Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1252 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...Upper level ridging steadily
builds into the region through Thursday as a subtle shortwave
tracks across the far southeastern U.S. this afternoon and
evening. Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to increase
in coverage across coastal sections of southwest Alabama and the
Florida panhandle. An agitated cumulus field is noted continuing
to develop and spread inland as temperatures warm, with a more
fair weather cumulus field over interior southwestern AL and the
FL panhandle. Expect these to continue to fester and gradually
develop as updrafts become better established, and anticipate a
gradual increase in convective coverage inland as a result mid to
late afternoon. SBCAPE values have already reached the 3,000 to
4,500j/kg range, likely maxing out this afternoon near 4,500 to
5,000j/kg. Likewise, MLCAPE has increased to near 2,500j/kg,
increasing to around 3,000j/kg by mid to late afternoon. This will
foster strong thunderstorm updrafts, and with DCAPE values
between 700 to 1,000j/kg, strong downdrafts as well. PWATs remain
elevated in the 1.9 to 2.1 inch range this afternoon, and will
help to bolster heavy rainfall potential in any thunderstorm.
Given the aforementioned DCAPE, gusty winds associated with some
stronger wet downbursts may be possible in any thunderstorm. In
addition to the thunderstorm threat, a heat advisory remains in
effect for all inland counties until 6PM CDT for heat indices
approaching and locally exceeding 108 degrees. Thunderstorm
coverage will gradually decrease as we move into tonight, with
some inland areas holding on to isolated to scattered
thunderstorms through the late evening hours. Temperatures are
slow to cool overnight, generally reaching a minimum near daybreak
in the middle to upper 70's.

A hotter and drier day overall is anticipated for Thursday, with
isolated to scattered thunderstorm coverage expected in the
afternoon hours as convective temperatures are reached and/or
storms fire off the seabreeze boundary. Given the more limited
coverage and strengthening ridge overhead, temperatures will
likely soar Thursday into the middle to upper 90's, possibly
touching 100 degrees in a few isolated spots of inland
southwestern Alabama. To go along with this, surface dewpoints
remain in the lower to perhaps even middle 70's for most locations
generating heat indices in the 106 to 111 range. This will
necessitate the issuance of another heat advisory for Thursday
late morning through late afternoon. The heat is unwavering into
the short term period Friday and Saturday, and heat advisories
will once again likely be needed for these days as we move
forward. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...VFR conditions prevail outside of scattered to at
times numerous showers and thunderstorms. Underneath showers and
storms, expect temporary/isolated reductions in ceiling and
visibility to MVFR/IFR categories. Showers and storms decrease in
coverage as we head into the night, with VFR conditions continuing
to prevail into tomorrow morning. MM/25

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060.

FL...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
321 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

FLZ205-282100-
Okaloosa Inland FL-
321 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHEASTERN OKALOOSA COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 320 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 11 miles northwest
of Eglin Air Force Base, or 12 miles east of Crestview, moving west
at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Crestview.

LAT...LON 3057 8659 3086 8660 3085 8639 3063 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 075DEG 11KT 3075 8637

JLH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
327 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

FLZ203-205-282115-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
327 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHWESTERN OKALOOSA AND SOUTHEASTERN SANTA ROSA COUNTIES UNTIL 415
PM CDT...

At 326 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 12 miles east of
Roeville, or 13 miles east of Bagdad, moving south at 10 mph.

Pea size hail, wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph, and frequent dangerous
cloud to groud lightning will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern
Okaloosa and southeastern Santa Rosa Counties.

LAT...LON 3049 8695 3049 8697 3050 8697 3053 8696
      3056 8692 3059 8694 3078 8687 3077 8669
      3046 8672 3047 8676
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 009DEG 7KT 3063 8680

JLH