Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
627 AM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Saturday/...Upper level ridging
dominates the forecast period through Saturday with surface high
pressure remaining stretched out into the southeastern U.S. from
the southwestern Atlantic. PWATs remain in the 1.8 to 2.1 inch
range through the day today, and once again expect at least
scattered to perhaps numerous coverage in thunderstorm activity by
early to mid afternoon over the region. This activity should wane
with loss of daytime heating by tonight, and we rinse and repeat
this pattern into Saturday. Currently anticipate main hazard with
showers and storms to be heavy rainfall given slow forward motions
along with high PWATs. This may promote some localized areas of
flash flooding where heavy rainfall has been a nuisance in recent
days. Additionally, given strong precip loading can't rule out an
isolated strong wind gust or two under any heavy thunderstorm,
although do not anticipate any organized severe weather at this
time with very weak shear across the area. Temperatures warm into
the middle to upper 80's today, followed by upper 80's to lower
90's on Saturday. Temperatures have fallen into the middle 70's,
with upper 70's and some lower 80's along the immediate coast
this morning. Tonight expect lows to drop into the middle to upper 70's
once again. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...VFR conditions prevail this morning with only a few
low level clouds around FL015 present across the region and a
broken to overcast ceiling in the mid levels above FL120. Expect
VFR ceilings and visibility to prevail today, with only potential
impacts being scattered to at times numerous showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening. Under any of
these showers and storms, expect temporary reductions in ceiling
and visibility. After sunset tonight, showers and storms wane and
VFR conditions prevail with an overcast ceiling around FL100.
MM/25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 417 AM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Saturday/...Upper level ridging
dominates the forecast period through Saturday with surface high
pressure remaining stretched out into the southeastern U.S. from
the southwestern Atlantic. PWATs remain in the 1.8 to 2.1 inch
range through the day today, and once again expect at least
scattered to perhaps numerous coverage in thunderstorm activity by
early to mid afternoon over the region. This activity should wane
with loss of daytime heating by tonight, and we rinse and repeat
this pattern into Saturday. Currently anticipate main hazard with
showers and storms to be heavy rainfall given slow forward motions
along with high PWATs. This may promote some localized areas of
flash flooding where heavy rainfall has been a nuisance in recent
days. Additionally, given strong precip loading can't rule out an
isolated strong wind gust or two under any heavy thunderstorm,
although do not anticipate any organized severe weather at this
time with very weak shear across the area. Temperatures warm into
the middle to upper 80's today, followed by upper 80's to lower
90's on Saturday. Temperatures fall into the middle 70's, with
upper 70's along the immediate coast this morning. Tonight expect
lows to drop into the middle 70's once again. MM/25

SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Sunday night/...An upper
trough will try to dig southward, however it will be blocked by a
building ridge over the western Atlantic. At the sfc, southerly
flow will continue with precipitable water values of 1.7 to 1.9
inches. This will result in a typical summertime diurnal
convective pattern with scattered showers and thunderstorms during
the day and isolated coverage overnight. Highs on Sunday will be
in the upper 80s and low 90s. Lows remain very muggy, in the low
to mid 70s inland to mid and upper 70s along the coast. /13

EXTENDED TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...A typical summertime
pattern is the name of the game throughout the extended. A
building upper level ridge over the Atlantic begins to creep
westward over much of the southeast which prevents an upper level
trough centered over the central U.S. from digging. Therefore,
this upper level trough weakens and begins to lift northeast by
early next week allowing the upper level ridging to continue
building west over the southeast and Gulf of Mexico. At the
surface, a low pressure over the Mississippi Valley region lifts
northeast and drags a cold front into the ArkLaTex region early in
the period. This cold front quickly dissipates as high pressure
builds in from the east.

Showers and thunderstorms can therefore be expected each day, with
Monday having the highest coverage (likely PoPs) due to the encroaching
surface front. Scattered showers and storms return on Tuesday and
through the rest of the period as high pressure builds. Convection will
generally be diurnally driven where storms peak offshore overnight and
in the early morning and then develop inland during the afternoon
hours. Sufficient moisture will be in place due to southeasterly flow
with PWAT's between 1.7 to 2.0 inches. Adequate CAPE will also be
present so a few strong storms could be possible.

High temperatures will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s,
although heat indices start creeping into the upper 90s to low 100s.
Meanwhile, overnight lows dip into the lower 70s inland with mid to
upper 70s along the coast. /14

MARINE...A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow
persists through Tuesday. Seas remain around 2 feet through Sunday,
building slightly into the early part of next week. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms remain possible over the marine area
through the period, especially during the late night and early
morning hours. Lightning, gusty winds, and locally higher seas will
accompany any stronger storms throughout the period.

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1255 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

ALZ059-FLZ203-091845-
Escambia AL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
1255 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...EASTERN
ESCAMBIA AND NORTHEASTERN SANTA ROSA COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

At 1255 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located near Pollard, or
4 miles southwest of Brewton, moving east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts of up to 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Brewton, East Brewton, Jay, Pollard and Riverview.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8679 3090 8679 3093 8720 3097 8721
      3100 8716 3100 8722 3115 8725 3126 8694
      3126 8678 3100 8675
TIME...MOT...LOC 1755Z 266DEG 19KT 3107 8715