Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1200 PM CDT Wed Sep 29 2021

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...A highly amplified upper
ridge currently extends from near the western Great Lakes to the
northeast Gulf coast and is located within an omega-style blocking
pattern over much of the CONUS. A modest shortwave trof embedded
within the eastern portion of a large western states upper trof
extends from the eastern Plains into Louisiana. A rather weak and
subtle portion of this shortwave trof extends across
marine/coastal portions of the forecast area where it has favored
mostly scattered showers/storms to develop this morning. The
shortwave trof overall becomes better defined while expanding
eastward across the forecast area tonight, then slowly shifts a
bit further eastward on Thursday. In response, a portion of the
upper ridge is pushed eastward into the extreme southeast states,
but model soundings show that despite this, drier air due to
subsidence effects associated with the upper ridge will continue
to impact the eastern portion of the forecast area. A surface
ridge generally remains in place over the eastern states through
the period while a surface trof extends northward across Texas
into the central Plains. The peripheral circulation associated
with both of these systems sets up a diffuse and rather weak zone
of lower level convergence roughly over Alabama through the
period, though it's not clear how much, if at all, this will
contribute to the potential for convective development given how
weak this feature is. Convection Allowing Models (CAMs) show
reasonable scenarios for anticipated convective development
through the period, and following upon this have opted to go with
likely pops this afternoon for the western half of the area
tapering to chance/slight chance pops over the eastern portion.
Similar coverage is anticipated for Thursday, and the lower pops
over the eastern portion each day will be due to the less
convectively favorable environment due to subsidence effects of
the nearby upper ridge. May see some strong storms develop each
afternoon, but severe storm development is not anticipated. Highs
this afternoon range from the lower 80s over the western portion
tapering to mid to upper 80s over the eastern portion. Highs on
Thursday will be a bit warmer, with lower to mid 80s over the
western portion ranging to mid 80s to near 90 over the eastern
portion. Lows tonight will be mostly in the upper 60s inland
ranging to the lower 70s at the immediate coast. A low risk of rip
currents is expected through Thursday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...IFR to MVFR ceilings will accompany and be near
showers and storms through the period, with the showers and storms
mainly affecting the western and central portions of the area.
VFR conditions are otherwise expected. Southerly winds 5 to 10
knots become light and variable tonight, then an easterly flow 5
to 10 knots follows for Thursday morning. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
209 PM CDT Wed Sep 29 2021

ALZ053-054-292000-
Clarke AL-Wilcox AL-
209 PM CDT Wed Sep 29 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Clarke
and west central Wilcox Counties through 300 PM CDT...

At 209 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 5 miles west of Thomasville, moving northeast at
5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Thomasville and Pine Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3200 8754 3179 8781 3186 8797 3199 8792
      3199 8767 3200 8766 3200 8763 3203 8762
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 225DEG 5KT 3188 8782

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH