Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
123 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday/...A mid to upper level trough
extending southwestward from the New England states/Appalachian
Mountains to the southern Great Plains will slowly sag southward
through the period, as an upper level low attempts to pinch over
the vicinity of the Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. An
associated weak surface frontal boundary will also slowly sag
southward into northern portions of MS/AL. Deep layer moisture
will remain across our forecast area ahead of the trough axis and
surface boundary, with precipitable water values ranging up to 2
to 2.25 inches. Deep layer ascent will be maintained over the
region as embedded shortwave impulses translate across central and
southern portions of MS and AL along the southern fringe of the
trough axis. As a result, the weather forecast will continue to
feature high rain chances along with potential for locally heavy
rainfall and a limited threat of flooding throughout the near term
period.

We will continue to carry high POPs between 60-80% this evening,
followed by a slight decrease to between 50-70% after midnight.
With the ongoing showers and thunderstorms heading into Tuesday
morning, we will increase POPs once again to between 70-90% by
late morning through the afternoon hours. Showers and storms that
develop will be capable of producing torrential downpours within
the high PWAT airmass and could easily drop to 2-4" of rainfall
and perhaps very locally over 5" in a short period of time, which
could result in localized flash flooding/urban flooding. While the
overall flash flooding threat currently appears localized enough
to preclude a Flash Flood Watch issuance, we will carry mention of
heavy rainfall in the forecast along with highlighting a limited
flash flooding threat over much of the area this afternoon and
evening in a local graphic. A few of the stronger storm cells both
days could produce localized wind gusts over 40 mph and frequent
lightning strikes considering MLCAPE values up to 1500-2500 J/KG.

High temperatures will remain below normal this afternoon and
Tuesday with the abundant cloud cover and high rain coverage, and
expect readings to generally range in the mid 80s. Lows tonight
remain seasonably warm in the lower 70s inland and in the mid to
upper 70s along the immediate coast and beaches. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...VFR conditions (CIGs & VISs) will mostly prevail
across a majority of the area through the period. Numerous to
widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms will remain
across the region into tonight. With this, localized areas of
MVFR/IFR conditions are possible near any of the stronger
convective development. Localized strong gusty winds and frequent
lightning will be possible with any of the stronger storms as
well. Otherwise, winds generally remain south-southwesterly
between 5-10 kts through the period. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
129 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021

ALZ059-060-FLZ203-205-191915-
Covington AL-Escambia AL-Okaloosa Inland FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
129 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA...SOUTHWESTERN COVINGTON...NORTHWESTERN
OKALOOSA AND NORTHERN SANTA ROSA COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

At 129 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles southeast
of Riverview, or 10 miles southeast of Brewton, moving east at 25
mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Riverview.

LAT...LON 3094 8649 3081 8723 3109 8706 3124 8677
      3122 8676 3121 8677 3120 8677 3119 8676
      3120 8674 3118 8673 3118 8672 3119 8672
      3119 8670 3127 8670 3130 8664
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 256DEG 23KT 3099 8697