348 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 /248 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake
Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening. A stronger
storm or two is possible with small hail and gusty winds being the
primary hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday
across central and eastern Upper Michigan.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LMZ221-248-250-112000-
Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island
Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
348 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening. A stronger
storm or two is possible with small hail and gusty winds being the
primary hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday
across central and eastern Upper Michigan.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

BW