Gale Watch 3, NWS Marquette, MI

166 
WHUS73 KMQT 271454
MWWMQT

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
954 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

LSZ249>251-266-267-272300-
/O.CON.KMQT.GL.W.0006.210228T2000Z-210302T0000Z/
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
954 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and 
  waves 8 to 13 ft expected.

* WHERE...Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point 
  MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border, Lake Superior East 
  of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI and West of a 
  line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border Beyond 5NM 
  from shore, Marquette to Munising MI, Munising to Grand Marais 
  MI and Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ240>242-263-272300-
/O.CON.KMQT.GL.A.0003.210301T0600Z-210301T1600Z/
Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
954 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021 /854 AM CST Sat Feb 27 2021/

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and 
  waves 3 to 6 ft possible.

* WHERE...Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance 
  to Portage Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border 
  including Isle Royale National Park, Ontonagon to Upper 
  Entrance of Portage Canal MI, Black River to Ontonagon MI and 
  Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI.

* WHEN...From late Sunday night through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LSZ243>248-264-265-272300-
/O.CON.KMQT.GL.A.0003.210301T0600Z-210301T1800Z/
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
954 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and 
  waves 6 to 9 ft possible.

* WHERE...Portions of Central and Western Lake Superior.

* WHEN...From late Sunday night through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

128 
WHUS73 KMQT 272143
MWWMQT

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
443 PM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

LSZ249>251-266-267-280545-
/O.CON.KMQT.GL.W.0006.210228T2000Z-210302T0000Z/
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
443 PM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and 
  waves 7 to 12 ft expected.

* WHERE...Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point 
  MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border, Lake Superior East 
  of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI and West of a 
  line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border Beyond 5NM 
  from shore, Marquette to Munising MI, Munising to Grand Marais 
  MI and Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ240>242-263-280545-
/O.CON.KMQT.GL.A.0003.210301T0600Z-210301T1600Z/
Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
443 PM EST Sat Feb 27 2021 /343 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021/

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  waves 2 to 5 ft possible.

* WHERE...Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance 
  to Portage Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border 
  including Isle Royale National Park, Ontonagon to Upper 
  Entrance of Portage Canal MI, Black River to Ontonagon MI and 
  Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI.

* WHEN...From late Sunday night through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LSZ243>248-264-265-280545-
/O.CON.KMQT.GL.A.0003.210301T0600Z-210301T1800Z/
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
443 PM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and 
  waves 4 to 7 ft possible.

* WHERE...Portions of Central and Western Lake Superior.

* WHEN...From late Sunday night through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

870 
WHUS73 KMQT 280248
MWWMQT

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
948 PM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

LSZ249>251-266-267-281100-
/O.CON.KMQT.GL.W.0006.210228T2000Z-210302T0000Z/
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
948 PM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and 
  waves 7 to 12 ft expected.

* WHERE...Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point 
  MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border, Lake Superior East 
  of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI and West of a 
  line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border Beyond 5NM 
  from shore, Marquette to Munising MI, Munising to Grand Marais 
  MI and Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ240>242-263-281100-
/O.CON.KMQT.GL.A.0003.210301T0600Z-210301T1600Z/
Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
948 PM EST Sat Feb 27 2021 /848 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021/

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  waves 2 to 5 ft possible.

* WHERE...Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance 
  to Portage Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border 
  including Isle Royale National Park, Ontonagon to Upper 
  Entrance of Portage Canal MI, Black River to Ontonagon MI and 
  Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI.

* WHEN...From late Sunday night through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LSZ243>248-264-265-281100-
/O.CON.KMQT.GL.A.0003.210301T0600Z-210301T1800Z/
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
948 PM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and 
  waves 4 to 7 ft possible.

* WHERE...Portions of Central and Western Lake Superior.

* WHEN...From late Sunday night through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

852 
WHUS73 KMQT 280944
MWWMQT

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
444 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

LSZ240>242-263-281745-
/O.NEW.KMQT.UP.W.0005.210301T0000Z-210301T2000Z/
/O.UPG.KMQT.GL.A.0003.210301T0600Z-210301T1600Z/
/O.EXB.KMQT.GL.W.0006.210301T0900Z-210301T1500Z/
Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
444 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 /344 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021/

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM
CST/ THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST /2 PM CST/ MONDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 10 AM EST
/9 AM CST/ MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning, heavy freezing 
  spray at a rate of 2 cm per hour or greater expected, and may 
  rapidly accumulate on vessels. For the Gale Warning, northwest 
  winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and waves 4 to 7 ft 
  expected.

* WHERE...Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI, Black River to 
  Ontonagon MI, Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI 
  and Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to 
  Portage Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border 
  including Isle Royale National Park.

* WHEN...For the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning, from 7 PM EST /6 
  PM CST/ this evening to 3 PM EST /2 PM CST/ Monday. For the 
  Gale Warning, from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ to 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ 
  Monday.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in heavy freezing spray is 
  hazardous. Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic 
  components inoperative. Rapid ice accretion on decks and 
  superstructures may result in a catastrophic loss of 
  stability. Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should prepare for dangerous accumulation of ice on
their vessel. If possible, remain in port, avoid the warning area
or conduct mitigation.

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ243>248-264-265-281745-
/O.NEW.KMQT.UP.W.0005.210301T0300Z-210302T0200Z/
/O.UPG.KMQT.GL.A.0003.210301T0600Z-210301T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KMQT.GL.W.0006.210301T0600Z-210301T1800Z/
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
444 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 9 PM EST MONDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning, heavy freezing 
  spray at a rate of 2 cm per hour or greater expected, and may 
  rapidly accumulate on vessels. For the Gale Warning, northwest 
  winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and waves 6 to 9 ft 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Central and Western Lake Superior.

* WHEN...For the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning, from 10 PM this 
  evening to 9 PM EST Monday. For the Gale Warning, from 1 AM to 
  1 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in heavy freezing spray is
  hazardous. Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic
  components inoperative. Rapid ice accretion on decks and
  superstructures may result in a catastrophic loss of stability.
  Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or
  damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should prepare for dangerous accumulation of ice on
their vessel. If possible, remain in port, avoid the warning area
or conduct mitigation.

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ249>251-266-267-281745-
/O.EXT.KMQT.GL.W.0006.210228T2200Z-210302T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMQT.UP.W.0005.210301T0300Z-210302T0200Z/
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
444 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
EST MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 9 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning, heavy freezing 
  spray at a rate of 2 cm per hour or greater expected, and may 
  rapidly accumulate on vessels. For the Gale Warning, northwest 
  winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and waves 11 to 16 ft 
  expected.

* WHERE...Marquette to Munising MI, Munising to Grand Marais MI, 
  Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI, Lake Superior East of a 
  line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI and West of a line 
  from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border Beyond 5NM from 
  shore and Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish 
  Point MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border.

* WHEN...For the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning, from 10 PM this 
  evening to 9 PM EST Monday. For the Gale Warning, from 5 PM 
  this afternoon to 7 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in heavy freezing spray is
  hazardous. Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic
  components inoperative. Rapid ice accretion on decks and
  superstructures may result in a catastrophic loss of stability.
  Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or
  damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should prepare for dangerous accumulation of ice on
their vessel. If possible, remain in port, avoid the warning area
or conduct mitigation.

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ162-281745-
/O.NEW.KMQT.UP.W.0005.210301T0000Z-210301T2000Z/
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-
444 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 /344 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021/

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM
CST/ THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST /2 PM CST/ MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy freezing spray at a rate of 2 cm per hour or 
  greater expected, and may rapidly accumulate on vessels.

* WHERE...Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to 
  Grand Portage MN beyond 5NM.

* WHEN...From 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 3 PM EST /2 PM 
  CST/ Monday.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in heavy freezing spray is 
  hazardous. Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic 
  components inoperative. Rapid ice accretion on decks and 
  superstructures may result in a catastrophic loss of stability.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should prepare for dangerous accumulation of ice on
their vessel. If possible, remain in port, avoid the warning area
or conduct mitigation.

&&

$$

BW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1217 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 354 PM EST FRI FEB 26 2021

A very weak cold front to our west (as shown by satellite) could
bring some light snowfall/flurries over our CWA tonight and Saturday
morning. Impacts from this snowfall should be minimal. Otherwise,
breezy conditions should continue across the CWA until well into the
evening. Temperatures have also reached the mid 40s in the interior
west today, and could get to the upper 40s in the south Saturday.
This could cause significant snowmelt, particularly in the areas
that should be seeing temperatures above freezing the longest. More
details follow below.

Temperatures today have been rather warm, as cloud cover has been
limited until recently in the west, and we have been under the warm
sector of a low pressure system. This has caused higher temperatures
at the surface than what was previously predicted, and thus higher
wind gusts via greater instability in the boundary layer. These
higher wind gusts have caused conditions to be breezy across the CWA
today, and model guidance suggests that these higher wind gusts will
continue until the evening hours (ensembles show 850mb winds over
the far west near and surpassing the 97th percentile).

Tonight, a weak cold front (as seen to the west on satellite) should
move across the area, bringing with it some light snow showers and
flurries. Forcing for this cold front is very weak, and models have
trended precipitation chances down to barely anything. Therefore,
expect no more than a dusting of snow from this. There shouldn't be
any 'big' impacts from this snowfall, although it would still be a
good idea to be careful if you are driving late tonight though, as
even a dusting of snow can create less traction on roadways. The
snowfall will probably be greatest in the far east, where there is
better agreement among the models that there is going to be some
snowfall. The cold front should be out of the area by Saturday
morning.

For Saturday, expect higher temperatures closer to the WI border as
scattered cloud cover looks to be over at least most of the U.P.
save for the south. Kept the previous fcst of maximum temperatures
from last night in, as model guidance was following the same thought
process; there should be weak WAA immediately behind the cold front,
and a lack of cloud coverage (and low wind speeds) should help the
temperatures in the south near Menominee county rise to the upper
40s. Elsewhere, temperatures should rise above freezing too.

There may be significant snowmelt today and Saturday across the
area, especially in the areas that are getting into the mid and
upper 40s. It will be interesting to see if this melting of the
snowfall so early will create fire wx problems in the future. Also,
there may be some refreezing of melted snow tonight, as temperatures
should drop back down to the upper 20s. Therefore, caution should be
exercised at some spots tonight and Saturday morning, especially
near unmelted snow and drainage areas, as you may run into a patch
of ice.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 425 PM EST FRI FEB 26 2021

The big story of the long-term continues to be the potential for a
quick-hitting snow storm on Sunday followed by a brief cold shot
Monday with associated lake effect snow and blustery conditions
leading to blowing snow.

Saturday night, a positive tilt long wave trough will be set up
across most of the CONUS. A short wave embedded within the SWerly
upper-level flow will quickly move from the Dakotas to near the U.P.
Over the past day or so, models have begun to resolve that short
wave digging farther south which will likely bring a brief burst of
synoptic snow in addition to whatever lake effect snow develops once
the cold air is in place. The subtle amplifying trend of the past
couple of days continued with today's model runs, such that now the
surface reflection of this wave is expected to be a sub-1000 mb low
by the time it reaches the Menominee River mid-morning Sunday. The
NAM has consistently been an outlier to all other guidance in
depicting a weaker, more strung-out low. While even the NAM produces
a few tenths of QPF, the heavier precip is found with the other
models. The GFS, in particular, resolves a strong fgen band
throughout the column that lifts north across the U.P. around 12-
15z. Given some -EPV* in the 600-700 mb layer along with this fgen,
a brief period of heavy snow is looking likely Sunday morning into
early Sunday afternoon with 1-2"/hr rates possible. Overall snowfall
totals will not be anything memorable (probably 2-4" most areas with
4-6" under the heaviest snow band) but these heavy rates, combined
with ground temps near or slightly above freezing leading to very
wet and slushy snow, will make for difficult travel for most of the
area on Sunday. An Advisory will almost certainly be needed in
subsequent packages. For now, have issued an SPS for Alger-Marquette-
Dickinson and points west highlighting the potential travel impacts
from this storm. South central and east, snow is likely to change
over to rain which will limit accumulations and associated travel
impacts.

The low will be lifting off to the northeast Sunday afternoon. The
strengthening pressure gradient on the back side of the low will
lead to a blustery NW wind developing in the afternoon. Winds will
then weaken briefly Sunday night, but pick back up again before
sunrise when a strong northern stream short wave drops southeastward
across Lake Superior. For several days, the GFS and the GEFS have
been resolving a deeper wave and colder temps while the EC and EPS
have been much flatter overall and not as cold. However, the past
two cycles of the EC, EPS, and UKMET have all trended towards the
colder/more amplified GFS solution with 850 mb temps dropping to
around -20 to -22 C by Monday afternoon. With this wave being
stronger and digging farther south, it looks like there will be a
brief round of snow showers over much of the area (not just the LES
belts) around 06-12z Monday. After 12z, lake effect will continue in
the NW wind snow belts. However, with the pattern being so
progressive, ridging will be moving in by late Monday afternoon
already leading to LES ramping down almost as quickly as it got
started. Could see an inch or two of fluffy snow on Monday, mainly
in the eastern snow belts. Otherwise it will be cold and blustery.
Highs in the teens along with gusts around 30 mph interior and 40+
mph along the Lake Superior shoreline will make the old adage about
March roaring in like a lion feel very true. The other concern
Monday morning will be that with temps dropping quickly, and
remaining slush will freeze solid. Untreated roads could be very
slippery for the Monday morning commute.

