Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1243 PM CST Thu Dec 30 2021

.MESOANALYSIS UPDATE /Through Early This Evening/...A subtle
shortwave in southwesterly flow aloft will move across the area
this afternoon as a weak surface boundary slowly sags south into
interior southwest and south-central Alabama. Strong heating of
the warm sector airmass south of the front has allowed for
temperatures to rise into the lower 80s with dewpoints around 70
degrees. This is resulting in MLCAPE values between 1000-1500j/kg
per the latest 18z SPC mesoscale analysis. Deep convection is
ongoing along the low level convergence zone associated with the
frontal boundary. This boundary as it gradually sags south will be
the primary focus for additional storm development. Any deep
convection that can fire along the front will likely tap in to the
moderate instability and stronger deep layer shear to organize at
least mid level mesocyclones that will be capable of sporadic
bouts of large hail and damaging winds.

A few limiting factors will be the residual warm nose present
around 700mb across the warm sector (noted from 12z regional
soundings) and lack of stronger large scale ascent. In addition,
low level winds are on the weaker side and this may tend to hamper
more widespread wind damage potential.

Regardless, there is enough of a threat this afternoon across
interior southwest and south-central Alabama to support a few
isolated damaging wind gusts and bouts of large hail. Please
continue to closely monitor the situation throughout this
afternoon if you live or will be traveling across these areas.
Elsewhere, expect scattered showers and isolated storms to develop
but likely remain below severe limits.

Any strong to severe thunderstorm threat should diminish early
this evening with the loss of heating and instability. Dense fog
will likely become an issue later this evening near the coast and
across area bays and sounds where a favorable set up will exist as
warm humid air overspreads the cooler waters in these areas. /JLH

&&

.AVIATION...18z Issuance...Generally MVFR CIGs continue to prevail
through the early afternoon with VFR CIGs expected to return to
all terminals by the mid-afternoon. Winds will remains out of the
southwest around 10kts with higher gusts possible through the rest
of the afternoon. Tonight, winds diminish to generally around
5kts or less at all TAF sites. Showers, and a few isolated
thunderstorms are also possible throughout the day today. VSBY's
will remain VFR through the rest of the day at all TAF sites.
Going into tonight, expecting both CIGs begin lowering to MVFR
after sunset and then quickly lower to IFR, and possibly even LIFR
later tonight. VSBY's are also expected to gradually lower
tonight with IFR conditions expected around midnight as fog begins
to form especially closer to the coast given ideal conditions.
JEH/88

&&

.MARINE...Moderate southwesterly flow, with stronger gusts, will
persist through Friday. By Saturday, a strong cold front will
approach the marine zones, bringing with it strong southwesterly
winds, and building seas. In the wake of the front, strong
northwesterly flow, with the possibility of gale force gusts, is
expected for Sunday afternoon, and into the evening hours.
Additionally, seas will build to around 5-7 feet within 20 NM from
the coast, and up to 7-9 feet further offshore. Winds and seas
slowly begin to subside on Monday. /96

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 11 AM CST Friday
     for GMZ630>636-650-655.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
105 PM CST Thu Dec 30 2021

ALZ266-FLZ202-204-206-302115-
Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Coastal-
Including the cities of Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach,
Beulah, Ensley, Fort Pickens, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach,
Perdido Bay, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Destin, Eglin AFB,
Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Seminole, Valparaiso, and Wright
105 PM CST Thu Dec 30 2021

A narrow band of dense fog is currently impacting coastal Alabama
and western Florida Panhandle counties. Reductions in visibility
to less than one are possible especially when driving over bay
bridges and closer to the immediate coast. Motorists should
reduce speed if driving through these areas.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
136 PM CST Thu Dec 30 2021

ALZ053-054-302015-
Clarke AL-Wilcox AL-
136 PM CST Thu Dec 30 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Clarke
and southwestern Wilcox Counties through 215 PM CST...

At 135 PM CST, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 8 miles west of Thomasville, moving east at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Thomasville, Pine Hill and Yellow Bluff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CST for
south central and southwestern Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3202 8743 3190 8741 3186 8747 3184 8801
      3196 8800 3199 8777 3199 8767 3200 8766
      3200 8763 3201 8762 3203 8750
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 263DEG 30KT 3194 8789

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
137 PM CST Thu Dec 30 2021

ALZ058-302000-
Crenshaw AL-
137 PM CST Thu Dec 30 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Crenshaw County through 200 PM CST...

At 137 PM CST, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Glenwood, or near Luverne, moving east at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Luverne, Brantley, Rutledge and Glenwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CST for
south central Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3156 8629 3174 8633 3178 8615 3166 8615
      3166 8616 3165 8616 3163 8618 3162 8618
      3162 8615 3157 8615
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 259DEG 32KT 3167 8623

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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