Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1201 PM CST Mon Dec 6 2021

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday/...A moderate southerly flow
along the western periphery of a surface ridge of high pressure
continues to advect a moist airmass into our region with surface
dewpoints now in the mid to upper 60s. An upper level trough will
continue to deepen across the eastern U.S. today, while the
surface cold front pushing southward across central portions of
Mississippi and Alabama will move across our forecast area late
this afternoon and into this evening. Forcing for ascent will
increase along the frontal zone this afternoon and we expect a
line of convection to spread from northwest to southeast across
our forecast area this afternoon into early this evening.

Showers and storms will initially enter interior southeast MS and
southwest AL by around 1 PM today and should make it to a line
from Mobile, AL to Andalusia, AL by late this afternoon. Deep
layer shear values of 35-40 knots coincident with a narrow plume
of instability with MLCAPE values up to around 1000 J/KG just
ahead of the front may be sufficient to support localized wind
gusts of 40-60 mph with a few cells embedded along the convective
line this afternoon. A rotating storm or two cannot be ruled out
over interior southeast MS and southwest AL (up around Wayne and
Choctaw counties) as the line initially enters our CWA around
midday given localized 0-1 km SRH between 150-200 m2/s2. For now,
localized damaging winds appear to be the primary hazard with
convection today. The line should gradually weaken late this
afternoon into early this evening as instability wanes and
mid/upper level flow weakens. Locally heavy rainfall will also be
possible with the line today and up to 1-2" of rain with locally
higher amounts now look plausible within the heavier convective
segments.

The front is expected to push offshore tonight and should remain
draped over the northern Gulf into the day Tuesday. This frontal
boundary will be quite shallow as west to southwest flow aloft
will prevail in the deep layer just above the surface. Periodic
shortwaves in the W-SW flow pattern aloft will maintain isolated
to scattered showers and possibly a couple of thunderstorms
tonight and Tuesday given the available moisture and the presence
of weak elevated instability.

Highs today remain on track to range in the lower 70s across
interior southeast MS and southwest AL to the mid to upper 70s
across the remainder of the region. A colder northerly flow will
return across our forecast area tonight into Tuesday in the wake
of the frontal passage. Expect colder low temperatures in the 40s
across locations along and northwest of the I-65 corridor tonight
with readings in the 50s over the rest of the area. Highs on
Tuesday will probably not get out of the 50s along and northwest
of the I-65 corridor, and should be in the 60s across the rest of
south central AL and the western FL panhandle. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...A convective line of SHRA and embedded TSRA is
forecast to move from NW to SE across the local area along a cold
front from around 06.19Z-07.02Z. Southwesterly winds of 8 to 15
knots with gusts up to 25 knots will proceed the cold front,
along with MVFR ceilings. Localized wind gusts in excess of 30
knots along with lower ceilings and visibility restrictions to IFR
and lower-end MVFR criteria will accompany the convective line.
Northerly winds will increase to 5-10 knots following frontal
passage this evening into late tonight. Ceilings will remain in
the IFR and lower-end MVFR criteria through the remainder of the
forecast. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1212 PM CST Mon Dec 6 2021

ALZ051-052-MSZ067-061900-
Choctaw AL-Washington AL-Wayne MS-
1212 PM CST Mon Dec 6 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Choctaw,
northwestern Washington and Wayne Counties through 100 PM CST...

At 1211 PM CST, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 3 miles southwest of
Stonewall to near Mill Creek to 5 miles west of Ellisville. Movement
was southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Waynesboro, Butler, Clara, Buckatunna, Silas, Gilbertown and Toxey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 8811 3144 8846 3143 8894 3182 8894
      3185 8865 3189 8848 3217 8844
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 296DEG 35KT 3210 8883 3173 8897 3159 8929

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1259 PM CST Mon Dec 6 2021

ALZ051>053-MSZ067-075-076-062000-
Clarke AL-Choctaw AL-Washington AL-Perry MS-Greene MS-Wayne MS-
1259 PM CST Mon Dec 6 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Choctaw,
Washington, northwestern Clarke, northeastern Perry, eastern Wayne
and Greene Counties through 200 PM CST...

At 1259 PM CST, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles northwest of
Toxey to 7 miles west of Millry to 4 miles east of Richton. Movement
was southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chatom, Richton, Leakesville, Saint Stephens, Wagarville, Leroy,
Clara, Deer Park, Tibbie, Millry, State Line, Buckatunna, Silas,
Fruitdale, Coffeeville, Gilbertown and Toxey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3199 8810 3199 8781 3132 8798 3102 8860
      3140 8906 3143 8894 3168 8855 3190 8847
      3207 8845
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 306DEG 33KT 3198 8837 3160 8843 3136 8887

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH