Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
626 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Friday night/...General VFR conditions
were noted across the forecast area at 23z. South winds of 5 to
10 knots were noted across most of the area, around 10 knots
closer to the coast. Local MVFR conditions were noted in scattered
to numerous northward showers and thunderstorms, with the
greatest concentration over south-central Alabama north of the
western Florida Panhandle. These storms will slowly decrease in
coverage and intensity through the late afternoon hours into the
mid to late evening hours. Winds will ease to a light southerly
overnight, 5 to 10 knots along the coast. CIGs/VISBYs will be a
general VFR, with fog formation west of the Tombigbee River
bringing local MVFR conditions after 06z. This fog will quickly
mix out after sunrise. Another round of showers and thunderstorms
will develop beginning late Friday morning and lasting into the
afternoon hours. Movement is expected to be again northerly, with
local low to mid MVFR conditions along with locally variable winds
expected the stronger thunderstorms. winds will increase to
around 10 knots over the area during the morning hours.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...Scattered northward moving showers and
thunderstorms were noted along and east of I-65 at 6pm. A few have
become strong to severe this afternoon, with MLCapes around
2500J/kg indicated on the latest meso analysis. Am expecting a
decrease in coverage and strength into the evening hours as
temperatures cool and the day's instability is lost. No updates
needed with the current package.
/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Friday/...Upper level ridging
continues to extend from the western Atlantic into much of the
Southeast and northern Gulf through tonight. A coincident surface
high also remains in place over the Southeast. Therefore,
scattered showers and storms will continue to develop along the
seabreeze as it moves inland this afternoon. This convection is
expected to linger into the early evening hours. Overnight lows
dip into the lower 70s inland to the mid and upper 70s along the
coast. Meanwhile, patchy fog remains possible especially over
southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama early tomorrow morning
due to radiational cooling, calm winds, mostly clear skies.

By Friday, an upper level trough begins digging across the central
Plains and into the upper Midwest. The progression of this trough
causes the aforementioned upper level ridge to retreat back further
east. Model guidance also suggests weak upper level troughing
reaching the southeast. Down at the surface, the Bermuda high
pressure also begins retreating into the western Atlantic as a weak
surface boundary slowly begins moving into the Midwest and Middle
Mississippi Valley. In addition, easterly to southeasterly flow will
maintain a moist air mass, with PWAT's between 1.8 to 2 inches. The
majority of the forecast area will see scattered showers and storms
tomorrow around 40-50%. The exception will be in western portions of
the CWA, especially southeast Mississippi which will likely see
numerous showers and storms due to its proximity to the deepening
upper level trough. Expecting convection to generally follow a
diurnal trend where storms develop offshore in the early morning and
transition inland throughout the day. MLCAPE values around 2500 to
3000 J/Kg could also also support the development of a few strong
storms tomorrow afternoon. The main concerns with some of these
stronger storms will be frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and
gusty winds. Temperatures on Friday will generally be in the upper
80s to lower 90s across the area, although heat indices could creep
into the 100-103 degree range. /14

SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Sunday night/...A few showers
or storms from Friday afternoon may linger into the early evening
hours, but should quickly diminish over most locations before
redeveloping near the coast late Friday night into Saturday
morning. Modest upper level height falls are expected by Friday
night as ridging over the area weakens and retreats to the east.
This is in response to a trough axis that moves east out of the
Rockies and western Plains and be extending from the Great Lakes
south to the Lower MS River Valley by late Friday night. The same
general pattern then holds through Sunday night. The weakening
subsidence from the decaying ridge aloft, combined with PWATs in
the 1.5 to 1.9 inch range, and the influence of the nearby upper
trough just off to the west all suggest a return to scattered to
sometime numerous showers and thunderstorms for both Saturday and
Sunday (especially in the afternoon and early evening hours. As
has been the case in the past several forecast packages, we
maintained the highest rain chances over the western zones which
will be in closest proximity to the aforementioned trough and
where the most ample moisture will be pooled along the western
periphery of the low level ridge. No real changes in the
temperature forecast with upper 80s/low 90s for high temperatures
and low to mid 70s inland and upper 70s coastal for low
temperatures. Heat indices potentially climbing into the upper 90s
to low 100s each day. /12

EXTENDED TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...Weak ridging aloft
continues to break down into early next week with a mid level
trough settling down across the region. This will bring a return
of the wetter than normal pattern across the area. Very moist
airmass returns with PWATS again in 2.0 to 2.2 inches. As has
been the case for much of the summer, locally heavy rainfall will
again be possible, along with localized minor flooding, across
much of the area early next week. Although greater in coverage
(likely to perhaps categorical PoPs during the afternoon hours),
showers and storms will generally continue to follow our typical
diurnal convective summertime pattern through the period. Severe
potential appears to remain low at this time, but precip loading
and wet microbursts could produce some stronger gusty winds with
any of the stronger storms. As far as high temperatures as
concerned, slightly cooler with the more widespread showers and
storms and associated cloud cover, mainly in the mid to upper 80s
(but a few hit and miss lower 90s remains possible across inland
areas each day). Lows remain in the low 70s (maybe even a few
upper 60s) inland, with mid to upper 70s closer the coast. Heat
indices slightly cooler as well, mainly in the 90s. /12

MARINE...Light to occasionally moderate east southeast flow is
expected to persist through the weekend, with seas around 2 feet.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the marine area each
day, with coverage increasing as we go into early next week. The
main concerns with some of the stronger storms will be frequent
lightning, gusty winds, and locally higher seas. /14

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
304 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

FLZ205-206-152045-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Okaloosa Coastal FL-
304 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...EASTERN
OKALOOSA COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 302 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles north of
Valparaiso, moving north at 5 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Crestview and Niceville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3051 8657 3050 8666 3081 8667 3088 8650
      3080 8639 3051 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 191DEG 6KT 3060 8654

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
433 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

ALZ060-FLZ205-152215-
Covington AL-Okaloosa Inland FL-
433 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHWESTERN COVINGTON AND NORTH CENTRAL OKALOOSA COUNTIES UNTIL 515
PM CDT...

At 432 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles west of
Laurel Hill, or 15 miles west of Florala. This storm was
moving northeast at around 10 mph.

Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Laurel Hill.

LAT...LON 3104 8634 3091 8655 3098 8672 3100 8670
      3100 8669 3101 8670 3120 8657
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 232DEG 3KT 3099 8659

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
511 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

ALZ060-152300-
Covington AL-
511 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHEASTERN COVINGTON COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 511 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles east of
Florala. This storm was nearly stationary but was slightly building
to the northwest.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Florala and Lockhart.

LAT...LON 3100 8655 3127 8629 3117 8619 3100 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 125DEG 3KT 3102 8621

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
541 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

ALZ055>058-060-160015-
Monroe AL-Conecuh AL-Butler AL-Covington AL-Crenshaw AL-
541 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
BUTLER...NORTHEASTERN MONROE...CRENSHAW...CONECUH AND NORTHERN
COVINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 539 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of
Georgiana, or 11 miles south of Greenville, moving north at 10 mph.
Other intense thunderstorms in this statement area of south Central
Alabama will develop during the next 90 minutes ahead of an outflow
boundary moving gradually northward. each separate cell will have a
slow northward drift less than 10 mph.

Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Andalusia, Greenville, Opp, Evergreen, Luverne, Georgiana, Brantley,
McKenzie, River Falls, Castleberry, Red Level, Rutledge, Dozier,
Repton, Heath, Gantt, Glenwood, Petrey, I65 And US 84 and Highland
Home.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3153 8620 3113 8619 3127 8659 3128 8738
      3183 8693 3183 8691 3196 8682 3196 8641
      3205 8641 3205 8632 3197 8630 3196 8619
      3179 8620 3179 8615 3166 8615 3162 8618
      3162 8615 3154 8615
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 187DEG 8KT 3167 8662

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
642 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

ALZ053>057-262-160115-
Clarke AL-Wilcox AL-Baldwin Inland AL-Monroe AL-Conecuh AL-Butler AL-
642 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...WESTERN BUTLER...MONROE...NORTH CENTRAL BALDWIN...
SOUTHEASTERN CLARKE...SOUTHEASTERN WILCOX AND CENTRAL CONECUH
COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 640 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 10 miles north of Evergreen to near Repton to 9 miles
west of McCullough, and moving northwest at 10 mph.

The main impacts will be up to half inch hail and wind gusts of 40
to 50 mph within the statement area which now will affect portions
of interior southwest Alabama, mainly along and just northwest of
the I-65 Corridor during through 815 PM CDT.

Locations impacted include...
Monroeville, Jackson, Evergreen, Frisco City, Grove Hill, Peterman,
Georgiana, Uriah, Whatley, McKenzie, Excel, Beatrice, Vredenburgh,
Repton, Pine Apple and I65 And US 84.

LAT...LON 3152 8668 3126 8744 3126 8748 3123 8755
      3124 8762 3120 8762 3115 8775 3165 8797
      3205 8694 3205 8691
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 129DEG 8KT 3158 8695 3138 8727 3120 8767