Gale Watch 4, NWS Marquette, MI

480 
WHUS73 KMQT 011552
MWWMQT

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1052 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

LSZ249>251-266-267-020000-
/O.CON.KMQT.GL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-210302T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMQT.UP.W.0005.000000T0000Z-210302T0600Z/
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
1052 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning, heavy freezing 
  spray at a rate of 2 cm per hour or greater occurring, and may 
  rapidly accumulate on vessels. For the Gale Warning, northwest 
  winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and waves 8 to 13 ft 
  occurring.

* WHERE...Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point 
  MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border, Lake Superior East 
  of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI and West of a 
  line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border Beyond 5NM 
  from shore, Marquette to Munising MI, Munising to Grand Marais 
  MI and Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI.

* WHEN...For the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning, until 1 AM EST 
  Tuesday. For the Gale Warning, until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in heavy freezing spray is 
  hazardous. Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic 
  components inoperative. Rapid ice accretion on decks and 
  superstructures may result in a catastrophic loss of 
  stability. Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should prepare for dangerous accumulation of ice on
their vessel. If possible, remain in port, avoid the warning area
or conduct mitigation.

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ243>248-264-265-020000-
/O.CON.KMQT.GL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-210301T1800Z/
/O.CON.KMQT.UP.W.0005.000000T0000Z-210302T0600Z/
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
1052 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning, heavy freezing 
  spray at a rate of 2 cm per hour or greater occurring, and may 
  rapidly accumulate on vessels. For the Gale Warning, northwest 
  winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and waves 5 to 8 ft 
  occurring.

* WHERE...Portions of Central and Western Lake Superior.

* WHEN...For the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning, until 1 AM EST 
  Tuesday. For the Gale Warning, until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in heavy freezing spray is 
  hazardous. Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic 
  components inoperative. Rapid ice accretion on decks and 
  superstructures may result in a catastrophic loss of 
  stability. Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should prepare for dangerous accumulation of ice on
their vessel. If possible, remain in port, avoid the warning area
or conduct mitigation.

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ162-240>242-263-020000-
/O.CON.KMQT.UP.W.0005.000000T0000Z-210302T0000Z/
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
1052 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 /952 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021/

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
/6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy freezing spray at a rate of 2 cm per hour or 
  greater occurring, and may rapidly accumulate on vessels.

* WHERE...Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to 
  Grand Portage MN beyond 5NM, Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of 
  Portage Canal MI, Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper 
  Entrance to Portage Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian 
  border including Isle Royale National Park, Black River to 
  Ontonagon MI and Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in heavy freezing spray is 
  hazardous. Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic 
  components inoperative. Rapid ice accretion on decks and 
  superstructures may result in a catastrophic loss of stability.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should prepare for dangerous accumulation of ice on
their vessel. If possible, remain in port, avoid the warning area
or conduct mitigation.

&&

$$

LMZ248-250-020000-
/O.CON.KMQT.SC.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-210301T2100Z/
/O.CON.KMQT.GL.A.0004.210302T1400Z-210303T0000Z/
Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
1052 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest winds 15 to 20 
  kt with gusts up to 30 kt occurring. For the Gale Watch, 
  southwest winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and waves 7 
  to 10 ft possible.

* WHERE...5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island 
  Passage and Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 4 PM EST this 
  afternoon. For the Gale Watch, from Tuesday morning through 
  Tuesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

840 
WHUS73 KMQT 012145
MWWMQT

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
445 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

LSZ162-240>242-263-020545-
/O.EXT.KMQT.UP.W.0005.000000T0000Z-210302T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KMQT.GL.W.0007.210302T1200Z-210302T2200Z/
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
445 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 /345 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021/

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST
/8 AM CST/ TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TO 5 PM EST
/4 PM CST/ TUESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning, heavy freezing 
  spray at a rate of 2 cm per hour or greater occurring, and may 
  rapidly accumulate on vessels. For the Gale Warning, southwest 
  winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and waves 7 to 10 ft 
  expected.

* WHERE...Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to 
  Grand Portage MN beyond 5NM, Saxon Harbor WI to Black River 
  MI, Black River to Ontonagon MI, Ontonagon to Upper Entrance 
  of Portage Canal MI and Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to 
  Upper Entrance to Portage Canal MI 5NM off shore to the 
  US/Canadian border including Isle Royale National Park.

* WHEN...For the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning, until 9 AM EST /8 
  AM CST/ Tuesday. For the Gale Warning, from 7 AM EST /6 AM 
  CST/ to 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in heavy freezing spray is
  hazardous. Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic
  components inoperative. Rapid ice accretion on decks and
  superstructures may result in a catastrophic loss of stability.
  Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or
  damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should prepare for dangerous accumulation of ice on
their vessel. If possible, remain in port, avoid the warning area
or conduct mitigation.

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ243-244-264-020545-
/O.EXT.KMQT.UP.W.0005.000000T0000Z-210302T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KMQT.GL.W.0007.210302T1200Z-210302T2200Z/
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
445 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST
TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning, heavy freezing 
  spray at a rate of 2 cm per hour or greater occurring, and may 
  rapidly accumulate on vessels. For the Gale Warning, southwest 
  winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and waves 6 to 11 ft 
  expected.

* WHERE...Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI, 
  Eagle River to Manitou Island MI and Lake Superior from Upper 
  Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou Island MI 5NM off shore 
  to the US/Canadian Border.

* WHEN...For the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning, until 9 AM EST 
  Tuesday. For the Gale Warning, from 7 AM to 5 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in heavy freezing spray is 
  hazardous. Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic 
  components inoperative. Rapid ice accretion on decks and 
  superstructures may result in a catastrophic loss of 
  stability. Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should prepare for dangerous accumulation of ice on
their vessel. If possible, remain in port, avoid the warning area
or conduct mitigation.

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ248-250-020545-
/O.UPG.KMQT.GL.A.0004.210302T1400Z-210303T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMQT.GL.W.0007.210302T1400Z-210303T0000Z/
Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
445 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and 
  waves 7 to 10 ft expected.

* WHERE...Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI and 5NM East of a 
  line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ249>251-266-267-020545-
/O.EXT.KMQT.UP.W.0005.000000T0000Z-210302T1400Z/
/O.CON.KMQT.GL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-210302T0000Z/
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
445 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST
TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning, heavy freezing 
  spray at a rate of 2 cm per hour or greater occurring, and may 
  rapidly accumulate on vessels. For the Gale Warning, northwest 
  winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and waves 7 to 11 ft 
  occurring.

* WHERE...Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point 
  MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border, Lake Superior East 
  of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI and West of a 
  line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border Beyond 5NM 
  from shore, Marquette to Munising MI, Munising to Grand Marais 
  MI and Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI.

* WHEN...For the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning, until 9 AM EST 
  Tuesday. For the Gale Warning, until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in heavy freezing spray is 
  hazardous. Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic 
  components inoperative. Rapid ice accretion on decks and 
  superstructures may result in a catastrophic loss of 
  stability. Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should prepare for dangerous accumulation of ice on
their vessel. If possible, remain in port, avoid the warning area
or conduct mitigation.

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ245>248-265-020545-
/O.EXT.KMQT.UP.W.0005.000000T0000Z-210302T1400Z/
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
445 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy freezing spray at a rate of 2 cm per hour or 
  greater occurring, and may rapidly accumulate on vessels.

* WHERE...Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to 
  Marquette MI Beyond 5NM from shore, Huron Islands to Marquette 
  MI, Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI, Lower Entrance of 
  Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including Keweenaw and Huron 
  Bays and Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in heavy freezing spray is 
  hazardous. Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic 
  components inoperative. Rapid ice accretion on decks and 
  superstructures may result in a catastrophic loss of stability.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should prepare for dangerous accumulation of ice on
their vessel. If possible, remain in port, avoid the warning area
or conduct mitigation.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
506 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 505 AM EST MON MAR 1 2021

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a mid-level ridge over the
western U.S. and western Canada. Downstream, a sharp trof is
dropping across northern Ontario and the northern Great Lakes. A
brief surge of arctic air follows. Latest RAP analysis has 850mb
temps at -25C just nw of Lake Superior, and sfc obs show temps down
around 0F across ne MN. Forcing from the shortwave has led to fairly
widespread lake enhanced snow since late last evening. With a low
inversion at about 885mb and dry air mass noted on the upstream 00z
KINL sounding, -shsn have struggled off western Lake Superior, at
least closer to the shore. However, aided by upsloping, there have
been some impressive LES streamers at times farther inland across
Baraga County/northern Iron into Marquette County. Radar returns of
+28dbz suggest very brief bursts of hvy snow have been occurring.
These -shsn have been extending into northern Menominee and Delta
counties as well. Recent satellite imagery shows lake effect cloud
banding improving over western Lake Superior as increasingly colder
air arrives. While there are some areas of ice out over western Lake
Superior, the ice areas are very likely busted up, largely rubble
ice fields that have no significant impact on heat/moisture fluxes
off the lake unlike large unbroken ice sheets which essentially cut
the fluxes off. To the e, LES coverage is settling back a bit from
the greater coverage of a few hrs ago. Similar to the w, some very
brief bursts of hvy snow are occurring as noted by 28+ dbz echoes.

Expect some increase in LES coverage off western Lake Superior over
the next several hrs as 850mb thermal troffing arrives. The LES will
be light given the upstream air mass as noted previously by the 00z
KINL sounding. The -shsn will then end early this aftn due to the
start of waa, increasingly anticyclonic flow and daytime heating,
which at this time of year becomes an increasing negative for LES as
it disrupts lake effect processes. To the e, expect nmrs shsn off
Lake Superior today, peaking during the morning hrs before inversion
begins to fall. Increasingly anticyclonic flow developing this aftn
will also aid a diminishing trend during the aftn. So far, LES off
eastern Lake Superior is not well organized. Provided organization
improves over the next several hrs, shifting winds today would
probably prevent any stationary bands for a long enough time to
support headline worthy snow accumulations. Most of the CAMs have
the strongest signal for enhanced convergence over far eastern Lake
Superior into the Whitefish Pt vcnty. So, roughly the ne half of
Luce County has the best chc of seeing a fluffy 2-4 inches of snow
today. Westward thru Alger County, expect 1 to locally 3 inches of
snow. Will be a cold first day of March with high temps basically 10
to 20F, coldest across the Keweenaw and n central. Strong nw winds
across eastern Lake Superior will build waves to 10-14 feet this
morning. If there are any shoreline stretches in Alger/Luce counties
which do not have significant windrowed ice along the shore, the
high waves will cause some minor beach erosion and lakeshore
flooding.

Sfc high pres will move from its current position over southern
Manitoba to the Ohio Valley by sunrise Tue. As low-level winds
continue to back, lingering LES over the eastern fcst area will
shift offshore near or shortly after midnight. Although the high
pres center passes sw of Upper MI this evening, there will be a
period of light winds and mostly clear skies to allow temps to
tumble quickly. Favored some of the colder guidance with temps
approaching -10F centered over Iron County. Fresh snow cover should
also aid the cooling. In general, much of the interior should see
temps slip to around or just blo 0F. Then, some increase in winds
overnight combined with increasing waa/isentropic ascent generated
high/mid clouds will lead to rising temps.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 420 AM EST MON MAR 1 2021