Tuesday continues to look much warmer and windy as has been
advertised for several days now. Have boosted SW winds with this
package into the 20-25 mph range for sustained winds and 30-35 mph
range for gusts based on model soundings showing the lowest 1-2 kft
remaining well mixed despite strong WAA/inversion above the PBL.
Mild temperatures are expected to continue Wednesday along with
weakening winds as weak ridging builds in from the west.

By Thursday, modeling centers diverge in the handling of the large
scale pattern. This discrepancy is most evident in the cluster
analysis of the ensembles (from the 00z cycle), which shows nearly
50% of the variance among the ensemble members is driven by
uncertainty in the magnitude of ridging (or lack thereof) over the
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. 96% of the GEFS (all but 1 member)
fall into two camps with +90 to +120 dam height anomalies at 500 mb
which would translate to impressive warmth. Meanwhile, 78% of the
EPS fall into the other two camps with neutral height anomalies or
even troughing overhead. Because of the drastic difference between
modeling centers, will not change the NBM deterministic highs, which
are generally around 40.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1217 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2021

VFR conditions should continue at all terminals into probably Sat
morning before a dry cold front drops through the area Sat afternoon
and evening and brings in low MVFR cigs into all the terminals with
an e-ne flow developing behind the front. South winds are
diminishing near the sfc late this evening but there will still be a
remnant jet max of 35-40 kts 1500-2000 ft off the sfc through 09Z to
warrant LLWS in TAFs at KCMX and KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 354 PM EST FRI FEB 26 2021

South to southwest winds of 30-35 knots across western Lake Superior
should diminish as the day continues; meanwhile, south to southwest
winds in the eastern lake should continue to increase to 30-40 knots
until after midnight tonight. Winds should become southwesterly at
15-25 knots late tonight across the lake. Saturday, winds should
become northerly at 20-25 knots, eventually becoming northeasterly
in the western lake and northwesterly in the eastern lake as a low
pressure approaches from the southwest. Expect the winds to become
all northeasterly across the lake early Saturday night at a speed of
20 knots or less; as the low moves off to the east Sunday,
northwest gales of 35-45 knots should develop in the central and
eastern lake. Expect winds to back to the south/southwest Monday,
and for gales of 30-40 knots across the lake Tuesday. Winds should
diminish and veer to the west Tuesday night, and become 20 knots or
less again by Wednesday.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 3 AM EST early this morning for LSZ243-244-
     249>251-264-266-267.

Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...RJC
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...TAP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Marquette MI
439 PM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

MIZ001>006-009>011-084-272145-
Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-
Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Southern Houghton-
439 PM EST Fri Feb 26 2021 /339 PM CST Fri Feb 26 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper
Michigan and central Upper Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A quick-moving winter storm is expecting to bring several inches
of slushy snow on Sunday. The snow could be heavy at times. This
storm will be followed by colder weather, blowing snow, and icy
conditions Sunday night and Monday. See the latest Special
Weather Statement for more details.

Waves on the east half of Lake Superior will build to 10 to 14
feet late Sunday night through Monday afternoon. The high waves
could lead to some minor beach erosion and localized lakeshore
flooding along the Lake Superior beaches in Alger and Luce
counties where substantial, windrowed shoreline ice is not
present.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

MIZ007-012>014-085-272145-
Luce-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-Northern Schoolcraft-
439 PM EST Fri Feb 26 2021 /339 PM CST Fri Feb 26 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Upper
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A mix of rain and snow is expected on Sunday which could lead to a
few inches of wet, slushy snow accumulation. This snow could make
for slippery driving conditions.

Waves on Lake Michigan will likely build to around 8 to 10 feet
on Tuesday which could lead to some minor beach erosion and
localized lakeshore flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-272145-
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
439 PM EST Fri Feb 26 2021 /339 PM CST Fri Feb 26 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake
Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

South gales to 40 knots will continue tonight across the east
half of Lake Superior. See the latest Marine Weather Message and
Open Lake Forecast for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Northwest gales of 35 to 40 knots are likely Sunday afternoon and
evening across the east half of Lake Superior.

Northwest gales to 45 knots are likely on Monday across much of
Lake Superior, especially central and eastern portions. Heavy
freezing spray is also likely during this time period as well.

See the latest Open Lake Forecast for more details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LMZ221-248-250-272145-
Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island
Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
439 PM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Northwest gales to 35 knots are likely on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

RJC