Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
552 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Mostly clear with calm to light winds at the TAF
sites. A front is approaching from the northwest. VFR conditions
should persist through the TAF period, though cloudiness will
increase in the afternoon and any afternoon storms may result in
temporary visibility/ceiling reductions and/or stronger winds. The
main forecast concern will be the approach of a weak surface cold
front in the afternoon, triggering scattered showers and storms
in the vicinity of the TAF sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Tuesday/...

The main forecast concern in the near term is the arrival of a
weak surface cold front this afternoon. Pockets of locally heavy
rainfall and isolated stronger storms will be possible along the
frontal boundary as it advances towards the coast and stalls by
late afternoon/early evening. WPC brings the front over the MOB
CWA this afternoon and tonight before lifting it back north
Tuesday morning. The best rain chances will occur across the
western CWA counties in Mississippi and the western Alabama
counties in the CWA. Some areas could pick up a quick one to two
inches or more, mainly this afternoon and evening. WPC has placed
the aforementioned sensitive areas in a slight (10-20%) risk of
excessive rainfall for today, with the rest of the area in a
marginal risk. Opted not to go with a flash flood watch right now
since FFG is coming in, for example, between 3 and 5 inches
across most areas for a three hour period. This doesn't preclude
isolated flash flooding potential if storms line up over a
temporal interval. A marginal risk for much of the area will
continue on Tuesday. Overall rain amounts will be slightly less
and will arrive more evenly through the day.

SHORT TERM /Tuesday night Through Wednesday night/...

A mid level shortwave trough is progged to migrate eastward
across the Great Lakes region and the Midwest Tuesday night through
Wednesday night. The base of the trough may sag south and line up
over the Gulf coast during this period. Unsettled weather will
continue with another front due late in the period and increased
tropical moisture starting to enter the mix. The MOB CWA is
included in a marginal risk of excessive rain for at least Tuesday
night as elevated rain chances continue over the area. A swath of
high PWAT (> 2 inches) will persist over the area, supporting
additional rain.

At this point, the NHC continues to carry a 30% chance of
tropical cyclone formation over in the Gulf over the next 5 days.
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northern portion
of the Yucatan Peninsula and south-central Gulf of Mexico are
associated with a surface trough and an upper-level disturbance.
The system is forecast to move slowly northward or northeastward
over the central and then northeastern Gulf of Mexico, likely
reaching the northern Gulf coast in a few days. Although upper-
level winds are currently unfavorable for development to occur,
they are expected to become marginally conducive for tropical
cyclone formation in a couple of days.

EXTENDED TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...A robust mid level
system will move across the eastern United States on Thursday,
trailing a cold front across the Deep South. High pressure
advancing from the plains will push the front through Wednesday
night or Thursday, shifting winds to northwest. The front will
stall out over the Gulf. Any leftover tropical circulation will
scoot east along the front and out of the area on Thursday. Though
rainfall from Tuesday through Thursday could range from 2 to 4
inches, rainfall amounts on Thursday will be modest with the front
clearing the area. Drier conditions will develop from west to
east in the wake of the front Thursday night through Friday as
ridging begins to nudge into the region and as the tropical
feature slides to the east. However, isolated diurnally driven
convection will remain possible through the weekend as onshore
flow resumes and brings back the moisture.

MARINE...A light to moderate southerly flow and low seas will
persist through mid week. A front pushing to near the coast
tomorrow will keep isolated to scattered showers and storms in the
forecast. A tropical disturbance may lift north into the Central
Gulf by mid week which would increase winds, waves, and rain
chances. This disturbance is being monitored for development.
Another front is forecast to push through on Wednesday night into
Thursday, shifting marine winds to moderate northwest.

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
941 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

ALZ051>053-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-070000-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
Including the cities of Butler, Lisman, Silas, Chatom, Millry,
Grove Hill, Jackson, Thomasville, Waynesboro, Beaumont,
New Augusta, Richton, Leakesville, McLain, Wiggins, and Lucedale
941 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...

A slowly advancing cold front will produce moderate to heavy rain
this afternoon and evening. Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 3
inches will be possible with localized higher amounts during this
period. Soils are well saturated, meaning that prolonged heavy
rainfall could more readily produce runoff and flooding. Localized
flooding will be possible, especially in low lying areas. Water
will pond and possibly flood some roadways.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1118 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

MSZ075-076-079-061645-
Perry MS-Greene MS-George MS-
1118 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern George,
Perry and southwestern Greene Counties through 1145 AM CDT...

At 1117 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles northeast of Brooklyn, or 16 miles north of Wiggins, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Beaumont, New Augusta and McLain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3129 8915 3128 8874 3092 8876 3096 8914
      3100 8914 3101 8915
TIME...MOT...LOC 1617Z 271DEG 26KT 3110 8913

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Cady