Tuesday will start off quite cold due to the mostly clear skies and
recent snowfall being present. Temperatures will likely be subzero
for several areas to start on Tuesday morning, with areas furthest
in the east and over the Keweenaw Peninsula seeing the positive
single digits. One positive to note is that as a shortwave
disturbance aloft propagating toward the region north of Lake
Superior will assist with WAA. An upper level shortwave trough
will quickly move east over Manitoba, assisting with the
development of a surface low, into Ontario during Tuesday. Wind
gusts from the tightening pressure and temperature gradients will
increase Tuesday over Upper Michigan and Lake Michigan.
Isentropic ascent and warming aloft in the lower portion of the
atmosphere at 850mb will help with sw flow creating a decent
recovery in temperatures for daytime maximums. Could see afternoon
highs recover nicely in the south central and western half of the
CWA by 40 to 50 degrees where the coldest morning lows will be
observed. The gusty sw winds are expected to be gale force over
the lakes, and breezy conditions are likely over Upper Michigan.
The gusty winds will assist with surface convergence of airflow
off the Upper Michigan area toward the Canadian Province side of
Lake Superior. Lake enhanced precipitation may occur from Lake
Michigan in the eastern portion of the CWA, so put in a slight
PoPs for rain/snow showers. The main swath of precipitation from
the surface low will stay north of the area as it propagates to
the east toward Quebec Tuesday night into Wednesday.

A surface cold front from the departing surface low over Ontario and
Quebec will advance south over the CWA from Wednesday morning to
afternoon. Additionally, there will be a ripple in the upper level
flow as this occurs due to decreasing heights aloft. This will cause
temperatures to be slightly cooler for the northern half of the
forecast area on Wednesday, with temperatures remaining somewhat
stationary in the Copper Country and slightly more mild toward the
WI/MI state border. Would not be surprised to see a few flurries
occur as this colder air spreads further south through the day.
850mb temperatures will likely be warmer than -8C behind this
weak cold air advection, so the DGZ will not be maximized.

Wednesday night into Thursday will see upper level ridging begin to
occur over the Central CONUS stretching into British Columbia.
This will create nw flow aloft, and another ripple embedded within
the flow as a weak shortwave will create the chance for additional
clouds and a low possibility for precipitation. 850mb temperatures
look to be slightly colder aloft as another push of CAA occurs by
Thursday morning. 850mb temperatures could drop down to negative 12C
to negative 15C, which would be indicative of some surface LES
enhanced snow showers and flurries for the nw wind snow belts. As
the remainder of Thursday pans out, the upper level ridge will
build from the Central CONUS toward the western Great Lakes
region. This will assist with surface temperatures likely going
above the freezing mark for the western half of the CWA, but cloud
cover will limit daytime highs in the east half of the CWA to the
mid to upper 20s as possible light LES persist.

The ridge axis will remain semi-stationary from Thursday night into
Saturday. This upper level ridge pattern is signaling toward an
anomalously warmer trend for the Central CONUS. The amplified wave
and ridge pattern will create continued nw flow aloft. This will
continue the trend of embedded shortwaves propagating along the
eastern half of the ridge axis over the northern Great Lakes area.
It will be interesting to see how the models handle this extended
period. The continued shortwaves riding along this nw flow may
assist in creating several rounds of lake enhanced precipitation,
albeit light, over the nw wind snowbelts of eastern half of our CWA.
Nonetheless, the ridge axis is progged to shift east over the Great
Lakes Sunday into Monday. This would help the region see very mild
temperatures if it comes to pass, potentially 50+ degrees for
several areas. The remainder of the extended forecast period shows
different solutions, one being the northern stream of jet energy
pushing the ridge further east, and bringing additional chances of
cooler temperatures and precipitation. Overall, the gradual
warming trend looks to continue for the extended period, with
above average chances of precipitation as well.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1218 AM EST MON MAR 1 2021

Much colder air moving into the region on northwest winds will
support light lake effect snow showers with mainly MVFR or near MVFR
cigs. Winds will also be gusty enough at KCMX, 30-35 mph, to produce
blsn which may also occasionally reduce vsby into the MVFR range. A
drier air mass is expected to move in this afternoon with cigs
improving to VFR at all terminals.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 505 AM EST MON MAR 1 2021

NW gales of 35-40kt over much of Lake Superior will gradually
diminish to blo gale force from w to e today into early this
evening. This morning, some gusts may reach as high as 45kt across
portions of central and eastern Lake Superior. The strong winds,
high waves and much colder air moving across the area will lead to
hvy freezing spray as well. Late tonight and Tue, southwest winds
will ramp up to 30kt. SW gales of 35-40kt may occur on Tue, mainly
up the w half of Lake Superior. A sfc trof will then drop s across
Lake Superior Tue night with winds settling back to mostly blo 20kt
for Wed. Winds should then remain mostly under 20kt thru Thu. Winds
may increase a bit on Fri across eastern Lake Superior.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for
     MIZ006-007.

Lake Superior...
  Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for
     LSZ243>251-264>267.

  Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ249>251-266-267.

  Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ243>248-264-
     265.

  Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this
     evening for LSZ162-240>242-263.

  Gale Warning until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
     LSZ240>242-263.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     LMZ248-250.

&&

SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...Rolfson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Marquette MI
318 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

MIZ001>006-009>011-084-012030-
Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-
Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Southern Houghton-
318 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 /218 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper
Michigan and central Upper Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Today and Tonight

A quick-moving winter storm will continue bringing several inches
of heavy, wet snow and dense fog through this evening. See the
latest Winter Weather Advisory for additional details.

Colder weather is expected to move into the region tonight. This
will be accompanied by lake effect snow and blowing snow in the
northwest wind snow belts tonight.

Waves on the east half of Lake Superior will build to 10 to 12
feet this evening. The high waves could lead to some minor beach
erosion and localized lakeshore flooding along the Lake Superior
beaches in Alger county where substantial, windrowed shoreline
ice is not present. See the latest Lakeshore Flood Advisory for
additional details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Colder weather is expected to remain over the region Monday. This
will be accompanied by lake effect snow and blowing snow in the
northwest wind snow belts, mainly east of Munising.

Waves on the east half of Lake Superior will build to 10 to 14
feet Monday morning. The high waves could lead to some minor
beach erosion and localized lakeshore flooding along the Lake
Superior beaches in Alger County where substantial, windrowed
shoreline ice is not present. See the latest Lakeshore Flood
Advisory for additional details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to submit snowfall reports to the National
Weather Service via phone, on our website, or through Facebook or
Twitter using #906wx.

MIZ007-012>014-085-012030-
Luce-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-Northern Schoolcraft-
318 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 /218 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Upper
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Today and Tonight

Snow, possibly mixed with rain east, will continue this afternoon
and evening. This could lead to a few inches of wet, slushy snow
accumulation. This snow could make for slippery driving
conditions.

Waves on the east half of Lake Superior will build to 10 to 12
feet this evening. The high waves could lead to some minor beach
erosion and localized lakeshore flooding along the Lake Superior
beaches in Luce county where substantial, windrowed shoreline ice
is not present. See the latest Lakeshore Flood Advisory for
additional details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Waves on the east half of Lake Superior will build to 10 to 14
feet Monday morning. The high waves could lead to some minor
beach erosion and localized lakeshore flooding along the Lake
Superior beaches in Luce County where substantial, windrowed
shoreline ice is not present. See the latest Lakeshore Flood
Advisory for additional details.

Waves on Lake Michigan will likely build to 8 to 10 feet on
Tuesday afternoon and evening, which could lead to some minor
beach erosion and localized lakeshore flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to submit snowfall reports to the National
Weather Service via phone, on our website, or through Facebook or
Twitter using #906wx.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-012030-
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
318 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 /218 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake
Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Today and Tonight

Northwest gales of 35 to 40 knots are likely this evening across
the east half of Lake Superior. A colder airmass will move into
the region tonight, making heavy freezing spray likely lake-wide
tonight. See the latest Open Lake Forecast and Marine Weather
Statement for additional details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Northwest gales of 35 to 45 knots are likely Monday across the
eastern half of Lake Superior. Heavy freezing spray is also
likely during this time period as well.

Southwest gales of 35 to 40 knots are possible on Tuesday across
much of Lake Superior.

See the latest Open Lake Forecast and Marine Weather Message for
further details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LMZ221-248-250-012030-
Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island
Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
318 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Today and Tonight

Some gale force gust to 35 knots are possible early this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Some northwest gale force gusts to 35 knots are possible on
Monday.

Southwest gales of 35 to 40 knots are possible on Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

JP